MFA, SCHOLARS ON POSTPONED ASEAN-RELATED MEETINGS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIJING 024597

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/15/2016
TAGS: PREL ASEAN CH JA
SUBJECT: MFA, SCHOLARS ON POSTPONED ASEAN-RELATED MEETINGS

REF: A. MANILA 4984

B. BEIJING 24241

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Dan
Shields. Reasons 1.4 (b/d)

Summary
--------------


1. (C) China is amenable to rescheduling the postponed
ASEAN-related meetings in Cebu in mid-January, but if
the dates slip further it could be difficult for
Beijing, MFA officials and scholars told us in
separate meetings. Japan and China had planned to
announce at an Abe-Wen meeting in Cebu a "joint
history summit" for studying WWII issues that would
convene December 26-28. It is not clear what will
happen now with regard to that initiative. ASEAN-
Plus-Three remains China's preferred vehicle for
discussing Asian issues. Beijing remains open to a
stronger role for APEC and to United States
involvement in the East Asian Summit (EAS). MFA
officials said India poses no threat to Chinese
interests in Southeast Asia. Scholars said improving
ties between Beijing and Tokyo could thwart some ASEAN
members' attempts to play these donors off against
each other. Beijing's increased attention to
Southeast Asia in 2006 reflected the increasing role
Southeast Asian trade plays in China's bordering
provinces. End Summary.

Re-scheduling ASEAN-related Meetings still Uncertain
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2. (C) China has agreed to ASEAN's proposed mid-
January dates for rescheduling the EAS and other
ASEAN-related meetings postponed from December 13-14
in Cebu due to the typhoon in the Philippines, but
China might find it difficult to attend a later
summit, incoming MFA Deputy Director General for
Southeast Asian Affairs Tong Xiaoling told Polmincouns
December 14. Tong said Beijing has heard that the ROK
has scheduling conflicts with the January dates. From
Beijing's perspective, as key economic agreements
involving China were completed on December 8 before
the Summit was postponed (ref A),postponement into
March might result in pressure to skip the 2006
meetings altogether. Singapore has announced that the
2007 ASEAN Summit meetings will be held in November.

Possible Missed Opportunities
--------------


3. (C) Postponement should not affect the content of
the ASEAN-related meetings assuming they can be
rescheduled soon, Tong said, but if the meetings are
put off too long, it may diminish the current positive
momentum in China-Japan relations. China was to
coordinate the long-delayed Northeast Asian Trilateral
meeting and Premier Wen was to have met with PM Abe in
Cebu. A key element of the Wen-Abe meeting, Japanese
Political Counselor Kazuhiro Suzuki told us, was to be
an announcement a "joint history summit" for studying
WWII issues to convene December 26-28. Now, it is not
clear how that initiative will be rolled out.

China Prefers ASEAN-Plus-Three to EAS
--------------


4. (C) The now-delayed East Asian Summit (EAS) could
be worthwhile if it clarifies the benefits of this
ASEAN-Plus-Six regional group and defines its role
vis-a-vis other parts of the Asian regional
architecture, Han Feng, Deputy Director of the Chinese
Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) Asia-Pacific
Institute, told poloff. But China would not be too
concerned about postponement of the EAS because it as
yet does not see the forum as a serious place for
practical action or strategic coordination, according
to Zhai Kun, a Southeast Asia expert at China's
Institute for Contemporary International Relations
(CICIR) who attended the December 7 East Asia Congress
in Malaysia. ASEAN-Plus-Three is the most practical
forum for China because it combines the key Northeast
Asian countries with ASEAN and has already taken
practical steps on Asian economic integration, Zhai
said. MFA's Tong confirmed that ASEAN-Plus-Three is
China's preferred forum for East Asian integration.
DDG Tong said China is following ASEAN's lead and no
actor other than ASEAN can lead an Asian regional
group without provoking suspicion. Japan's promotion

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of the ASEAN-Plus-Six framework may have already begun
to generate some regional suspicion, CICIR's Zhai
said.

China Does Not Object To U.S. Participation in EAS
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5. (C) MFA's Tong emphasized that China is open to a
greater role for the United States and asked whether
the United States had applied to participate.
Polmincouns said the United States is concentrating on
strengthening the forums in which it already
participates such as APEC and ARF. In a separate
conversation, CICIR's Zhai Kun told Poloff the EAS
plays little practical role and could not be an
effective forum for strategic discussion without the
United States, so China welcomes the United States'
participation.

China's Attitude about APEC Gradually Improving
-------------- --


6. (C) Poloffs emphasized that the United States does
not want to detract from APEC, which we see as the
preeminent Asian economic forum, or from the ARF.
China's attitude toward these groups is becoming more
positive, CASS's Han said, marking an evolution from
previous attitudes that APEC and the ARF were designed
to contain China in Asia. With China's entry into the
WTO, its attitude toward APEC in particular has
improved tremendously, he said. Taiwan's
participation in APEC limits China's willingness to
have the forum used for non-economic issues, but APEC
has proven a useful model for bringing Taiwan into
discussion of regional economic issues. In Asia, only
APEC has the ability to become a regional force like
NATO or the European Union, Han said, not ASEAN-Plus-
Three or ASEAN-Plus-Six.

India Not a Threat, Japan a Donor Competitor
--------------


7. (C) India is not a threat to China's interests in
Southeast Asia, MFA's Tong said, noting specifically
that China "is not competing with anyone over Burma."
CICIR's Zhai agreed that India has little current
presence in Southeast Asia, although he noted the
potential for greater involvement. ASEAN officials
have expressed unhappiness with India's poor
preparations for participation in the EAS, CASS' Han
told us. In particular, ASEAN complains that Indian
officials have done little on FTA issues.


8. (C) Relative to India, Japan is more of a
competitor with China in Southeast Asia, but this
competition can be positive for ASEAN member states,
scholars Zhai and Han said. Japan provides ten times
as much development aid to Southeast Asia as China
does, Zhai said, and tends to focus on "high end" aid
like financial and legal training, while China
provides basic infrastructure and other assistance.
Trade tends to target different markets, they said,
citing as an example that in both Vietnam and
Indonesia, China and Japan have found that their
motorcycle exports are not in direct competition
because Japanese motorbikes are high-end while Chinese
motorbikes are less expensive and appeal to a
different client base. ASEAN member states frequently
try to balance the influence China and Japan have in
their societies, Han said, noting that improved Sino-
Japanese relations might make it more difficult for
Southeast Asian countries to play Japan and China off
against each other in competition for aid and
resources.

Focus on ASEAN Reflects Chinese Domestic Issues
-------------- --


9. (C) Even with postponement of the ASEAN-related
meetings, MFA's Tong noted that Southeast Asia had
received a great deal of attention from China's
leadership in 2006, citing the October ASEAN-China
Commemorative Summit in Nanning and President Hu's
November visit to Vietnam, Laos and APEC (Ref B).
CICIR's Zhai Kun said the Nanning Summit was
significant because it demonstrated the importance of
Southeast Asian trade in China's domestic politics.
Influential party secretaries from China's Southern
and Southwestern provinces have a strong interest in
maintaining their economic growth, which is closely
tied to Southeast Asia. Trade with ASEAN countries is

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important to economic development in Yunnan, Guangzhou
and Guangxi Provinces, Zhai said, while Fujian and
other coastal regions have recently struck favorable
deals with Southeast Asia to meet their rapidly
growing energy needs (Ref B). As a result, party
leaders in these provinces have pressed the Central
Government to focus on trade with Southeast Asia.

Randt