PRC/LEBANON: BEIJING SKEPTICAL ABOUT PROSPECTS FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIJING 016822

SIPDIS

SIPDIS



USUN FOR PHEE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/15/2016
TAGS: PREL PTER MOPS CH UN IS LE
SUBJECT: PRC/LEBANON: BEIJING SKEPTICAL ABOUT PROSPECTS FOR
SUCCESSFUL IMPLEMENTATION OF UNSCR 1701


CLASSIFIED BY: POLITICAL EXTERNAL UNIT CHIEF EDGARD D. KAGAN. REASONS
1.4 (B/D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: BEIJING BELIEVES UNSRC 1701 IS A "GOOD
RESOLUTION" BUT IS SKEPTICAL ABOUT PROSPECTS FOR ITS
SUCCESSFUL IMPLEMENTATION. MFA WEST ASIA AND NORTH AFRICA
DEPARTMENT LEVANT DIVISION DIRECTOR CHEN WEIQING SAID AUGUST
15 THAT EFFECTIVE IMPLEMENTATION OF UNSCR 1701 WILL DEPEND ON
RESOLVING THE FOUR DIFFICULT ISSUES OF DISARMING HEZBOLLAH,
RESOLVING THE SHEBA FARMS ISSUE, RELEASING ISRAELI AND
HEZBOLLAH PRISONERS AS WELL AS DEPLOYING AN INTERNATIONAL
PEACE-KEEPING FORCE. THESE QUESTIONS MUST BE SEEN WITHIN THE
BROADER CONTEXT OF THE IRANIAN NUCLEAR ISSUE AND THE LARGER
ISRAEL-PALESTINE CONFLICT, ACCORDING TO CHEN. AN ARMED
HEZBOLLAH WILL EXIST AS LONG AS THE ARAB-ISRAELI CONFLICT
EXISTS, HE SAID, EXPRESSING HIS VIEW THAT HEZBOLLAH WILL NOT
BE QUICKLY OR EASILY DISARMED. DURING THE CONFLICT, BEIJING
URGED SYRIA AND IRAN TO USE THEIR INFLUENCE IN THE REGION IN
A POSITIVE WAY. ASSISTANT FOREIGN MINISTER CUI TIANKAI WILL
CERTAINLY RAISE LEBANON AND THE IMPORTANCE OF NOT DISRUPTING
REGIONAL STABILITY DURING HIS CURRENT VISIT TO TEHRAN TO
DISCUSS THE IRANIAN NUCLEAR ISSUE. END SUMMARY.

DISARMING HEZBOLLAH IS THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE
--------------


2. (C) POLOFFS MET AUGUST 15 WITH MFA WEST ASIA AND NORTH
AFRICA DEPARTMENT LEVANT DIVISION DIRECTOR CHEN WEIQING, A
FORMER DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF THE IRAN DIVISION WHO CHANGED JOBS
THREE WEEKS AGO. CHEN SAID BEIJING HAS NOTED THE
CONSTRUCTIVE U.S. ROLE IN ACHIEVING CONSENSUS ON UNSCR 1701
AND COMMENTED THAT THE PRC UN MISSION REPORTED FAVORABLY ON
COOPERATION WITH USUN IN DISCUSSIONS LEADING TO THE
RESOLUTION'S ADOPTION. HIGHLIGHTING CHINA'S SUPPORT FOR THE
QUICK END TO FIGHTING IN LEBANON, CHEN SAID THAT
IMPLEMENTATION WILL BE HAMPERED BY SEVERAL COMPLICATED AND
INTERRELATED PROBLEMS. DISARMING HEZBOLLAH, RESOLVING THE
SHEBBA FARMS ISSUE, RELEASING THE TWO ISRAELI SOLDIERS IN
HEZBOLLAH CUSTODY AS WELL AS LEBANESE PRISONERS CAPTURED BY
ISRAEL AND DEPLOYING AN INTERNATIONAL PEACE-KEEPING FORCE ARE
MAJOR QUESTIONS THAT MUST BE ADDRESSED FOR EFFECTIVE
IMPLEMENTATION OF 1701, ACCORDING TO CHEN.


3. (C) AFTER READING RECENT REPORTS FROM THE PRC EMBASSY IN
BEIRUT STATING SUPPORT FOR HEZBOLLAH COMES NOT ONLY FROM
RELIGIOUS EXTREMISTS BUT FROM BOTH LEFTIST AND RIGHTIST
INTELLECTUALS, CHEN SAID HE IS MORE CONVINCED THAT DISARMING
HEZBOLLAH WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT. IN HIS OPINION, AN ARMED
HEZBOLLAH WILL EXIST AS LONG AS THE LARGER ARAB-ISRAELI
CONFLICT CONTINUES. EVEN IF HEZBOLLAH IS SIGNIFICANTLY
DISARMED, CHEN PREDICTED THAT SOME OTHER ARMED FACTION WILL
ARISE TO FILL THE VACUUM, THOUGH HE STRESSED THAT THIS IS HIS
PERSONAL VIEW AND NOT AN OFFICIAL POSITION.


4. (C) THE BEST WAY FORWARD IS TO CONTINUE TO ENCOURAGE
HEZBOLLAH TO DEVELOP AS A POLITICAL PARTY BY GIVING IT THE
"SPACE TO DEVELOP," ARGUED CHEN. POLOFF POINTED OUT THAT
HEZBOLLAH REFUSED TO DISARM FOR SIX YEARS SINCE ISRAEL'S 2000
WITHDRAWAL FROM LEBANON AND CHOSE TO PROVOKE THE CURRENT
CRISIS. THE PROBLEM IS NOT A LACK OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
HEZBOLLAH TO MAKE THE TRANSITION TO A POLITICAL PARTY, BUT
RATHER A LACK OF DESIRE, SAID POLOFF.

