CHINA'S LOCAL CONGRESS ELECTIONS: REFORMERS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIJING 022633

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/25/2031
TAGS: PGOV CH
SUBJECT: CHINA'S LOCAL CONGRESS ELECTIONS: REFORMERS
LOOKING FOR SMALL PROGRESS, SEEK SUPPORT

REF: BEIJING 17493

Classified By: Political Internal Unit Chief Susan Thornton.
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) The elections for local people's congresses currently
being held across China are being closely watched by
reformers who hope that real independent candidates might run
some successful campaigns and become members of what have
traditionally been seen as rubber-stamp bodies. The
congresses hold potential for bringing change because of the
formal power they have to make policy and appoint government
leaders, elections activist Li Fan (strictly protect)
recently told poloff. The Chinese Government, however, views
independent candidates as a threat to stability and the
Party's primacy and therefore "rigs" the races. Li suggested
that outside pressure might help to improve the quality of
the elections, which are scheduled to run through the end of

2007. The upcoming November 8 election in Beijing is one of
the more important races, Li said, because independent
candidates have been elected in Beijing previously and the
races here will be more closely scrutinized. Comment: The
election of even dozens of independent candidates would do
little to expand the real power of local congresses absent
systemic change. Nevertheless, increased pressure, interest
and publicity surrounding these elections will raise
consciousness in some quarters about rights, participation
and accountability of government. End Summary and Comment.

Importance of Local People's Congress Elections
-------------- --


2. (C) Elections activist Li Fan (strictly protect),a U.S.
Embassy small grants recipient and Director of The World and
China Institute, recently explained to poloff the importance
of China's ongoing nationwide elections for local people's
congresses (China's local legislatures). These elections, he
argued, give Chinese citizens influence, albeit indirect,
over the composition of the Government. Representatives
directly elected by the public to local people's congresses
have the power to choose delegates for congresses at the
higher levels, namely the Prefectural/City, Provincial and
National People's Congresses. The formal powers of these
congresses are significant, as they have the authority not
only to pass legislation but also to select government
leaders at each corresponding level (local, prefectural, and
national). Li admitted that, in reality, the power of
people's congresses is seriously circumscribed and that it is
the Communist Party that selects leaders and sets policy at
every level. Nevertheless, the election of "real"
independent candidates could, in the long run, lead to real
political reform, Li asserted.

Scope, Timing
--------------


3. (C) Li explained the scope and timing of these elections,
which are being held for local people's congresses at the
county and township levels in rural areas, and at the
municipal district level in urban areas. (Note: separate
materials provided by an American NGO indicate that elections
will be held in 35,400 towns and 2,500 counties in both urban
and rural areas across China. End note.) The elections
began in July 2006 and are being held on a running basis
through the end of 2007. Elections have already been held in
Wuhan (September 26) and Shenzhen (September 28). Upcoming
significant races include Beijing (November 8),Shanghai
(December 12),and Zhejiang (end of December).

Elections Backgroud: Rise of Independents in 2003
-------------- --------------


4. (C) China began to hold elections for local people's
congresses in the 1980s, but they became important only after
2003, Li said, when "ordinary" people, including lawyers,
professors and others, began to run seriously as independent
candidates. (Note: the elections for local people's
congresses are completely separate from elections for village
committees and heads, which also began in the 1980s. End
note.) In the most recent local people's congress elections
in 2003, approximately 50 independent candidates ran for
office, with about 20 winning, all in Beijing. Most were
elected to the 300-member people's congress for the Haidian
District, which contains two to three million people and is
home to many of Beijing's major universities. Among these 20
victorious independents, two were selected to be
representatives to the next higher-level people's congress
representing Beijing City, which has approximately 400

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members.


5. (C) In the upcoming November 8 elections in Beijing,
perhaps as many as 80 independent candidates will run, though
precise numbers won't be known until right before the
election, Li said. Independents are likely to again be
concentrated in the Haidian university district, where they
have a better chance of winning. Li did not have figures for
how many residents would be eligible to vote in Beijing, but
he provided an example from the recent election in Shenzhen
to illustrate government efforts to keep the number of voters
down. In Shenzhen, one district had 60,000 residents who
were eligible to vote, but only 600 were "registered," and in
the end, only about 200 actually voted, Li claimed.

