MGLE01: CODEL DODD MEETS GENERAL MICHEL AOUN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 001238

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/WERNER/SINGH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/19/2016
TAGS: IS KDEM LE PGOV PREL SY
SUBJECT: MGLE01: CODEL DODD MEETS GENERAL MICHEL AOUN

Classified By: Charge Christopher W. Murray. Reason: Section 1.4 (b)
and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) leader Michel Aoun
informed visiting Senator Christopher Dodd that it was up to
the Lebanese people themselves to defend their sovereignty
and not rely excessively on foreign assistance. He
criticized the Siniora government for not doing an effective
job in improving security and promoting economic development.
General Aoun believed that his February 6th memorandum of
understanding with Hizballah had significantly constrained
its political ambitions and room to maneuver, specifically,
Hizballah had been forced to state its goals in Lebanese
terms (i.e. Shebaa Farms) rather than regional ambitions
(i.e., Jerusalem). Regarding the Syrian regime and its
suspected culpability in the assassination of Rafiq Hariri,
Aoun stated that those guilty of the crime would be held
responsible, but at the same time it was critical that
Lebanon re-establish amicable relations with its most
important neighbor. Lastly, Senator Dodd explained the case
of an abducted AMCIT minor child and the importance the U.S.
government placed on the expeditious return of the child, who
is presently being held in the Hizballah-controlled town of
Baalbak. Michel Aoun said he would look into the matter and
would try to use his influence with Hizballah to assist. End
summary.


2. (U) Senator Christopher Dodd met with FPM Leader Michel
Aoun at his residence in Rabieh on April 19. The Charge, as
well as the Senator's chief of staff and military aide, also
attended the meeting.

LEBANON'S CHALLENGES
--------------


3. (C) In response to Senator Dodd's inquiry on the overall
situation, Michel Aoun said that Lebanon is already a
sovereign, independent country, but its people were so
intimidated by almost 30 years of Syrian rule that they did
not yet know how to act as full citizens. Commenting that
many Lebanese are "not used to freedom," the former leader of
the Lebanese Armed Forces explained that this absence of the
experience of freedom was why so many citizens still look to
foreign powers for guidance and decisions. Aoun said he has
urged the present government to stop complaining and act,
particularly in the areas of security and the economy.


4. (C) Aoun noted that Lebanon's economy had experienced
zero growth over the past year. Lebanon was missing out on
potential investment due to a lack of transparency and the
uneven application of the rule of law. Aoun maintained that
the Siniora government must rein in corruption and control
the growth of the national budget, whose excesses over the
past years had produced $38 billion in sovereign debt burden.


5. (C) Aoun stated that Siniora's proposed economic reform
plan relied too much on increased taxes and restructuring
debt loads. He said the prime minister's plan didn't address
structural problems, particularly the lack of adequate
investment in the agricultural and service sectors, and
inequitable treatment across Lebanon's geographic areas.
Assuring his listeners that the Free Patriotic Movement was
not against liberalization and privatization, Aoun did insist
the government should pay closer attention to the everyday
economic concerns of its citizenry.


6. (C) Concerning Lebanon's still uncertain security
situation, Aoun stated that illegal arms shipments continue
to cross the country's borders. He described a recent news
report that had televised a recent arms shipment and asked
how was it possible that the government could not stop such
open activity. He maintained that it was the government's
primary responsibility to defend its borders and establish
security for its citizens.


7. (C) He acknowledged that the difficult political
situation, with a pro-reform prime minister and a pro-Syrian
president, had played a role in the tenuous security
environment. He implicitly agreed that it would be better if
President Emile Lahoud were to leave office. But he observed
that Lahoud simply wouldn't leave of his own accord, and the
parliamentary majority, led by Saad Hariri's March 14
coalition, would not enter into an honest dialogue on how to
replace him. Referring to the constitutional requirement
that a presidential election needs a two-thirds vote in the

BEIRUT 00001238 002 OF 003


parliament, Aoun stated his belief that despite their
majority, the March 14 coalition will not be able to reach
that threshold.

HIZBALLAH: IRANIAN PROXY OR LEBANESE ENTITY
--------------



8. (C) In answer to Senator Dodd's question on Hizballah's
intentions, Michel Aoun conceded that the organization had
previously been a rogue element in Lebanese politics and had
long served the interests of Iran and Syria. But he argued
that his recent "memorandum of understanding" with Hizballah
leader Hassan Nasrallah had effectively pinned the
organization into a corner. He said that where Hizballah's
rhetoric used to call for the liberation of all occupied
territories, now it was limited to Shebaa Farms. Where
Hizballah used to call for the release of all Palestinian
prisoners, now it called only for the two or three Lebanese
in Israeli jails; where Hizballah used to claim its weapons
could be employed throughout the region, now it felt
constrained to say they would be used only to liberate
Lebanese territory; and where Hizballah used to claim the
ill-defined "seven villages," now it limits itself to a small
slice of the Lebanese-Israeli frontier. Aoun reasoned that
such movement was not insignificant and should not be
dismissed.


