Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BEIJING16879
2006-08-16 11:37:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Beijing
Cable title:  

CHINA-JAPAN RELATIONS: PRC SCHOLARS EXPECT

Tags:  PREL JA CH 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXYZ0006
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBJA #6879 2281137
ZNY CCCCC ZZH ZUI RUEWMCF6025 2281324
O 161137Z AUG 06
FM AMEMBASSY BEIJING
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0000
INFO CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIJING 016879 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/16/2026
TAGS: PREL JA CH


SUBJECT: CHINA-JAPAN RELATIONS: PRC SCHOLARS EXPECT
CONTINUED DIFFICULTIES

REF: A) BEIJING 16819 B) BEIJING 16502

CLASSIFIED BY: POLITICAL MINISTER COUNSELOR DANIEL SHIELDS.
REASONS 1.4 (B/D).

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIJING 016879

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/16/2026
TAGS: PREL JA CH


SUBJECT: CHINA-JAPAN RELATIONS: PRC SCHOLARS EXPECT
CONTINUED DIFFICULTIES

REF: A) BEIJING 16819 B) BEIJING 16502

CLASSIFIED BY: POLITICAL MINISTER COUNSELOR DANIEL SHIELDS.
REASONS 1.4 (B/D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: FOLLOWING PM KOIZUMI'S VISIT TO
YASUKUNI SHRINE, CHINESE JAPAN SCHOLARS ARE FOCUSING
ON WHAT APPROACH CHIEF CABINET SECRETARY ABE MIGHT
TAKE IF, AS WIDELY EXPECTED, ABE BECOMES JAPAN'S NEXT
PRIME MINISTER AFTER PM KOIZUMI STEPS DOWN IN
SEPTEMBER. ABE WOULD PROBABLY BE ABLE TO AVOID
CLARIFYING HIS STANCE, AT LEAST THROUGH THE END OF
2006, ON WHETHER HE WOULD ACTUALLY VISIT YASUKUNI AS
PRIME MINISTER. THIS WOULD CREATE OPPORTUNITIES FOR A
MEETING BETWEEN ABE AND A CHINESE LEADER LATER THIS
YEAR, PERHAPS ON THE MARGINS OF THE APEC MEETINGS IN
HANOI IN NOVEMBER. IN THE LONGER TERM, HOWEVER,
JAPANESE DOMESTIC POLITICAL CONSIDERATIONS WILL FORCE
ABE TO CLARIFY HIS POSITION SOMETIME IN 2007 ON
WHETHER HE WILL VISIT YASUKUNI AS PM. THE CHINESE
SCHOLARS WE MET DO NOT BELIEVE ABE WILL BE ABLE TO
FIND A WAY TO STOP MAKING SHRINE VISITS WITHOUT
ALIENATING HIS CORE CONSTITUENCY. IF ABE VISITS
YASUKUNI AS PM, ANY POST-KOIZUMI IMPROVEMENT IN
BILATERAL ATMOSPHERICS WILL QUICKLY EVAPORATE, THE
SCHOLARS PREDICTED. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) PM KOIZUMI'S LIKELY LAST VISIT TO YASUKUNI AS
JAPAN'S PRIME MINISTER ON AUGUST 15 AND CHINA'S
"HARSH" REACTION WERE WIDELY ANTICIPATED IN BEIJING
POLITICAL CIRCLES, CHINESE SCHOLARS GAO HONG OF THE
CHINA ACADEMY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES (CASS),JIN LINBO OF
THE MFA-AFFILIATED CHINA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL
STUDIES (CIIS) AND LIANG YUNXIANG OF BEIJING
UNIVERSITY TOLD POLMINCOUNS AND POLOFFS IN AN AUGUST
16 MEETING. MEDIA SPECULATION ABOUT THE DETAILS OF
KOIZUMI'S VISIT AND CHINA'S RESPONSE HAD BEEN
PREVIEWED FOR NEARLY THREE WEEKS, THE SCHOLARS SAID.
SOME VIEWED THE MFA'S STATEMENT CRITICIZING THE VISIT
(REF A) AS SOFTER THAN CHINA'S REACTIONS TO KOIZUMI'S
FIVE PREVIOUS YASUKUNI VISITS, ACCORDING TO CIIS'S
JIN. BUT THOSE WHO BELIEVE THAT WHEN KOIZUMI STEPS
DOWN IN SEPTEMBER THERE WILL BE LASTING IMPROVEMENT IN
CHINA-JAPAN RELATIONS ARE "OVERLY OPTIMISTIC," HE
SAID.

