Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BEIJING16502
2006-08-11 08:54:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Beijing
Cable title:  

BEIJING DOES NOT EXPECT SERIOUS ANTI-JAPAN

Tags:  PREL ASEC JA CH 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXYZ0021
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBJA #6502 2230854
ZNY CCCCC ZZH ZUI RUEWMCF3536 2230848
O 110854Z AUG 06
FM AMEMBASSY BEIJING
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE/WASHDC 0000
INFO CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC 0000
RHHJJPI/PACOM IDHS HONOLULU HI
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIJING 016502 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/CM, EAP/J AND DS/IP/EAP





E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/11/2031
TAGS: PREL ASEC JA CH
SUBJECT: BEIJING DOES NOT EXPECT SERIOUS ANTI-JAPAN
PROTESTS IF KOIZUMI VISITS YASUKUNI SHRINE

REF: OSC CPP2006081106407

CLASSIFIED BY: POLITICAL MINISTER COUNSELOR DANIEL SHIELDS. REASONS
C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIJING 016502

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/CM, EAP/J AND DS/IP/EAP





E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/11/2031
TAGS: PREL ASEC JA CH
SUBJECT: BEIJING DOES NOT EXPECT SERIOUS ANTI-JAPAN
PROTESTS IF KOIZUMI VISITS YASUKUNI SHRINE

REF: OSC CPP2006081106407

CLASSIFIED BY: POLITICAL MINISTER COUNSELOR DANIEL SHIELDS. REASONS 1.
4 (B/D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: NEITHER JAPANESE DIPLOMATS NOR
BEIJING-BASED JAPAN EXPERTS ANTICIPATE LARGE-SCALE
ANTI-JAPANESE PROTESTS SUCH AS THOSE THAT OCCURRED IN APRIL
2005 SHOULD JAPANESE PM KOIZUMI VISIT YASUKUNI SHRINE ON OR
AROUND AUGUST 15. THE JAPANESE EMBASSY HERE TWEAKED ITS
EMERGENCY PLAN IN CASE OF ANTI-JAPANESE RIOTING, BUT
OFFICIALS SAID LARGE-SCALE PROTESTS ARE UNLIKELY. CHINESE
COMMENTATORS AND THE PUBLIC WILL CRITICIZE A KOIZUMI VISIT,
BUT THE GOVERNMENT DOES NOT WANT ANTI-JAPANESE OPINION TO GET
"OUT OF HAND." A FOREIGN MINISTRY OFFICIAL DOWNPLAYED A
PRESS REPORT CLAIMING CHINA HAD URGED KOIZUMI NOT TO VISIT
THE SHRINE AND SCHOLARS SAID CHINA'S LOW-KEY REACTION TO NEWS
REPORTS THAT CHIEF CABINET SECRETARY SHINZO ABE VISITED
YASUKUNI SHRINE IN APRIL ARE SIGNS THAT BEIJING IS TAKING A
MORE ACCOMMODATING ATTITUDE TOWARD JAPAN AND, ESPECIALLY, ITS
LIKELY NEXT PRIME MINISTER. END SUMMARY.

MAJOR ANTI-JAPANESE PROTESTS UNLIKELY
--------------


2. (C) LARGE-SCALE ANTI-JAPANESE PROTESTS, SUCH AS THE APRIL
2005 ONES THAT DREW TENS OF THOUSANDS OF PROTESTERS, ARE
UNLIKELY SHOULD PM KOIZUMI VISIT THE YASUKUNI SHRINE AUGUST
15, ACCORDING TO OUR CHINESE AND JAPANESE EMBASSY CONTACTS.
(NOTE: THERE WERE NO SIGNIFICANT DEMONSTRATIONS FOLLOWING
KOIZUMIS LAST VISIT TO YASUKUNI IN OCTOBER 2005. END NOTE.)
THE JAPANESE EMBASSY IN BEIJING HAS MADE EMERGENCY
PREPARATIONS FOR THE UNLIKELY POSSIBILITY OF LARGE-SCALE
PROTESTS, POLITICAL COUNSELOR KAZUHIRO SUZUKI TOLD US, BUT
BELIEVES IT UNLIKELY THAT ANY DAMAGE WILL OCCUR, SUCH AS
RESULTED TO JAPANESE DIPLOMATIC FACILITIES AND BUSINESSES
DURING THE APRIL 2005 PROTESTS IN BEIJING, SHANGHAI AND
ELSEWHERE IN CHINA. BEIJING PUBLIC SECURITY CONTACTS TOLD
RSO THAT THEY EXPECT ALL WILL BE QUIET. ACTIVIST ATTORNEY
ZHANG XINGSHUI, A DEFENDER OF SOME DETAINED IN CONNECTION
WITH THE APRIL 2005 MARCHES IN BEIJING, SAID HE WAS NOT AWARE
OF ANY PLANNED ANTI-JAPAN DEMONSTRATIONS, WHILE MFA JAPAN
DIVISION DEPUTY DIRECTOR LU GUIJUN TOLD POLOFF LARGE-SCALE
PROTESTS WOULD BE "IMPOSSIBLE."

