CHINESE SCHOLARS, MEDIA APPLAUD PM ABE'S VISIT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 021226

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/09/2031
TAGS: PGOV PREL SOCI CH JN
SUBJECT: CHINESE SCHOLARS, MEDIA APPLAUD PM ABE'S VISIT


Classified By: Classified by Political Minister Counselor Daniel
Shields. Reasons 1.4 (b/d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Japanese Prime Minister Abe's October 8 visit
to Beijing drew praise from our contacts in Chinese
media and academia. China's print and broadcast
outlets provided upbeat blanket coverage of the visit,
complete with page one headlines and color photos.
While in general our contacts were favorable in their
assessments of PM Abe's appearance in Beijing, they
cautioned that a lack of movement on key bilateral
issues such as Yasukuni Shrine could hinder positive
developments in the future. The Chinese public's low
opinion of Japan will likely remain unchanged in the
near term. However, Post is unaware of any attempts
to organize anti-Japan protests during PM Abe's visit
(which occurred at the end of the Chinese National Day
holiday week.) The tone in online forums was
considerably more moderate than the usual bashing that
occurs when Japan is in Chinese headlines. End
Summary.

Major Media Coverage
--------------


2. (C) Prime Minster Abe's visit dominated the news
cycle October 8 and 9. The China Central Television
national evening news on October 8 presented a
lengthy, straightforward report at the top of its 7:00
p.m. broadcast. The next day almost every major daily
newspaper ran comprehensive coverage under banner page
one headlines accompanied by color pictures. The
progressive commercial tabloid The Beijing News
printed a photograph on its front page of PM Abe and
President Hu Jintao meeting at the Great Hall of the
People. The Global Times, a popular paper under the
editorial umbrella of the People's Daily that focuses
on international affairs, ran a special segment that
took up its entire second page. In addition, PM Abe's
visit was the top story on China's primary Internet
news portals on the morning of October 9, although it
became a secondary link after the official Xinhua News
Agency started carrying reports of a nuclear test by
North Korea.

Strict Propaganda Guidelines
--------------


3. (C) The Propaganda Department issued strict
guidelines at the end of last week ordering all media
outlets to publish only state-run Xinhua News Service
wire copy, several contacts told us. The Xinhua
reports, which ran on popular news portals, emphasized
that President Hu Jintao along with National People's
Congress Chairman Wu Bangguo and Prime Minister Wen
Jiabao all met with PM Abe. The Beijing News ran a
special sidebar with excerpts of the seven-point joint
press communique, which contained calls for enhancing
exchanges and strengthening political, economic,
social and security ties. The communique also
expressed bilateral concern about developments on the
Korean Peninsula, including the possibility of a
nuclear test.

"A Harmonious World"
--------------


4. (C) Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Scholar Gu
Guoliang said he and other scholars had been told by
government officials on October 2 that there would be
an announcement on October 4 that PM Abe would visit
China on October 8. The government had urged the
scholars to help persuade the Chinese public that it
is in China's interest to have better relations with
Japan. China is a major power and it needs good
relations with the other major powers, starting with
the United States and including Japan. This is part
of President Hu's "harmonious world" concept, Gu
stated.


5. (C) Gu said he understands PM Abe will continue to
decline to clarify publicly whether he will visit the
Yasukuni Shrine, but Gu believes there must have been
some sort of private commitment by PM Abe not to make
a shrine visit, at least in the near future, because
if PM Abe visits Yasukuni soon this would be a very
negative development for President Hu. Gu expressed
the view that Japanese domestic political
considerations make any visit to Yasukuni by PM Abe in

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the near future unlikely. Once PM Abe won his LDP
party leadership position, he could afford to worry
less about those nationalistic voters within the LDP
who favor the shrine visits and to worry more, with an
eye to next summer's Upper House elections, about
wooing away from other parties those centrist voters
who oppose shrine visits, Gu stated.


6. (C) PM Abe's visit is a "pleasant surprise" for
China and constitutes "a new open door for better
relations," said Wang Feng, an international news
editor at the influential bi-weekly Caijing Magazine.
The trip was seen as a success for the Chinese
government, Wang assessed, adding that the Chinese
side lost no face but made "many concessions." In
Wang's view, Chinese officials were too acquiescent in
particular on not pushing for a clear commitment from
the Japanese leader to discontinue visits to Yasukuni.
Nonetheless, the optics were positive and observers in
media and academia are upbeat about the possibility of
a thaw in the relationship, especially because PM Abe
chose to come to Beijing before Washington, Wang said.
Abe's visit to Beijing is "clearly a feather in the
cap of the Chinese leadership," commented journalist
Chen Jieren. The prominent treatment of the visit in
the media indicates that the leadership wants the
public to be aware of, and welcome, the visit.

No Warming of Public Sentiment toward Japan
--------------


7. (C) Despite the positive atmosphere of the last
few days, there is unlikely to be an appreciable
warming in public sentiment toward Japan, said Victor
Yuan (protect),president of the Horizon public
opinion polling company in Beijing. Yuan conducts
regular surveys of how various segments of society
view Japan. Feelings about Japan are entrenched among
most Chinese, Yuan observed. He reasoned that only if
the visit had produced "major positive results," such
as a new tack on the history issue or a promise from
PM Abe not to visit Yasukuni, would there be a real
swing in poll numbers. In measuring Chinese public
opinion, Yuan has found that Japan is unique among
nations in that average Chinese are firmly negative
about Japan's people as well as its government. By
contrast, Yuan related that while most Chinese tend to
be critical of the U.S. Government and its policies,
the American people overall are held in high esteem.

No Protests
--------------


8. (C) Anti-Japan protest activity was not apparent
in Beijing or elsewhere in connection with the visit.
Chinese authorities visibly beefed up security at the
Japanese Embassy and the Japanese Ambassador's
Residence on October 8. Several police vans were
parked in front of and adjacent to the Japanese
Embassy and plainclothes police stood on all nearby
street corners throughout the day. A similar setup
was in place at the Japanese Ambassador's Residence.


9. (C) Chat rooms were chock full of thousands of
postings throughout the weekend, although the tone was
considerably more moderate than during other recent
periods when China-Japan relations topped the
headlines. While many chatters cautioned that China
should "never forget history," netizens on the Strong
Nation online forum, often a hotbed of nationalist
rhetoric, tended to view PM Abe's trip pragmatically.
"We do not have to be friends, but we are neighbors
and distant relatives, so we need to work together,"
one typical entry read. Another Xinhuanet forum
contributor gave the visit a more cynical cast,
commenting that "China certainly is a big marketplace
(for Japan),ha ha!"
SEDNEY