CHINA: GEN. XIONG GUANGKAI TELLS AMBASSADOR 2006

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BEIJING 024201

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2016
TAGS: PREL PINS MOPS CH TN KN IR JP
SUBJECT: CHINA: GEN. XIONG GUANGKAI TELLS AMBASSADOR 2006
HAS BEEN "BENCHMARK YEAR" IN UNITED STATES-CHINA RELATIONS

Classified By: Ambassador Clark T. Randt, Jr. Reasons
1.4 (a/b/d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) This has been a "benchmark year" for United
State-China relations, General Xiong Guangkai,
President of the China Institute for International
Strategic Studies (CIISS),told the Ambassador. The
relationship has developed in a comprehensive manner
including advances in military relations and the
establishment of the Strategic Economic Dialogue.
During a November 28 dinner, Xiong told the Ambassador
that he is worried that the United States is not
willing to take bigger steps towards improving the
military-to-military relationship, citing the 2000
Defense Authorization Act as an impediment to closer
cooperation and more substantive contacts. The North
Korea nuclear crisis has proved that China is "a
country of principles," Xiong declared, emphasizing
that the resumption of the Six-Party Talks is an
opportunity that should not be squandered. Xiong
claimed that in 1994 and in 2000 opportunities to
dissuade the North Koreans from pursuing a nuclear
program were lost. North Korea's nuclear weapons
program is based on plutonium and according to Xiong,
Pyongyang is years away from using enriched uranium in
its weapons program. Major General Gong Xianfu, Vice
Chairman of CIISS, expressed his opinion that Iran is
taking a tougher position on its nuclear program in
the wake of recent events that he believes have
demonstrated to Tehran that it has a larger regional
influence and role to play. End Summary.

Benchmark Year in United States-China Relations
-------------- ---


2. (C) While the United States and Chinese Governments
are not in complete agreement, both governments
emphasize the development of cooperative, constructive
relations between the two countries, General Xiong
Guangkai told the Ambassador during a November 28
dinner hosted by Xiong and his CIISS colleagues. In
the past, both countries adhered to the "three C's"
principle of building a candid, cooperative and
constructive relationship. This year a fourth "C" has
been added, the relationship is now also
comprehensive. Xiong said this has been a "benchmark"
year because even relations in the defense field have
advanced. The decision to start the Strategic
Economic Dialogue (SED) is also an indication that the
relationship is taking on strategic importance because
it establishes a broad working-level dialogue
mechanism, Xiong said. The Ambassador responded that
the upcoming inaugural meeting is unprecedented. Never
before have so many cabinet-level United States
officials traveled at the same time to China to hold
talks. Xiong confided that unlike other unidentified
academics, he does not believe United States-China
relations will be hurt by the outcome of the mid-term
elections since it is clear under the Constitution
that the President is responsible for foreign policy
decisions.

China Still Sees Obstacles in Military Relations
-------------- ---


3. (C) The numerous visits and the joint naval
exercise between the United States and Chinese
militaries are all signs of improving military
friendship, Xiong stated. The two countries should
maintain high-level contacts in all areas of defense
and these contacts need to be substantive. Xiong said
he is worried, however, by what he claims is the
reluctance of the United States to make "big strides"
toward engaging the Peoples' Liberation Army (PLA).
Pointing to the United States' 2000 Defense
Authorization Act, Xiong claimed that the United
States restricts contact between the two militaries in
12 areas, including logistics. The PLA intended to
send a delegation to the United States in 2006 to
develop more substantive contacts and to discuss the

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outsourcing of military support services, but due to
the Defense Authorization Act, the Chinese delegation
was not able to visit. Xiong derisively quipped that
"outsourcing of support services is no secret." The
Ambassador emphasized to Xiong that there is much the
two militaries can still do within the parameters
permitted by the Defense Authorization Act that has
yet to be done and added that the planned visit of the
PLA's Second Artillery Commander to the United States
in March will be an important visit.

New Opportunity to Resolve North Korea Nuclear Problem
-------------- --------------


4. (C) Cooperation in addressing the ongoing North
Korean nuclear problem "proves that China is a country
of principles," Xiong declared. The PRC is opposed to
the North Korea possessing nuclear weapons and stands
against the proliferation of nuclear weapons
worldwide. Xiong pointed out that UNSCR 1718 uses the
term "condemnation" to decry North Korea's nuclear
test, noting that it was difficult for Beijing to
agree to use such strong language in reference to its
neighbor. Xiong assesses the willingness of Pyongyang
and Washington to restart the Six-Party Talks despite
the nuclear test and financial sanctions as a positive
sign and a good opportunity to find a resolution to
the impasse. Xiong argued that if the September 2005
Joint Statement can be implemented and the United
States provides a security guarantee and economic
assistance then it will be possible for North Korea to
abandon its weapons. Xiong asserted that North Korea
does not want atom bombs but rather potatoes, arguing
that the biggest threat to North Korean national
security is economic hardship. Beijing is never
overly optimistic about a breakthrough with the North
Korea and realizes that results will only be won
through hard effort. Xiong said that Beijing is not
afraid of very slow progress but is worried about a
dangerous stand-still. The Ambassador reminded Xiong
that the United States is but one of the five non-
North Korean parties to the Talks and that these
parties have been engaging North Korea on its nuclear
program for a long time with very little to show for
it.

