CHINESE SCHOLAR DISCUSSES NORTH KOREA NUCLEAR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 024421

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

INR FOR GREG KNIGHT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2016
TAGS: PREL MNUC KNNP JA CH
SUBJECT: CHINESE SCHOLAR DISCUSSES NORTH KOREA NUCLEAR
ISSUE, SINO-JAPANESE TIES

Classified By: Political External Unit Chief Edgard Kagan. Reasons 1.4
(b/d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) China's good will towards North Korea has been
destroyed by the nuclear test and a fundamental change is
taking place in Sino-DPRK relations, according to Beijing
University Professor Zhu Feng. Noting that his view is in
the minority, Zhu said that he believes sanctions against the
North Korea will work and represent the only chance left for
ensuring the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Since
the nuclear test, the PRC leadership has adopted a more
"cooperative attitude" towards working with other countries,
especially the United States, to ensure that sanctions are
effective. The North Korean nuclear test also has presented
an opportunity for China and Japan to collaborate on a
strategy to deal with the North. According to the Chinese
academic, Japanese Prime Minister Abe,s trip was largely
symbolic and yielded no discernable progress toward resolving
long-standing bilateral differences. End Summary.

Zhu: "Sanctions Will Work"
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2. (C) During an October 17 meeting with visiting INR Analyst
Greg Knight and poloff, Beijing University International
Studies Professor Dr. Zhu Feng said Beijing's decision to
support UN sanctions against the DPRK was made at the highest
level of government, but it is too early to say what economic
leverage China will use against North Korea. China is giving
serious planning to its responses to Pyongyang's
provocations. PRC senior leaders view North Korea as a big
threat to China's national security and will not allow
Pyongyang to possess nuclear weapons. However, Zhu noted
that there is much debate and controversy in the leadership
over how to handle North Korea. Zhu stated that contact
between the two countries will be sustained and that dialogue
will persist because that is the best way to advance
Beijing's interests. But Zhu noted that China's good will
towards the North Korea has been destroyed by the nuclear
test and that fundamental change is taking place in the
PRC-DRPK relationship.


3. (C) Zhu believes the UNSC sanctions package against the
DPRK is "likely to work," though noting that his is a
minority view amongst PRC experts. Zhu claimed that he
"pushed his government8 to make a quick decision to adopt
the sanctions because it is &the only chance left" for a
nuclear free Korean peninsula. He noted that other academics
also have recently stepped forward to advise the leadership
of the need to send a &stronger message8 to Pyongyang.

4. (C) Calling the North Korean threat "very real and
imminent," Zhu said that as a result of the nuclear test,
China's leadership now is more resolved to deal with the
crisis. China's position since the test is to step up
multilateral cooperation. China's leaders now appear more
willing to partner with the United States in pressuring
Pyongyang to return to negotiations. China and the United
States are facing the same task and must work together to
enforce the sanctions, according to Zhu.

DPRK Nuclear Test Opens a Rare Window of Opportunity for
Sino-Japanese Cooperation?
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5. (C) The North Korea nuclear test also has created an
opportunity for China and Japan to collaborate on a strategy
that will comprehensively deal with the challenges posed by
the North, whether it goes nuclear or collapses. Zhu noted
that he returned from Japan on October 15 where he was
consulting with Japanese think tanks on a regional response
to the North Korean nuclear test. Zhu said that a regional
approach towards settling DPRK refugees must be adopted as
well as firm cooperation in nation-building if North Korea
collapses.


6. (C) Japan nonetheless prefers that the UNSC handle the
DPRK nuclear issue because Japan can play a more visible role
at the UN than it does in the Six-Party Talks, Zhu claimed.
He asserted that Japan remains uncomfortable with the key
role that China plays in the Six-Party Talks. This is the
reason why Japan &sabotages8 the talks by focusing on the
abduction of Japanese citizens to the DPRK, Zhu argued.

Abe Visit Symbolic
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7. (C) While the media portrayed Japanese Prime Minister

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Abe,s recent visit as a step towards stabilizing
Sino-Japanese relations, Zhu contends that the trip was
purely symbolic and that the two sides made no significant
advances. Abe said nothing new to Beijing officials, was
ambiguous on future Yasukuni Shrine visits and made no
promises to China on resolving long-standing differences,
according to Zhu.


8. (C) Zhu assessed that Abe's popularity is very high in
Japan and that most Japanese believe that relations with
China should improve. Now that Abe is in office, his trip to
Beijing must be viewed in the context of his need to build an
image as a capable leader. Zhu was skeptical of Japanese
press reports claiming that President Hu Jintao will visit
Japan as early as January.


9. (C) The Joint Statement issued by PM Abe and Hu Jintao
called for the creation of a joint committee to study history
based upon the Japan-South Korea model. The joint committee
will be composed of academics and politicians from each
country to study the issue of resolving historical issues.
Zhu said that he doubted this new committee would make any
progress in resolving the outstanding debate on the
interpretation of history, noting that the Japan-South Korea
committee has made no progress since it was founded five
years ago.
Randt