Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BEIJING4761
2006-03-14 10:35:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Beijing
Cable title:  

SCHOLAR DISCUSSES PRC ANALYSIS OF QDR AND

Tags:  PINS PGOV PREL CH JP 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO7877
PP RUEHCN
DE RUEHBJ #4761 0731035
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 141035Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY BEIJING
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0224
INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIJING 004761 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/13/2016
TAGS: PINS PGOV PREL CH JP
SUBJECT: SCHOLAR DISCUSSES PRC ANALYSIS OF QDR AND
TRANSFORMATIONAL DIPLOMACY, ROLE OF XIONG GUANGKAI,
JAPAN-CHINA ISSUES

Classified By: Political External Chief Edgard Kagan.
Reason 1.4 (d)

QDR and Transformational Diplomacy
----------------------------------

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIJING 004761

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/13/2016
TAGS: PINS PGOV PREL CH JP
SUBJECT: SCHOLAR DISCUSSES PRC ANALYSIS OF QDR AND
TRANSFORMATIONAL DIPLOMACY, ROLE OF XIONG GUANGKAI,
JAPAN-CHINA ISSUES

Classified By: Political External Chief Edgard Kagan.
Reason 1.4 (d)

QDR and Transformational Diplomacy
--------------


1. (C) Chinese analysts are closely scrutinizing the
Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) and Secretary Rice's
"Transformational Diplomacy" speech, according to
Professor Jin Canrong, Associate Dean of the School of
Strategic Studies at Renmin University. During a
meeting with Poloff March 8, Jin, a prominent
commentator on U.S.-China and Asian issues, said
analysis of the QDR focused on the exact number of
mentions of China in the document and on the context
of the PRC's description as a "country at strategic
crossroads" and as a country with the potential to
compete militarily with the United States. Secretary
Rice's Transformational Diplomacy Initiative raised
concerns about "real U.S. intentions" behind the focus
on democratization and plans to send more diplomats
into the PRC.

PLA International Affairs: Xiong Out of the Game
-------------- ---


2. (C) Asked about the role of recently retired
Deputy Chief of General Staff General Xiong Guangkai,
Jin stated that Xiong no longer has much of a role in
the PLA's international activities because he has left
his most influential position as commander of the PLA
General Staff's Second Directorate. President Hu
Jintao's principles of professionalization,
institutionalization and division of labor, Jin said,
do not concentrate power in individuals, but designate
responsibilities to be handled by the proper
authority. MG Zhang Ginseng, who took over
responsibility for the PLA Second Directorate, will
handle the PLA's international affairs, according to
Jin.

PRC-Japan
--------------


3. (C) The development of U.S.-China relations may
offer a model for Sino-Japan rapprochement, Jin
stated. He discussed his involvement in a recent
Sino-Japan seminar in Tokyo sponsored by Japanese
Chief Cabinet Secretary Abe's office. The
participants were mainly working-level Japanese career
officials who work on foreign policy. Jin presented a
paper on the development of U.S.-China ties, which he
said his interlocutors viewed as a model for the
recovery of strained Sino-Japan relations. Though Jin
said that most of the Japanese participants agreed on
the need to restore stable long-term relations with
the PRC, Jin said, some officials confessed a "deep
hearted" fear about a "rising China" which constrains
them from promoting good relations with the PRC.


4. (C) Jin claimed that his Japanese interlocutors
described feeling a sense of "drift" and discomfort
with Japan's strategic direction. Although Prime
Minister Koizumi is offering an activist foreign
policy strategy for Japan, it is not universally
accepted among career officials that his direction is
the right one. Jin said some participants expressed
hope that other politicians will not follow PM Koizumi
in playing up Yasukuni Shrine visits.
RANDT