Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BEIJING24423
2006-12-08 12:46:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Beijing
Cable title:  

PRC/IRAN: THINK-TANKER DISCUSSES IRANIAN VIEWS ON

Tags:  PREL MNUC ETTC IR CH 
pdf how-to read a cable
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DE RUEHBJ #4423/01 3421246
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 081246Z DEC 06
FM AMEMBASSY BEIJING
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 2893
C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIJING 024423 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

INR FOR KNIGHT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2026
TAGS: PREL MNUC ETTC IR CH
SUBJECT: PRC/IRAN: THINK-TANKER DISCUSSES IRANIAN VIEWS ON
IMPACT OF NORTH KOREAN NUCLEAR TEST


Classified By: Political External Unit Chief Edgard Kagan. Reasons 1.4
(b/d).

Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIJING 024423

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

INR FOR KNIGHT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2026
TAGS: PREL MNUC ETTC IR CH
SUBJECT: PRC/IRAN: THINK-TANKER DISCUSSES IRANIAN VIEWS ON
IMPACT OF NORTH KOREAN NUCLEAR TEST


Classified By: Political External Unit Chief Edgard Kagan. Reasons 1.4
(b/d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Iranian diplomats told Chinese officials in October
that the North Korean test will "derail" UNSC actions against
Iran, according to Li Guofu, of the MFA-affiliated China
Institute of International Studies. Li said that Beijing is
redefining its national security interests and is changing
its approach to several issues. Li posits that in the near
term China will not reach a point at which it must consider
sacrificing its economic interests in Iran. Li argues that
while China's foreign policy has not changed under President
Hu Jintao, the attitude of foreign policy makers has. PRC
foreign policy makers view China as being able to act more
independently, with more freedom of choice in how to pursue
Beijing's national security interests. End Summary.

North Korean Nuclear Test Good For Iran
--------------


2. (C) During an October 16 meeting with visiting INR Analyst
Greg Knight and poloff, MFA-affiliated China Institute for
International Studies (CIIS) Division Director for South
Asia, Middle East and African Studies Li Guofu said that he
held consultations with Iranian diplomats in Beijing
immediately after the October 9 North Korean nuclear test.
Li stated that his Iranian diplomatic contacts were very
"happy" abou the current situation, believing it will derail
UNSC action on Iran,s own nuclear program. The Iranians
told Li that Tehran believes the North Korean nuclear test
has helped to strengthen its hand at the UNSC and has
diverted the international community's focus away from Iran.
Tehran will watch the UN's reaction to North Korea very
closely as it does not think UN pressure will be successful
in pushing Pyongyang to give up its nuclear program.

Iran Lower on China's National Security Priority List
-------------- --------------


3. (C) Beijing is currently "redefining" its national
security interests and is changing its approach to several
issues, according to Li. The Iranian nuclear issue is

considered a "small issue" because China does not feel
threatened by Tehran,s provocations. Li said North Korean
is "much more immediate" for Beijing because it has a direct
impact on China's security. In the case of Iran, Li argues
that China is experimenting with its foreign policy approach.
Beijing is not strong enough to project its interests and
influence in the Middle East, where other international
powers hold greater sway. However, the current situation is
allowing China to attempt to expand its role. Li claimed
that Beijing is benefiting from Middle Eastern frustrations
with U.S. policies in the region, particularly the Iraq War
and the Israeli "invasion" of Lebanon.


4. (C) China recognizes it is being used by Iran to
neutralize U.S. pressure, according to Li. China hews
closely to Russia's position, allowing Moscow to &take the
lead," according to Li. While following Russia's lead, China
has also paid "great attention" to cultivating good will with
EU countries regarding China's "constructive and cooperative
role" in helping to negotiate a diplomatic settlement. Li
stated that using this approach also helps Beijing to protect
its economic and energy interests in Iran. He added that in
the near term it is very unlikely that China would need to
sacrifice its economic interests in Iran in order to preserve
international nuclear nonproliferation regimes. At the same
time, Li pointed out that Beijing would honor P5 plus one
decisions on sanctioning Iran.

Hu Jintao: Jiang's Policies With New Operating Style?
-------------- --------------


5. (C) China's foreign policy has not changed under President
Hu Jintao, stated Li, noting that Hu's wording, phrasing and
policy choices are consistent with his predecessor Jiang
Zemin. However, Li claimed there has been a change in the
operating attitude of Beijing's foreign policy makers. PRC
foreign policy makers now view China as more independent than
before in handling different foreign policy issues. Li said
that they are more focused on China's national interests than
on worrying about "upsetting the United States." In foreign
policy circles there is a sense that China has lost many
opportunities because it considered first the U.S. reaction
to Beijing's foreign policy choices. Now China feels it has
more freedom to take the initiative in pursuing its policy
interests, according to Li.

CIIS Plays INR-like Role?
--------------


6. (C) In response to Knight's brief description of INR,s
role within the Department, Li stated that CIIS is closely
tied to the MFA and functions in much the same way. Li said
that he and his colleagues consult regularly with China's key
foreign policy makers.


7. (U) INR Analyst Knight cleared this cable.
Randt