CHINA'S LEGISLATIVE SESSION TO FOCUS ON ECONOMY;

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 003853

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/02/2025
TAGS: PGOV ECON PHUM SOCI CH
SUBJECT: CHINA'S LEGISLATIVE SESSION TO FOCUS ON ECONOMY;
CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT BUILDING RURAL AREAS

Classified By: Political Section Internal Unit Chief
Kin Moy. Reasons 1.6 (b,d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) China's annual spring political theater, known
locally as "the two meetings," kicks off on March 3
with the opening session of China's leading
consultative body followed by the opening of the
annual legislative session on March 5. No major
personnel changes are expected this year and the focus
of discussions will be on the 11th Five-Year Program
for the economy in 2006-2010. Scholars and NPC
insiders said they do not expect major disagreements
to emerge during the meetings, but said differences
exist over implementation. As in past years,
Beijing's police have been busy detaining activists
and petitioners in a bid to minimize the possibility
of embarrassing protests. Security and other
elaborate measures are part of the careful
choreography that will allow the Chinese Government to
present a facade of unity and stability to its people
and the outside world. End summary.


2. (C) China's National People's Congress,
technically the highest organ of state power, will
convene its annual legislative session this year on
March 5-14. This national political pageant, which
runs in parallel with the largely ceremonial Chinese
People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC)
session from March 3-12, is designed by the Chinese
Communist Party leadership to confirm and to project
popular support for Party decisions and policies. The
session agenda, reports and votes are all carefully
choreographed and leave little to chance.
Nonetheless, the "two meetings" provide an important
window on Chinese politics, policy direction and
public perceptions of the Government. The nearly
3,000 deputies have begun to stream into the capital
from all over China, toting cameras, zooming around in
motorcades and flooding hotels and tourist sites.

Focus on Economics
--------------


3. (C) The focus of this year's legislative session,
and the simultaneous CPPCC sessions, will be
discussion and approval of the next Five-Year Program
for the economy for the years 2006-2010. In addition
to highlighting earlier leadership themes of
"scientific development" and "harmonious society,"
Premier Wen Jiabao will make his case for "altering
China's economic growth model" to focus on boosting
rural areas and improving the quality of growth.


4. (C) Much of the Five-Year Program discussion will
be focused on the latest leadership slogan, "Building
a New Socialist Countryside." This idea, which
stresses rural infrastructure and public goods, was
elaborated in the recently published Number 1 Document
(see septel). Experts note that there is broad
consensus over the need to give more of the national
pie to rural areas. "Everyone recognizes that this is
a moral imperative at this stage in China's
development," stated rural expert Wen Tiejun.


5. (C) Where disagreements are likely to arise,
however, is in discussions of specific funding
proposals and the share paid by various levels of
government to support Central Government initiatives.
Legal scholar and NPC expert Cai Dingjian said closed-
door discussions over paying for rural initiatives
would likely be "lively." He predicted that
differences would be papered over for public
consumption, however, and that disagreements over
policy implementation would continue in government
circles long after the NPC's close. Li Fan, an expert
on rural governance and fiscal policies, said he
expected few surprises from the NPC session. Although
there may be differing opinions on policy, discussions
within NPC delegations will remain polite with details
to be hashed out later.

Leadership Jockeying
--------------


6. (C) There are no important personnel changes on
the agenda, according to NPC staffer Cheng Zhiqiang,
who said that this year's sessions are viewed as being
"fairly routine." With a major Party Congress just
over a year away, however, local Party leaders will be

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looking to impress leaders in Beijing. Observers will
also be watching to see whether Vice Premier Huang Ju,
who has just undergone surgery for an unspecified
ailment, puts in an appearance at the sessions. A
well-connected contact at Caijing magazine earlier
told the Embassy that Huang had cancer but that his
prognosis was unknown. Whether Huang is able to
return to work or not, it seems certain that the
leadership will not move to replace him in the near
term.

Media Focus
--------------


7. (C) The main highlights for the more than 4,000
foreign journalists who have registered to cover the
event will be China's economic targets and policy
direction, comments on foreign and domestic policy
made by Foreign Minister Li and Premier Wen at their
press conferences, comments on the cross-Strait
situation, published budget increases in defense
spending (increases in excess of ten percent for the
past several years) and the new emphasis on rural
investment and addressing rural instability. Chinese
media will offer relentless coverage of the sessions,
steering away from potential controversy and focusing
on how deputies are serving the people and
representing their concerns. There has already been
substantial media coverage of the jump in petitioning
to NPC deputies and we expect there will be many more
stories about how deputies have worked to address
various issues.

Security Out in Force
--------------


8. (C) As in past years, security forces are taking
preventive measures to ensure that the NPC session
unfolds without any major incidents. Petitioners near
Beijing's South Train Station were rounded up and
other rights activists held in house arrest to prevent
them from making disturbances during the meetings. An
estimated 50-70 activists participating in a
nationwide rotating hunger strike led by activist
attorney Gao Zhisheng have been singled out for
particular attention prior to the NPC session. Some
activists, including Hu Jia, Qi Zhiyou and Zhao Xin,
have disappeared. However, some intellectuals who
refused to take part in Gao's hunger strike report
that they are at liberty ahead of the NPC meetings for
the first time in years. They include house Christian
Yu Jie and PEN Center co-chair Liu Xiaobo.


9. (SBU) At a Ministry of Public Security (MPS) news
conference March 2, Deputy Director General for Public
Security Management Xu Hu finessed a question from a
Hong Kong journalist about petitioner arrests. He
denied the roundups while adding that the police will
nonetheless "persuade" people who have been "idling in
Beijing for a long time without a proper job, fixed
residence or stable income" to go back to their home
provinces. In addition, Xu told journalists that the
Beijing Public Security Bureau is beefing up its
presence in the city during the NPC timeframe.
Official media reported that a special force of some
15,000 police will patrol the capital and be deployed
at "key security positions."
Sedney