9. (C) When Senator Dodd expressed concern about whether
Hizballah could be trusted, the former general asked whether
Lebanon had any alternative. He pointed out that since the
February 6th memorandum of understanding was signed, the
border area in south Lebanon had been very quiet. Aoun
maintained that Hizballah, despite its religious and
philosophical ties to Tehran, had to create a Lebanese
identity; otherwise it would be isolated and inevitably
weakened. Aoun expressed confidence that Hizballah could be
brought into the fold, but insisted he would remain aware of
their its loyalties. When Senator Dodd advised the general
to keep an eye on them, Aoun retorted he would be even more
prudent and use "both eyes."

LEBANON'S FUTURE
--------------


10. (C) Michel Aoun conveyed his concern that Lebanon had
often found itself the site of other countries' battles due
to its strategic and vulnerable location, as well as its
sectarian composition. He said it was essential that the
country not become involved in further regional strife and
that it establish and rigorously protect its domestic
security. Toward that end. Aoun stated it was important to
disarm the Palestinian militias located inside Lebanon, first
dealing with those outside the refugee camps, but resolutely
following up with Palestinian arms inside the camps.


11. (C) He agreed with the senator that Hizballah's arms
also had to be dealt with to ensure the democratic nature of
Lebanon. But Aoun maintained the disarmament of Hizballah
was a complicated and difficult issue that had to be resolved
through discussions within Lebanon. He felt the
Aoun-Nasrallah memorandum and the National Dialogue process
had begun such discussions, but implied it would require
external developments (i.e. Shebaa Farms) as well.


12. (C) Aoun commented that the Islamic world still adheres
to 14th century values and Lebanon, as an Arab country, had
to find a way to reconcile its freedom and democracy with the
environment in which it was located. He said that
Hizballah's ties with Iran could be explained in this context
-- it was based on strong religious and cultural ties, but it
would not preclude Hizballah from effectively participating
in political life of a democratic Lebanon. "Why
unnecessarily make enemies with Hizballah," Aoun concluded,
"let us see what their actions will be."


13. (C) Concerning the relationship between Hizballah and
Hamas, Aoun said it was clear the two terrorist organizations
supported each other politically, but he doubted military
assistance was part of the equation. He also reasoned that
Hamas' acute financial condition would prevent it from
extending its influence outside the occupied territories
anytime soon. Aoun further proposed that due to the February
6th memorandum, Hizballah's political doctrine was steadily
diverging from Hamas' hard-line positions.

RELATIONSHIP WITH SYRIA
--------------

BEIRUT 00001238 003 OF 003




14. (C) Although "there are 1,000 reasons to believe Syria
was responsible" for the assassination of Rafiq Hariri, Aoun
advised that all concerned wait for the results of the UNIIIC
investigation. He acknowledged that Syrian regime
involvement in the crime would definitely complicate the
Lebanese-Syrian relationship, but it would not terminate it.
He maintained that the bilateral relationship was too
important to ignore and said that everyone in Lebanon desired
that there be diplomatic relations, demarcated borders, and
the release of all political prisoners. He emphasized the
numerous common interests between the two countries,
particularly economic, and stated normalized relations would
be between the nations, not individuals.


15. (C) He conceded that recent history and Syrian
intransigence made normal relations difficult to achieve, but
insisted that, "we have to continue." He acknowledged the
many acts of political violence, several of which had taken
the lives of former Lebanese leaders, but that the
Syria-Lebanon relationship was too critical to avoid.

ABDUCTED USCIT CHILD
--------------


16. (SBU) Senator Dodd explained to General Aoun the case
of an abducted USCIT minor child and the importance of
effecting an immediate return of the child to U.S. custody,
consistent with U.S. and Lebanese court decisions. Aoun
listened carefully and indicated he was sympathetic to the
plight of the young U.S. citizen. Acknowledging his ability
to deal directly with Hizballah's leadership, Aoun asked for
specific details so that he could approach the organization.
Embassy Beirut will provide the applicable information and
diligently pursue this initiative.


17. (U) This message has been cleared by CODEL Dodd.
MURRAY