CHEN YUNLIN RAISES TAIWAN CONSTITUTION CONCERNS

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIJING 023736

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/13/2031
TAGS: PREL PGOV CH TW
SUBJECT: CHEN YUNLIN RAISES TAIWAN CONSTITUTION CONCERNS
WITH AMBASSADOR

Classified By: Ambassador Clark T. Randt, Jr. Reasons 1.4 (b/d).


Summary
--------------


1. (S) Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) Director Chen Yunlin told
the Ambassador that China remains concerned about Chen
Shui-bian's plans to pursue de jure independence for Taiwan
through constitutional reform, despite his current political
troubles. TAO's Chen asserted that Chen Shui-bian will take
advantage of U.S. "acceptance" of the termination of the
National Unification Council and Guidelines to try to win
U.S. approval for his notion of "freezing" the current
Republic of China (ROC) Constitution. TAO's Chen described
the purported contents of four different DPP draft
constitutions, stressed that constitutional reform is a
dangerous process and asked that China and the United States
continue to communicate on the issue. The Ambassador noted
that President Bush has been very clear that the United
States opposes unilateral changes to the cross-Strait status
quo by either side. Maintaining open channels of
communication on this issue is in the interest of all sides,
the Ambassador added.

Concerns About Constitution Moves
--------------


2. (S) TAO Director Chen Yunlin described China's concerns
about Chen Shui-bian's plans to pursue constitutional reform
in Taiwan during a November 9 meeting with the Ambassador.
TAO's Chen expressed appreciation for the good reception he
had during his September visit to Washington, but said he is
concerned that many U.S. officials appeared to believe that
Chen Shui-bian would be unable to pursue constitutional
reform because of his current political troubles. U.S.
officials mentioned that Chen Shui-bian had given assurances
that he would not press constitutional reform and said they
doubted that, in his weakened political state, Chen Shui-bian
could get any proposals through the Legislative Yuan (LY).
Shortly after the trip, however, Chen Shui-bian announced
publicly that he intended to push constitutional reform and,
as part of this process, to initiate discussion of the issues
of national territory and title. In response, the United
States made its position clear and the Mainland issued a
serious warning to Chen Shui-bian. As a result, Chen
Shui-bian's attempt to provoke a conflict across the Strait
failed, TAO's Chen stated.


3. (S) The Mainland understands that Chen Shui-bian and the
DPP have at least four drafts for a Constitution, TAO's Chen
continued. TAO's Chen passed a document that contains brief
descriptions of each of the four drafts (texts at para 10),
but said that he wanted to discuss the fourth one, the
so-called "Second Republic" draft. Chen Shui-bian organized
a group of scholars who support independence to sponsor a
"Second Republic" constitution, modeled on the French Second
Republic Constitution. This draft, according to TAO's Chen,
denies that Taiwan is an indivisible part of China, denies
that there is only one China in the world, denies the
historical fact that Taiwan has never existed as a separate
country and misquotes the UN Charter. This is an effort to
trick the international community into supporting the draft,
TAO's Chen insisted. Chen Shui-bian believes that the
Mainland might even accept this kind of Constitution, he
said.

Beware of a Freeze
--------------


4. (S) TAO's Chen said he wants to emphasize that DPP
insiders and Chen Shui-bian view the "U.S. acceptance" of the
"termination" of the National Unification Council and
National Unification Guidelines (NUC, NUG) earlier this year
as a sign that the United States will accept a "Second
Republic" constitution that would involve "freezing" the ROC
Constitution. If the word "freeze" is used, the United
States can be convinced that the old constitution technically
still exists, while Chen Shui-bian will tell others that the
old constitution no longer exists. TAO's Chen said that Chen
Shui-bian boasted about abolishing the NUC and the NUG in his
recent interview with the Financial Times. "Just like that,
the fifth no of Chen Shui-bian's original five noes
commitment was gone," TAO's Chen commented.


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5. (S) Some U.S. opinion leaders have intimated that because
Chen Shui-bian is now in the middle of a corruption scandal,
he will back off from constitutional reform and focus on
protecting himself, TAO's Chen said. China believes that
because Chen Shui-bian needs to protect himself he must
pursue constitutional reform. Facts have proven that Chen
Shui-bian has no credibility, TAO's Chen continued,
characterizing Chen Shui-bian as someone who cares nothing
about the interests of others, including the United States,
and calling him "a political hooligan."


6. (S) Originally, Chen Shui-bian planned to push
Constitutional reform at the end of 2006, but now he wants to
use the opportunity of the U.S. election season to create a
crisis. This will undermine peace and stability across the
Taiwan Strait and in East Asia and will undermine the
increasing cooperation between the United States and China on
a range of issues. The Chinese Government is already making
preparations for the worst case, but China and the United
States can not allow a crisis to occur.

China Seeks Stability
--------------


7. (S) TAO's Chen stated that China wants to assure the
United States that it will adhere to its consistent
guidelines and principles in dealing with Taiwan. China
supports stability, peace and development across the Strait
and has taken many measures this year to promote cross-Strait
exchanges and ties. China does not care whether Chen
Shui-bian remains in power or who comes to power, TAO's Chen
asserted, claiming that this is for people in Taiwan to
decide. China's policy will not change, but if any leader in
Taiwan pursues de jure independence, "China will struggle
against this until the end," he stated.


8. (S) China and the United States should maintain close
communication on Taiwan developments from now until 2008,
Chen urged, as "many things will be going on" during that
time. He hopes that the United States will pay close
attention to Taiwan and not send any wrong signals or cause
Taiwan authorities to misunderstand the U.S. position.
According to Tao's Chen, the Taiwan authorities believe that
since the United States accepted the possibility of
constitutional changes as long as they do not touch on
sovereignty or territorial issues, the Taiwan authorities
believe there is a green light to proceed. They will say
they are not touching on these issues, but in the end the
constitution will be fundamentally altered, he continued.
The United States and China need to prevent opportunities for
that "troublemaker" Chen Shui-bian to provoke a new crisis.
This kind of behavior will be dangerous, TAO's Chen
concluded.


9. (S) The Ambassador noted that President Bush has been
very clear in stating his opposition to unilateral changes to
the cross-Strait status quo by either side. Maintaining open
channels of communication on this issue is in the interest of
all sides, the Ambassador stated.

Four Draft Constitutions
--------------


10. (S) Following is an informal translation of a TAO
document describing different constitutional variants.

Begin text.

The first draft openly declares the establishment of the
Republic of Taiwan, defines the territory of Taiwan plus
Penghu, Kinmen, Matsu and their other islands as the area of
national authority, and is essentially a constitution for
Taiwan independence.

The second draft declares that Taiwan is a democratic
republic named the Republic of China, incorporates the "two
state theory," declares that any political relationship
between the PRC and ROC must be approved by a referendum of
the Taiwan people and is equivalent to a "ROC equals Taiwan"
and a "two state theory" constitution.

The third draft abolishes the concept of "one country, two
regions" and the goal of national unification. It amends the
current constitution, would eliminate all current references
to the Mainland, indirectly limits the domain of the

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traditional territory of China and lowers the threshold for
holding a national referendum. This draft, while called an
amendment to the constitution, is essentially the
establishment of a new constitution that eliminates all
connections to the Mainland.

The fourth draft is the so-called "Second Republic"
constitution. The draft rejects the notion that Taiwan has
been a part of China since ancient times and that it was
returned to China in 1945. It promotes the separatist "two
state theory" and "one country on each side of the Strait,"
misquotes the UN Charter and attempts to change the
cross-Strait status quo.

End text.

Randt