Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BEIJING22131
2006-10-18 11:34:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Beijing
Cable title:  

HU'S IN CHARGE AND HARMONY IS THE WATCHWORD

Tags:  PGOV CH 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO2769
OO RUEHCN RUEHGH RUEHVC
DE RUEHBJ #2131/01 2911134
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 181134Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY BEIJING
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0155
INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIJING 022131 

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/18/2031
TAGS: PGOV CH
SUBJECT: HU'S IN CHARGE AND HARMONY IS THE WATCHWORD

REF: A. BEIJING 21533

B. BEIJING 20986

C. FBIS CPP20050219000025

Classified By: Political Internal Unit Chief Susan Thornton.
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIJING 022131

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/18/2031
TAGS: PGOV CH
SUBJECT: HU'S IN CHARGE AND HARMONY IS THE WATCHWORD

REF: A. BEIJING 21533

B. BEIJING 20986

C. FBIS CPP20050219000025

Classified By: Political Internal Unit Chief Susan Thornton.
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) China's recent Party Plenum Decision, which elevated
President Hu Jintao's concept of building a "harmonious
society," indicates that Hu is firmly in charge and set to
pursue policy changes aimed at restoring some balance to
China's growing gaps. The harmonious society slogan is also
an effective PR tool that resonates with the general public.
Hu's promotion of this catchphrase reflects a genuine worry
among the leadership about social stability and continued
Communist Party rule. Nevertheless, significant political
reform is not in the cards, predicted one Embassy contact.
The Plenum communique's silence on deposed Shanghai Party
Secretary Chen Liangyu reflects a need to let the

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investigation run its course, several contacts stated. One
contact said that Chen's demise was more the doing of former
President Jiang Zemin than Hu Jintao and that Jiang and Hu
cooperate closely on many issues. Regarding broader
personnel decisions for next year's 17th Party Congress,
"nothing" has been decided, contacts reported. End Summary.

Hu Jintao's Growing Power
--------------


2. (C) The just-completed Sixth Party Plenum (Ref A)
constituted a major step forward in the consolidation of Hu
Jintao's power, Beijing contacts asserted this past week.
Central Party School Scholar Qin Zhilai (protect) said on
October 13 that the Plenum's focus on the "harmonious
society" concept, including raising the concept to the level
of the Party's overall guiding philosophy, indicates that
Hu's formal stature within the Party has increased.
Separately, former People's Daily editorial writer, Ma
Licheng (protect),agreed that the adoption of a Central
Committee "Decision" devoted solely to Hu's doctrine suggests
a significant jump in his stature within the Party. Li Qiang
(protect),Dean of the School of Humanities at Qinghua
University, speculated that this is President Hu's effort at
securing his legacy and the goal is for harmonious society to
eventually enter the CCP's ideological canon.


Harmonious Society: Concrete Policies Coming
--------------


3. (C) The elevation of the harmonious society idea not only
reflects Hu Jintao's increased authority, but will also have
concrete policy implications, Qin said. A great deal of
"specifics" surrounding harmonious society were discussed at
the Plenum, and though not yet public, tangible policies to
implement this concept are on the way. The Plenum's focus on
harmonious society is the result of more than two years of
work that began in 2004 when this slogan was first
introduced, he explained. In February 2005, the Central
Party School convened a conference at which all prefectural
party secretaries "studied" the concept in detail (Ref C) and
now it has, for the first time, been approved in a Plenum
Decision. At next year's National People's Congress (NPC),
greater detail regarding the policies needed to implement the
harmonious society concept will be made clear.


4. (C) In a separate conversation, Pei Bin (protect),The
Asia Society's Senior Program Officer in Beijing, argued that
outside observers should not be overly hasty in dismissing
harmonious society as mere propaganda. The concept reflects
genuine concern at the top with China's social problems, she
stated, and it is increasingly having an impact on policy
decisions, especially regarding the "new socialist
countryside." Dean Li of Qinghua University, however, said
he was doubtful that the goal of creating an equitable
society, as announced in the Plenum communique, could be
reached by 2020. "It will take 40 to 60 years," he said.
But addressing social inequality now is a way to garner
support among China's less fortunate.

Harmonious Society: Effective "PR" Tool
--------------


5. (C) The harmonious society concept clearly resonates with
the common man and makes for good "public relations,"
regardless of what its policy implication might be, several
Embassy contacts stated. In contrast to Jiang Zemin's "Three
Represents," which never got any traction among the public,
Ma Licheng said ordinary people see the slogan as a
reflection of China's intensifying social conflicts and a

BEIJING 00022131 002 OF 003


sign that the leadership wants to do something to fix this.
Jiang Bo (protect),self-styled Beijing intellectual and
Chinese language instructor, agreed, telling poloff that
ordinary people actually use the phrase in daily
conversations to indicate dissatisfaction with government
policies. Li Qiang noted that Hu is being craftier on this
score than Jiang Zemin. Jiang introduced the "Three
Represents" too late in his tenure, and average Chinese
citizens had no idea what it meant. On the other hand, "Who
can oppose a 'harmonious society?'" Li asked rhetorically.
Other contacts, such as Ma Licheng, argued that the
harmonious society concept also has the "flavor" of
traditional Chinese moral philosophy, making it more
palatale to the public.