CHINA TAKING A MORE ACCOMMODATING STANCE?
--------------


3. (C) LU DOWNPLAYED AN AUGUST 11 HONG KONG-BASED REPORT
(REFTEL) ASSERTING THAT THE FOREIGN MINISTRY URGED KOIZUMI TO
TAKE A "RESPONSIBLE ATTITUDE TOWARD HISTORY" AND NOT VISIT
THE SHRINE ON AUGUST 15. LU SAID THE COMMENT WAS A WRITTEN
RESPONSE TO A REPORTER'S QUESTION, BUT WAS NOT MEANT AS A
"FOREIGN MINISTRY STATEMENT." THE MFA WAS INTENTIONALLY
REFRAINING FROM ISSUING A STATEMENT TO "WAIT AND SEE" WHAT
KOIZUMI DOES ON AUGUST 15, HE SAID. NONETHELESS, AN AUGUST
11 PEOPLE'S DAILY EDITORIAL MINCED NO WORDS IN URGING KOIZUMI
NOT TO VISIT YASUKUNI SHRINE.


4. (C) CHINA HAS TAKEN A MORE ACCOMMODATING STANCE TOWARD
JAPAN RECENTLY AND SPECIFICALLY TOWARD THE ISSUE OF YASUKUNI
VISITS, SUZUKI SAID, OFFERING HIS PERSONAL VIEW THAT CHINA IS
SEEKING A "WAY OUT" OF THE CONFLICT OVER PM KOIZUMI'S VISITS
TO THE SHRINE. CHINA REMAINED SILENT OVER NEWS REPORTS THAT
CHIEF CABINET SECRETARY AND LIKELY FUTURE PM SHINZO ABE MADE
A PRIVATE VISIT TO THE SHRINE IN APRIL, CASS SCHOLAR JIN XIDE
NOTED. JAPAN SEES CHINAS SILENCE AS A POSITIVE SIGN, SUZUKI
SAID, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THE SOUTH KOREAN GOVERNMENT
QUICKLY CRITICIZED ABE'S REPORTED APRIL VISIT.

SCHOLARS: KOIZUMI HEADING OUT, CHINAS EYES ON ABE
-------------- --------------


5. (C) SCHOLAR HU JIPING SAID THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT'S
SILENCE ABOUT ABE'S VISIT IS A TACTICAL MOVE AIMED AT KEEPING
OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF GOOD RELATIONS WITH JAPAN'S LIKELY
NEXT PRIME MINISTER BUT DOES NOT INDICATE ANY CHANGE IN
ATTITUDE TOWARD YASUKUNI SHRINE OR JAPAN'S WORLD WAR II
HISTORY. THE CHINESE PUBLIC AND MEDIA WILL REACT STRONGLY
AND NEGATIVELY TO A SHRINE VISIT BY PM KOIZUMI, BUT THE
CHINESE GOVERNMENT REACTION WILL BE LESS EXTREME THAN IN THE
PAST BECAUSE BEIJING KNOWS KOIZUMI IS STEPPING DOWN, SAID HU,
DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF THE CHINA INSTITUTE OF CONTEMPORARY
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS JAPAN DIVISION. CHNA CANNOT "STEP
BACK" BUT WANTS TO FIND A "WA AROUND" CONFLICT SO THAT IT
HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF COOPERATION WITH JAPAN AND ABE IN THE
FUTURE, HE SAID. NONETHELESS, THE "STRONG RESENTMENT IN THE


HEARTS OF THE CHINESE PEOPLE" GENERATED BY KOIZUMI'S VISITS
TO THE SHRINE WILL NOT IMMEDIATELY BE WASHED AWAY EVEN WHEN
HE STEPS DOWN AS PM, ACCORDING TO HU, WHO PREDICTED
CHINA-JAPANESE CONFLICTS OVER HISTORY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE.
RANDT