IRAN, SYRIA AND THE ARAB-ISRAELI CONFLICT
--------------


5. (C) THE LARGER ISSUES IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND THE CURRENT
CONFLICT IN LEBANON ARE ALL RELATED TO ISRAELS CONFLICTS
WITH PALESTINE, SYRIA AND LEBANON AND POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS
MUST BE EXAMINED IN THIS BROADER CONTEXT, SAID CHEN. ANOTHER
EXTERNAL SOURCE OF TENSION IN LEBANON IS THE IRANIAN NUCLEAR
ISSUE. CHEN SAID INTERNATIONAL PRESSURE IS NECESSARY TO
BRING IRAN BACK TO THE FOLD, AND, NOTING THAT WHEN CORNERED
EVEN A RABBIT WILL BITE, HE SAID THE KEY IS TO OFFER IRAN A
VIABLE "WAY OUT." WHEN POLOFF POINTED OUT THAT IRAN HAD
ALREADY BEEN GIVEN SEVERAL OPTIONS FOR "WAYS OUT" BUT HAD
EXPRESSED NO INTEREST IN TAKING ANY OF THEM, CHEN ARGUED THAT
IRAN HAS A SPECIAL BACKGROUND AND HISTORICAL BURDENS. HE
LIKENED DEALING WITH IRAN TO DEALING WITH A PERSON WITH A
DELICATE EGO AND TOO MUCH PRIDE, AND URGED THE U.S. TO PAY
ATTENTION TO THE "WAYS AND MEANS" OF DEALING WITH IRAN SO AS
NOT TO ENFLAME THAT PRIDE.


6. (C) IRAN, LIKE NORTH KOREA, ATTACHES IMPORTANCE TO DIRECT
DIALOGUE WITH THE U.S. AND THIS WOULD BE THE MOST DIRECT WAY
TO RESOLVE DIFFERENCES, SAID CHEN. HE SAID THAT INCLUDING
THE EU AND RUSSIA IN THE DISCUSSION CAN SOMETIMES CLOUD THE
ISSUES AND CREATE CONFUSION IN IRAN ABOUT THE "TRUE" U.S.
POSITION. DISAGREEING, POLOFF STATED THAT RECENT FACTS SHOW
IRAN IS NOT INTERESTED IN HONEST DIALOGUE WITH THE U.S. AND
IRAN HAS NOT BEEN AT ALL RECEPTIVE TO RECENT, SIGNIFICANT
STEPS BY THE U.S. TO FIND A WAY FORWARD.

SHEBBA FARMS
--------------

7. (C) CHEN SAID CHINA'S OFFICIAL POLICY ON THE SHEBBA FARMS
ISSUE IS THAT THE CONCERNED PARTIES SHOULD CONSULT ABOUT THE
ISSUE TO REACH A BALANCED RESULT. POLOFF NOTED THAT THIS
APPEARS TO BE SHIFT FROM 2000, WHEN CHINA SUPPORTED THE UN'S
ENDORSEMENT OF ISRAEL'S PULL-OUT FROM SOUTHERN LEBANON. WHEN
ASKED WHY BEIJING NOW SEES THE ISSUE AS OPEN FOR DISCUSSION
AND WHETHER THE PRC IS CONCERNED ABOUT SETTING PRECEDENTS FOR
ITS OWN DISPUTED BOUNDARIES, CHEN COMMENTED THAT HE IS NEW TO
THE JOB AND REPEATED THAT THE ISSUE IS ONE TO BE RESOLVED BY
THE INTERESTED PARTIES.

CHINA TALKS TO SYRIA AND IRAN
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8. (C) DURING THE CONFLICT, BEIJING HAD FRANK EXCHANGES WITH
SYRIA AND ALSO MET SEVERAL TIMES WITH IRAN, ACCORDING TO
CHEN. CHINA URGED SYRIA TO USE ITS INFLUENCE IN THE REGION
IN A POSITIVE WAY, WARNING AGAINST STEPS THAT MIGHT EXPAND
THE CONFLICT. BEIJING CONVEYED SIMILAR MESSAGES TO TEHRAN,
SAID CHEN, WHO COMMENTED THAT THE IRANIANS "HAD THEIR OWN
VIEWS" ON THE ISSUE. ASSISTANT FOREIGN MINISTER CUI TIANKAI
IS CURRENTLY IN TEHRAN TO DISCUSS THE IRANIAN NUCLEAR ISSUE
AND WILL CERTAINLY DISCUSS LEBANON DURING HIS VISIT.

UNIFIL
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9. (C) BEIJING HAS NOT YET DECIDED WHETHER IT WOULD
PARTICIPATE IN AN EXPANDED UNIFIL PEACE-KEEPING OPERATION,
AND IN FACT, HAS NOT DECIDED WHETHER TO MAINTAIN THE CHINESE
PEACE-KEEPERS CURRENTLY IN LEBANON. POLOFF STRESSED THE
IMPORTANCE OF AN EXPANDED AND CREDIBLE UNIFIL TO SUCCESSFUL
IMPLEMENTATION OF UNSCR 1701.
RANDT