BILATERAL TENSIONS TO CONTINUE AFTER CHANGE IN PM
-------------- --------------


3. (C) THE TENSIONS BETWEEN CHINA AND JAPAN OVER

HISTORY RUN DEEPER THAN KOIZUMI'S YASUKUNI VISITS FOR
SEVERAL REASONS, THE SCHOLARS SAID. FIRST, THE
FRICTION OVER HISTORY IS NOT PERSONAL TO KOIZUMI, BUT
REFLECTS THE LACK OF A STRATEGIC BASIS FOR COOPERATION
BETWEEN BEIJING AND TOKYO, BEIJING UNIVERSITY'S LIANG
SAID. SECOND, ABES ATTITUDE TOWARD JAPANS HISTORY
AND RELATIONS WITH CHINA MAY BE TOUGHER THAN
KOIZUMI'S, JIN SAID. HE NOTED IN PARTICULAR ABE'S
FAMILY HISTORY AND ADDED THAT ABE IS MORE IDEOLOGICAL
THAN KOIZUMI. ABE'S OUTSPOKEN ADVOCACY OF DEMOCRACY
AND HUMAN RIGHTS COULD FURTHER COMPLICATE JAPAN-CHINA
RELATIONS. FINALLY, CHINA LINKS YASUKUNI VISITS AND
JAPAN'S HISTORY TO WHETHER CHINESE LEADERS WILL MEET
JAPANESE LEADERS, JIN NOTED. NOW THAT THE LINKAGE HAS
BEEN MADE, CHINA IS UNLIKELY TO QUICKLY BACK DOWN,
EVEN AFTER KOIZUMI IS OUT OF OFFICE, GAO SAID.

POST-KOIZUMI TRANSITION A SHORT-TERM OPPORTUNITY?
-------------- --------------


4. (C) STILL, ABE'S LIKELY ELECTION AS KOIZUMI'S
SUCCESSOR AS PRIME MINISTER COULD PROVIDE A SHORT-TERM
OPPORTUNITY FOR JAPANESE AND CHINESE LEADERS TO MEET,
PERHAPS AS SOON AS THE NOVEMBER APEC LEADERS MEETING
IN HANOI, JIN SAID. BECAUSE ABE APPARENTLY ALREADY
VISITED YASUKUNI IN APRIL AND HAS REFUSED TO COMMENT
ON HIS FUTURE PLANS (OR EVEN TO CONFIRM HIS APRIL
VISIT),ABES LIKELY ELECTION AS PRIME MINISTER
PROVIDES A FACE-SAVING OPPORTUNITY FOR BOTH SIDES,
ACCORDING TO BEIJING UNIVERSITY'S LIANG.


5. (C) IN THE LONGER TERM, HOWEVER, JAPANESE DOMESTIC
POLITICAL CONSIDERATIONS WILL FORCE ABE TO CLARIFY HIS
POSITION SOMETIME IN 2007 ON WHETHER HE WILL VISIT
YASUKUNI AS PM. ON THE CHINESE SIDE AS WELL, THE MORE
TIME THAT GOES BY, THE MORE PRESSURE THERE WILL BE FOR
CLARITY REGARDING ABE'S INTENTIONS. CHINESE LEADERS
WILL HESITATE TO MEET ABE IF THEY FEAR HE MIGHT VISIT
YASUKUNI. THE CHINESE SCHOLARS WE MET DO NOT BELIEVE

ABE WILL BE ABLE TO FIND A WAY TO STOP MAKING SHRINE
VISITS WITHOUT ALIENATING HIS CORE CONSTITUENCY. IF
ABE VISITS YASUKUNI AS PM, ANY POST-KOIZUMI
IMPROVEMENT IN BILATERAL ATMOSPHERICS WILL QUICKLY
EVAPORATE, THE SCHOLARS PREDICTED.


6. (C) CHINA AND JAPAN ARE UNLIKELY TO BE ABLE TO
IMPROVE RELATIONS IN ANY SUBSTANTIVE AREA UNLESS AND
UNTIL YASUKUNI ISSUES ARE RESOLVED, CASS'S GAO SAID.
ATMOSPHERICS ARE IMPORTANT TO CHINA AND JAPAN, HE
SAID. RESOLVING THE YASUKUNI ISSUE IS NOT, BY ITSELF,
ENOUGH TO IMPROVE CHINA-JAPAN RELATIONS, AGREED
BEIJING UNIVERSITYS LIANG. BUT WITHOUT RESOLVING THE
YASUKUNI ISSUE, BILATERAL RELATIONS CANNOT IMPROVE IN
OTHER AREAS, BECAUSE DISPUTES OVER HISTORY WILL RUIN
THE ATMOSPHERE FOR ANY TALKS, HE SAID.