"Genuine" Concern of Top Leadership with Stability
-------------- --------------


6. (C) The Plenum's emphasis on harmonious society reflects a
genuine worry among the Party leadership about social
stability, according to Embassy contacts. Feng Shuquan
(protect),a professor at the Central Party School who
focuses on social conditions in rural areas, said the
urban-rural, rich-poor gap is a reality -- and it is growing.
The proliferation of incidents of unrest, stemming from
feelings of inequality and disenfranchisement among
have-nots, particularly the rural poor, makes the leadership
especially nervous. According to An Hongquan (protect) of
the State Council Development Research Center, Chinese
leaders are obsessed with internal stability and spend the
vast majority of their time working on this issue, with less
time for foreign policy problems. Qin Zhilai echoed this
view, arguing that the central leadership believes that
legitimate problems in areas such as education, health care,
housing, and employment are exacerbated by corruption and
combine to present a genuine threat to social stability and
continued Communist Party rule. Feng observed that the
leadership has "done the math" and believes the key to
stability is convincing the huge swath of rural residents
that the Government is addressing their problems. Against
this backdrop, the Plenum communique's language on harmonious
society amounts to a bit of public relations aimed at
drumming up support for Beijing's policies and President Hu's
and Premier Wen's leadership. Nonetheless, Feng also
dismissed as unrealistic the Plenum communique's pledge to
eliminate the urban-rural gap by 2020.

Harmony Does Not Require Political Reform
--------------


7. (C) Observers shouldn't get their hopes up that harmonious
society will contain significant political reform, Ma Licheng
told poloff. Don't be fooled by the media attention to
political reform proposals before the Plenum, he warned. The
leadership talks a good game but has "absolutely no
intention" of enacting "real" political reform before the
17th Party Congress. Chinese leaders are extremely concerned
about social-political stability and the Party's staying
power, and any truly meaningful political reform, such as
giving people greater power or opening up the information
flow, is viewed as a threat. Hu is under pressure from
various quarters both for and against reform, but in the end
he will heed the consensus of the collective leadership.
Right now that consensus, Ma stated, is to keep the lid on
political change.

What Happened to Chen Liangyu?
--------------


8. (C) Despite the Plenum communique's silence on personnel
matters, including the status of deposed Shanghai Party
Secretary Chen Liangyu (Refs A and B),there is "no doubt"

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that such issues were discussed, even as those deliberations
remain secret, both Qin Zhilai and Li Qiang told poloffs in
separate conversations. The Plenum final communique made no
mention of Chen's status only because the investigation has
yet to run its course, according to An Hongquan. Ma Licheng
agreed, noting that there was only a short time span between
the announcement of Chen's removal and the opening of the
Plenum. Chen will eventually be booted from the Politburo
prior to next year's 17th Party Congress, both An and Ma
agreed. In contrast, Li Qiang speculated that the Plenum's
radio silence on Chen Liangyu may indicate that an
unspecified deal was cut to leave Chen in his Politburo
position for now.

Jiang Zemin Role in Chen's Downfall?
--------------


9. (C) According to An Hongquan, former President Jiang Zemin
played a major role in Chen's takedown, cooperating closely
with President Hu Jintao. Jiang and Chen used to be close,

BEIJING 00022131 003 OF 003


but lately Chen had "gotten out of control," to the extent
that he angered even Jiang. (According to An, Chen had
embezzled more than 400 million RMB.) Jiang Zemin and Hu
Jintao have a "pretty close" working relationship, An said,
and while Hu is clearly in charge of the day-to-day running
of the Party, Jiang still has influence. Zeng Qinghong is
working closely with Hu now, but the fact that Hu and Jiang
work well together enables the positive working relationship
between Hu and Zeng. Acting Shanghai Party Secretary Han
Zheng is merely a caretaker, An stated, and will not be named
as the "permanent" replacement for Chen. In a separate
conversation, Ma Licheng agreed that Han Zheng will not be
the permanent Shanghai Party Secretary, adding that he will
not make the Politburo, as there are at least four or five
names ahead of him on the Politburo "list." Shanghai is
"reeling," An said, stating that "no officials dare to go
there." Officials there now have been told not to leave the
city and several officials are sitting in for others, but no
one knows who is up and who is down.

Personnel Rumors
--------------


10. (C) Commenting broadly on possible personnel changes at
next year's 17th Party Congress, Ma Licheng said "nothing"
has been decided so far. For example, he said it is unclear
whether Zeng Qinghong will stay on the Politburo Standing
Committee. An Hongquan agreed that personnel matters are
undecided, commenting that only Hu Jintao's position is
"certain." An commented that some businesspeople are
dissatisfied with Wen Jiabao's stewardship of the Chinese
economy and have suggested that the Premier should be
changed. Everyone likes Premier Wen, An stated, but some
believe he is "not up to the job." While rumors are
circulating in Beijing about leaders who are angling for the
Premier's job, most contacts who discussed this issue
maintained that Wen will remain Premier after 2007.

Why Plenums Matter
--------------


11. (C) Ordinary people pay no attention to Plenums, Ma
Licheng told poloff, but that doesn't mean they are
unimportant. Plenums are significant for the reason they
always have been: ratifying leadership decisions. Moreover,
he cautioned against reading too much into the fact that
Party leaders held outside meetings during the Plenum, such
as Hu Jintao's meeting with Prime Minister Abe on the
Plenum's opening day. Such outside meetings are not
particularly unusual and in any case all Plenum sessions are
pre-arranged and there is always time in the schedule to do
other things. Most importantly, he said, the Plenum
communique is determined at least three weeks in advance, so
delegates "put on their suits and go through the motions" of
rubber-stamping the pre-determined outcome. As long as the
Plenum results in that pre-planned conclusion, which it
always does, the meeting is considered a success.
Randt