PRC-JAPAN STRATEGIC DIALOGUE: VFM DAI RETURNS FROM

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIJING 020679

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/26/2031
TAGS: PREL PGOV JA CH
SUBJECT: PRC-JAPAN STRATEGIC DIALOGUE: VFM DAI RETURNS FROM
TOKYO WITH NO SILVER BULLET TO RESOLVE HISTORY DISPUTE

REF: A. BEIJING 20509

B. TOKYO 5608

Classified By: Acting Political External Unit Chief Eric Richardson.
Reasons 1.4 (b/d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: China's "Strategic Dialogue" with Japan
finally ended September 27 amid upbeat rhetoric but no
concrete decision about the possibility of a summit meeting
between Chinese President Hu Jintao and newly elected
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. According to the
Japanese Embassy here, EVFM Dai Bingguo remained in Tokyo
longer than expected for the talks to await Abe's first
public remarks as PM before returning to Beijing. The talks
focused on historical issues and bilateral relations. Some
interaction between Hu and Abe on the margins of November's
APEC Leaders Meeting was seen as likely but a decision about
resuming leadership meetings may await the outcome of
lower-level bilateral visits in October. Japanese officials
here viewed Beijing's media coverage of Abe's election and
the congratulations message sent him by Premier Wen Jiabao as
mildly positive signs. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) The Sino-Japanese Strategic Dialogue ended September
27 without concrete decisions about the future direction of
bilateral relations or the resumption of high-level meetings
between the two countries' leaders, according to Japanese
Embassy Political Counselor Kazuhiro Suzuki. EVFM Dai
Bingguo, who headed the Chinese delegation, returned to
Beijing September 27, one day after China's Foreign Ministry
spokesman said the Dialogue would go on for "as long as it
takes" (ref A). Suzuki said EVFM Dai remained in Tokyo until
after Abe's election and first press conference as PM to be
sure that Dai's report to leadership in Beijing took into
account Abe's initial public remarks as PM. (Note: Suzuki
noted that Dai had been "burned" when former PM Koizumi
visited the Yasukuni Shrine in October 2005, only days after
Dai's upbeat report to Chinese leaders on the last round of
Strategic Dialogue.)


3. (C) Dai's September 25 meeting with Foreign Minister Aso
focused almost exclusively on historical issues and the
possibility of a future summit meeting. EVFM Dai,
accompanied by Asia Department DG Hu and Japan Division
Counselor Hong, emphasized China's hope for improvement in
bilateral ties under Prime Minister Abe. China's view about
the harm done by Japan's treatment of historical issues and
its insistence that the Prime Minister, Foreign Minister and
Chief Cabinet Secretary should not visit Yasukuni Shrine
remained unchanged, according to Suzuki. FM Aso said the
Japanese Government continues to deal with historical issues
and the question of the Class A War Criminals at Yasukuni
Shrine, but emphasized that the matter was a domestic one and
if China insisted on making it into a foreign policy matter,
it would continue to inflame anti-Chinese sentiment and
damage the bilateral relationship.

October Visits Key To Possibility Of A Summit
--------------


4. (C) The next step in determining whether China is prepared
to hold a formal summit between Hu and Abe will be a series
of meetings in mid-October. Chinese Communist Party
International Department Head Wang Jiarui will travel to
Tokyo October 15-17 for talks with the new LDP Secretary
General Hidenao Nakagawa. If Hu Jintao is prepared to take
further steps towards a summit, he might use Wang's visit to
convey the message, Suzuki speculated. Separately, Chikage
Ogi, speaker of the Upper House of Japan's parliament, will
visit Beijing October 15. Japanese Embassy Counselor Kazuya
Endo separately told poloff September 26 that Tokyo was
extremely optimistic about some kind of interaction between
Abe and Hu on the margins of the November APEC Leaders
Meeting.

Chinese Congratulations, Rhetoric Mildly Upbeat
-------------- --


5. (C) The congratulations message conveyed to PM Abe by
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao September 26 was positive but
nothing out of the ordinary, Suzuki said. Tokyo considered
as more significant Chinese media reports and the Foreign
Ministry spokesman's remarks (ref A) emphasizing Beijing's
willingness to improve bilateral ties and the absence of a
heavy focus on historical issues, Suzuki said. But the
Japanese Embassy took issue with the Foreign Ministry
spokesman's statement that China is waiting to see if Abe's
good words are followed up by deeds, Suzuki said.
SEDNEY