PRC/INDIA: ACADEMICS SKEPTICAL OF U.S.-INDIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIJING 005972

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/30/2016
TAGS: PREL KNNP ETTC ENRG IAEA IN PK CH
SUBJECT: PRC/INDIA: ACADEMICS SKEPTICAL OF U.S.-INDIA
CIVILIAN NUCLEAR DEAL IN MEETING WITH VISITING STAFFDEL
GILLEY

REF: BEIJING 5272

Classified By: Political External Unit Chief Edgard Kagan. Reasons 1.4
(b/d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) In reaction to the U.S.-India civilian nuclear
cooperation agreement, China should review the multilateral
agreements it participates in that the United States is also
a party to, according to the China Institutes for
Contemporary International Relations Assistant President Yang
Mingjie. Beijing is concerned that the U.S. government
favors bilateral ties over multilateral mechanisms and is
working to undermine multilateral organizations. The PRC
worries that the U.S.-India agreement will negatively impact
and erode the authority of the Nonproliferation Treaty and
the Nuclear Suppliers Group. China's position on the nuclear
cooperation agreement is based on formal principles and is
not country specific. China objects to the deal because it
violates international treaties and weakens multilateral
organizations. Furthermore, the agreement has the ability to
undermine regional stability, could spark competition in
nuclear cooperation and increases the possibility of
terrorists acquiring nuclear material. Pakistan has asked
China for help with its civilian nuclear program but it has
criticized the PRC for being reluctant to cooperate. Beijing
has had no formal contact with New Delhi regarding the
proposed agreement. End Summary.

PRC Should Reassess Multilateral Agreements
--------------


2. (C) Visiting Staffdel Gilley met March 22 with academics
from the China Institutes for Contemporary International
Relations (CICIR),a government-sponsored think-tank
reportedly affiliated with the Ministry of State Security, to
discuss the U.S.-India Civilian Nuclear Cooperation
Agreement. The comments amplified concerns the Staffdel
heard the previous day from an MFA Arms Control official
(reftel). CICIR Assistant President Yang Mingjie said China
should review the multilateral agreements it participates in
with United States in light of the U.S.- India civilian
nuclear cooperation agreement. Beijing is concerned that the
U.S. Government favors bilateral ties over multilateral
mechanisms and is working to undermine multilateral
organizations. Yang said that the proposed U.S.-India
civilian nuclear cooperation agreement is just another
example of what China perceives as a "trend" of the United
States downgrading the importance of multilateralism. Yang
complained that the US-India agreement allows the United
States to act as the arbiter of which countries are deemed
responsible.

Impact on NPT and the NSG
--------------


3. (C) The CICIR academics worry the U.S.-India deal will
negatively impact and erode the authority of the
Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) and the Nuclear Suppliers Group
(NSG). Yang asked the point the NPT if a country can decide
on its own whether to sell nuclear technologies to a non-NPT
member. (Comment: Overlooking the history of PRC cooperation
with Pakistan. End Comment.) Beijing is concerned that a
new international code of conduct will develop as a result of
the U.S.-India deal. In response to McCormick's comment that
the IAEA Director General had endorsed the agreement as
beneficial to strengthen nuclear safeguards, CICIR Deputy
Director for the Institute of Strategic Studies Ouyang Liping
claimed that the United States "overly influences" ElBaradei.
Yang noted that as relatively new member of the NSG, an
organization that China has long tried to become a party to,
Beijing now has questions for the NSG on its decision-making
mechanisms. China most likely will observe how the NSG
handles the U.S-India deal rather than presenting its
opinions on the issue. However, the PRC is concerned that
the NSG faces the same dilemma as the NPT. If one country is
willing to make unilateral decisions, then "what's the
point," Yang asked. The PRC also sees civilian cooperation
as just the tip of the iceberg and worries that the United
States in the future will make concessions to India on
missile programs as well.

Impact on Regional Stability
--------------


4. (C) The U.S.-India agreement has the potential to

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undermine regional stability and has serious implications for
South Asian relations, according to Yang. The deal could
also create competition in nuclear cooperation between the
United States, the European Union and Russia, since the three
will want to sell nuclear technologies to India. Dr. Li Wei,
Director of the CICIR Center for Counterterrorism Studies,
also pointed out that the competition to sell nuclear
technologies could lead to the proliferation of WMD to
terrorists as companies rush to gain footholds in new
markets. The deal also undermines international efforts to
prevent and eliminate nuclear weapons programs in the DPRK
and Iran, according to Yang.