Rigging Elections, Harassing Independents
--------------


6. (C) The government recognizes the threat that independent
candidates could pose to the Communist Party's monopoly on
power and therefore has begun "harassing" them and "rigging"
the elections, Li stated. The government fears that people's
"democratic consciousness" is rising and that greater numbers
of people are attempting to use Chinese law and the
Constitution to assert their rights. To justify its tactics,
the Government claims independents' true intentions are to
foment social instability and challenge the Party's primacy,
or that "foreign enemy forces" are involved. The Central
Government has likely issued orders to stop independent
candidates at all costs, Li surmised. (Note: See reftel for
comments of another activist, Yao Lifa, on specific examples
of harassment of those supporting independent candidates in
these elections. End note.)


7. (C) Describing the current climate for independent
candidates as "very bad," Li claimed that the elections in
Wuhan and Shenzhen last month were "completely rigged" and
that local officials went so far as to arrest independent
candidates. By contrast, in 2003, the situation was better,
at least in Beijing. At that time, independent candidates
were strongly pressured not to run, but the races in Beijing
at least weren't completely fixed. Nevertheless, in more
remote areas, Li asserted, local officials then, as now, "can
do whatever they want."

Role of Outside Pressure
--------------


8. (C) Li judged that selective outside pressure could help
in the conduct of fairer elections. The Chinese government
has already "promised" the international community that it
would "expand" democracy, Li stated, so going back on that
pledge would cause the government to "lose face." The
Beijing races are important, he asserted, because if the
precedent of holding fair elections can be established in
Beijing, the chances of them being held elsewhere across
China will increase significantly. Nevertheless, foreign
observation of local people's congress elections would be
something new, and therefore could be difficult, Li stated.
Foreign organizations have observed village elections in the
past and Li claimed that one American NGO had once been able
to observe a local people's congress election, but that was
not a "real" race, he said.

"Demanding More Democracy in China"
--------------


9. (C) "Many people are now demanding more democracy in
China," Li declared. Citing Taiwan as an example, Li said
that 40 years ago, activists there used elections to take the
first steps at establishing an organized opposition. In the
end, that opposition toppled the ruling KMT. Today, in
Taiwan, it is possible to challenge the President and even
attempt to recall him. In the PRC, Li noted, it is not even
possible to recall a bureaucrat, let alone the President.
Nevertheless, Li passionately argued, the possibility of
reform in China still exists, again stating that, over time,
"real" independent candidates could bring about reform in
China. Li noted that once elected, independent people's
congress delegates would be "protected," because deputies
enjoy "certain immunities."


10. (C) Examples of progress at the local level are a reason
for hope, Li said, citing the case of Wenling City in
Zhejiang Province. In Wenling, a township leader there has
agreed to run a "real, free election," with "only 15 percent"
of the seats guaranteed for Party/Government candidates. Li
said he and his activist allies had first worked with this
local leader on budget reform, later encouraging him to
expand his reformist efforts to other areas. Now, this
leader has agreed to hold relatively free elections. "This

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is how reform must be done in China," Li declared, "from the
top down." Another positive example, Li said, is Honghe City
in Yunnan, where local government leaders are "very open."
For example, the local people's congress leader there
defended construction of a large public square in the city by
saying that residents require a place to demonstrate in order
to eventually make China a democracy. Despite the positive
example set by Wenling, Li warned that the situation is
"extremely sensitive," and that any publicity or outside
involvement in events there would be "most unhelpful." While
Li hopes for outside pressure to assure improved local
people's congress elections in some large cities, he
cautioned that his comments about Wenling should be kept
strictly confidential.

Comment
--------------


11. (C) While activists are focused on the possibility of
using legally sanctioned popular local congress elections to
push forward democratic reform, the election of even dozens
of independent candidates would do little to expand the real
power of local congresses absent systemic change.
Nevertheless, increased pressure, interest and publicity
surrounding these elections will raise consciousness in some
quarters about rights, participation and accountability of
government.
Randt