Lost Opportunities to Resolve North Korea Nuclear
Issue
-------------- ---


5. (C) Noting that he has visited Pyongyang three
times, Xiong claimed to have met both Kim Il-Sung and
Kim Jong-Il. His first visit took place in 1994, the
year Kim Il-Sung died. Xiong argued that with Kim's
death there was a "lost opportunity" for solving the
nuclear issue. Kim Il-Sung wanted to open to the
outside world and liberalize the economy but his death
had a negative impact on the implementation of the
1994 Framework Agreement. Xiong also cites then-
Secretary Albright's 2000 visit to Pyongyang as a

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missed opportunity. At the time of her visit, Xiong
accompanied then-Chinese Defense Minister Chi Haotian
to Pyongyang. Xiong asserted that Chi was accorded
the same level of protocol as Secretary Albright.
Xiong claimed that after Secretary Albright met with
Kim Jong-Il, he and Chi Haotian met with Kim. They
were even given the same "grand performance" in the
Workers Stadium that Secretary Albright received.
Without further details, Xiong claimed that this was
another missed opportunity to improve relations with
North Korea.

Kim Jong-Il Misunderstood
--------------


6. (C) In response to the Ambassador's question,
Xiong said that Kim Jong-il, like his father, wants to
open his country to the outside world to improve its
economy but at the same time will increase internal
controls. Kim Jong-Il will not give up his hold on
ideology and the military. The West and China
disagree with Kim on many issues but Kim is a "quick-
minded person," according to Xiong. The differences

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between Kim and other leaders is "a difference of
interests not a difference of thinking ability," Xiong
stated, adding that Kim will safeguard the interests
of his country. Xiong insisted that Kim is in firm
control of the NORTH KOREA military, having built his
influence over a long period of time.

North Korea's Plutonium is Plentiful
--------------


7. (C) In response to another query from the
Ambassador, Xiong stated that at the time of the
signing of the 1994 Framework Agreement, Beijing was
aware that the North Korea was working on a plutonium-
based weapons program. Twelve years ago, Pyongyang
had only a "very limited amount" of plutonium but now
has an unlimited amount, Xiong said, adding that he
believes North Korea's nuclear test was a plutonium
bomb. He claimed that the North Korea is "very far
away from making a uranium bomb."

Iran Toughening Its Position
--------------


8. (C) Major General Gong Xianfu, former Defense
Attache to the Chinese Embassy in Washington and Iran,
asserted that Tehran is adopting a harder position on
its nuclear program. Recent developments, including
the perceived United States difficulties in Iraq, the
ongoing Israel-Lebanon conflict, the North Korea
nuclear test and perceived differences between the
United States and its allies on how to approach the
Iran nuclear issue are reinforcing Iranian "hardliner"
views that Iran has a larger role to play in regional
affairs and more flexibility to oppose United Nations
Security Council sanctions.

BIO NOTE: Xiong Still Working Hard
--------------


9. (C) Xiong repeatedly pointed out to the Ambassador
that he is still a full General in the service of the
PLA. While no longer Deputy Chief of the General
Staff, Xiong is President of CIISS, and in this
capacity he claims to influence the strategic thinking
of academics and policy makers in both China and the
United States. Xiong said the current focus of the
CIISS is United States-China relations. Over the next
year, CIISS will conduct in depth research on how to
build and ensure that the two countries have stable
relations in the future. Based on frequent exchanges
with United States' China experts and former policy
makers, Xiong contends that his institute plays a
positive role in enhancing the strategic understanding
of both countries. Xiong told the Ambassador
repeatedly that he is still working full time and is
"always on the go." Xiong said that in 2006 he met at
least once a month with United States academics.


10. (C) The following biographic information on
Chinese participants at the dinner was provided by
CIISS:

Major General Gong Xianfu joined the PLA in 1960 and
served successfully as interpreter of the Ministry of
National Defense and the Defense Attache's Office of
the Chinese Embassy in France, staff officer of MND,
Deputy Defense Attache of the Chinese Embassy in Iran,
Deputy Chief of Staff of a division, Deputy Chief of
Division in MND, the Defense Attache of the Chinese
Embassy in Iran, student at the National Defense
University, Deputy Chief and Chief of Bureau of MND,
and Defense Attache of the Chinese Embassy in the
United States. He has been Vice Chairman of CIISS
since 2001.

Dr. Chen Wei joined the PLA in 1980 and served as
staff member of the Chinese Embassy in India from 1994
to 1996. He received his Ph.D. from the Department
of International Politics from Fudan University in

1999. He has served as a research fellow at CIISS
since 1999. Dr. Chen was named Executive Director and
Research Fellow to CIIS in 2005.

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Major General Miao Pengsheng was born in Jiangsu
Province in 1946. He joined the PLA in July 1969
after graduating from university and has since served
as staff officer, deputy section chief and section
chief of MND. In December 1987, he was transferred as
a researcher in the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State
Council of China and the Hong Kong branch of Xinhua
News Agency. In August 1998, he joined the PLA again
and served as division chief of MND. In March 2002,
he was posted as Defense Attache to the Chinese
Embassy in the United Kingdom. In December 2004, he
returned to Beijing and was appointed Secretary
General of CIISS. He is married to Jiang Shujun and
they have a daughter. His interests include reading
and traveling.
Randt