CHINA URGES THE U.S. TO TAKE BEIJING'S SIDE
--------------


7. (C) ALL THREE SCHOLARS URGED THE UNITED STATES TO
TAKE A MORE ACTIVE ROLE IN RESOLVING CONFLICTS BETWEEN
JAPAN AND ITS NEIGHBORS OVER HISTORY. THE UNITED
STATES NOT ONLY HAS AN INTEREST IN BETTER RELATIONS
BETWEEN ITS JAPANESE ALLY AND OTHER ASIAN COUNTRIES,
LIANG SAID, BUT IT ALSO IS THE PRIME BENEFICIARY OF
THE GLOBAL ARCHITECTURE ARISING OUT OF JAPAN'S WWII
DEFEAT. POLMINCOUNS RESPONDED THAT THE UNITED STATES
HOPES THE COUNTRIES IN THE REGION CAN WORK OUT THESE
ISSUES THROUGH DIALOGUE.


8. (C) LIANG OFFERED THAT THE BEST CHANNEL THROUGH
WHICH TO IMPROVE CHINA-JAPAN RELATIONS IN THE NEAR
TERM IS A MULTILATERAL ONE THAT INCLUDES CHINA, KOREA,
JAPAN AND THE UNITED STATES. ANOTHER POSSIBILITY FOR
RESOLVING THE YASUKUNI ISSUE IS TO CHANGE THE NATURE
OF THE SHRINE ITSELF, HE SUGGESTED. MERELY REMOVING
THE GRAVES OF THE CLASS A WAR CRIMINALS FROM YASUKUNI
WOULD NOT SATISFY CHINA AND KOREA, HE SAID.

OTHER ISSUES TAKE A BACK SEAT TO HISTORY
--------------


9. (C) CHINA AND JAPAN HAVE MANY COMMON ECONOMIC
INTERESTS THAT COULD BE PROMISING TOPICS FOR LEADERS
TO DISCUSS IF RELATIONS IMPROVED, THE SCHOLARS SAID.
CHINESE OFFICIALS HAVE BEEN EAGER TO WORK WITH
JAPANESE ON ENERGY AND TRADE ISSUES, INCLUDING ENERGY
CONSERVATION, WTO RULES AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION,
GAO OFFERED. POLITICAL ISSUES, INCLUDING TAIWAN,
NORTH KOREA, JAPAN'S BID FOR PERMANENT MEMBERSHIP ON
THE UN SECURITY COUNCIL AND TERRITORIAL DISPUTES IN
THE EAST CHINA SEA ARE FAR MORE DIFFICULT, THEY NOTED.

WHY NO MASS DEMONSTRATIONS?
--------------


10. (C) ALL THREE SCHOLARS AGREED THAT THE CHINESE
GOVERNMENT IS NOT LIKELY TO PERMIT LARGE-SCALE ANTI-
JAPANESE DEMONSTRATIONS SUCH AS THOSE THAT BROUGHT
TENS OF THOUSANDS ACROSS CHINA INTO THE STREETS IN
APRIL 2005. THEY JOKED ABOUT THE BRIEF AND PUNY
DEMONSTRATION IN FRONT OF THE JAPANESE EMBASSY AUGUST
15 (REF B),SAYING THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT DID NOT WANT
ANY LARGE-SCALE DEMONSTRATIONS BUT IT WOULD HAVE BEEN
IT WOULD HAVE BEEN AWKWARD FOR BEIJING IF THERE HAD
LITERALLY BEEN NO DEMONSTRATIONS AT ALL. UNLESS A NEW
ISSUE ARISES, SUCH AS THE REEMERGENCE OF THE PROSPECT
OF JAPANESE PERMANENT MEMBERSHIP ON THE UNSC, WHICH
COMBINED WITH THE HISTORY ISSUE TO PRODUCE THE LARGE
APRIL 2005 RALLIES, CHINESE CITIZENS ARE UNLIKELY TO
TAKE TO THE STREETS IN FUTURE OVER VISITS TO YASUKUNI
SHRINE, THEY PREDICTED.
RANDT