Perspective on Pakistan
--------------


5. (C) The U.S.-India deal was a "slap on the face" for
Pakistan President Musharraf, Yang stated. Musharraf has a
precarious hold on power and Pakistani opposition to the deal
could lead to protests that challenge Musharraf's position.
Yang said that the deal has made it difficult for Musharraf
to defend Pakistan's cooperation with the United States to
fight terrorism while the United States ignores Pakistan's
concerns about India's growing military strength. Hu
Shisheng, Director of CICIR's South Asian Studies Division,
said that the deal has destroyed the nuclear balance between
Pakistan and India and as a result Pakistan feels threatened.
This will have a negative effect on the Pakistan-India peace
process. Pakistan's foreign policy is India-centered and its
success is measured by keeping pace with India's foreign
policy achievements, Hu argued.


6. (C) Hu asked if the United States is willing to consider
compensating Pakistan to in order to balance the deal with
India and if so, how might India react? China is concerned
about the creation of a vicious circle of balancing India and
Pakistan relations. McCormick responded that the United
States conducts its foreign policy with India and Pakistan on
an individual basis and does not link the two countries. At
the same time, the United States is aware that Pakistan will
be seeking some sort of compensation as a result of the
U.S.-India nuclear agreement. McCormick asked the Chinese
side what sort of response Pakistan has sought from China?
Dr. Yang said that Pakistan has asked China for help with its
civilian nuclear program but is not satisfied with Beijing's
response. Pakistan has criticized the PRC for being
reluctant to cooperate with Islamabad on nuclear issues.
Yang said that it is not easy to work with Pakistan, noting
that the society is divided between different extremist
factions and some regard both the United States and China as
enemies since they cooperate with India. Yang claimed that
is why Chinese citizens are being killed in Pakistan.

Perspective on India
--------------


7. (C) Pointing out that India needs to understand how other
countries will react to its participation in the U.S.-India
agreement, Gilley asked the academics if China has had direct
discussion with India on the deal. Dr. Yang said that
Beijing has had no formal contact with New Delhi regarding
the proposed agreement. (Comment: This does not track with
some of our discussions with MFA officials, who have
mentioned briefings by the Indians in Beijing as well as New
Delhi. End comment.) China's position on the nuclear
cooperation agreement is based on formal principles and is
not country specific, he asserted. China objects to the deal
not because it involves the United States and India but
because the deal violates international treaties and weakens
multilateral organizations and mechanisms. Yang said that
India is not worried about other countries, attitudes
towards it and is very relaxed about possible international
opposition to the agreement. New Delhi has said that it is
the United States' responsibility to assuage international
angst over the proposed deal.

How Will India Declare its Nuclear Programs?
--------------


8. (C) Beijing is concerned about how India will declare its
civilian nuclear reactors, stated Ouyang, who asked if the
U.S. Congress will put preconditions or caps on the deal.
Ouyang said that it is dangerous not to have oversight of
India's nuclear military facilities. Beijing is concerned
that future reactors built in India will fall outside of IAEA
safeguards and oversight as China believes the U.S.-India
agreement encourages India to label new reactors as part of
its military program. Dr. Yang pointed out that the United

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States aided India's civilian nuclear program in the 1950s
and 1960s only to have the India's use the assistance to
build a weapons program.

Participants
--------------


9. (U) U.S. Participants:

-- Kristen Gilley, Senior Professional Staff, Committee on
International Relations
-- James McCormick, Staff Director of the Subcommittee on
Asia and the Pacific
-- Paul Kreutzer, Embassy Control Officer
-- Elise Williamson, Embassy Notetaker


CICIR Participants:

-- Yang Mingjie, Assistant President of CICIR and Director of
the Institute for Security and Strategic Studies
-- Ouyang Liping, Deputy Director, CICIR Institute for
Security and Strategic Studies
-- Hu Shisheng, Director, Division for South Asian Studies,
CICIR Institute of Asia and African Studies
-- Li Wei, Director, CICIR Center for Counterterrorism Studies
-- Li Xie, CICIR International Exchanges program officer


10. (U) Staffdel Gilley did not have the opportunity to clear
this cable.
RANDT