Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BEIJING11183
2006-06-05 11:09:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Beijing
Cable title:  

PRC/JAPAN: BEIJING SATISFIED WITH LI-ASO MEETING,

Tags:  PREL PGOV JA CH 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO7699
OO RUEHCN RUEHGH
DE RUEHBJ #1183/01 1561109
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 051109Z JUN 06
FM AMEMBASSY BEIJING
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7610
INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 011183 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/05/2021
TAGS: PREL PGOV JA CH
SUBJECT: PRC/JAPAN: BEIJING SATISFIED WITH LI-ASO MEETING,
BUT TENSIONS REMAIN

REF: TOKYO 2916

Classified By: Political External Unit Chief Edgard Kagan. Reasons 1.4
(b/d).

Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 011183

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/05/2021
TAGS: PREL PGOV JA CH
SUBJECT: PRC/JAPAN: BEIJING SATISFIED WITH LI-ASO MEETING,
BUT TENSIONS REMAIN

REF: TOKYO 2916

Classified By: Political External Unit Chief Edgard Kagan. Reasons 1.4
(b/d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) China was satisfied with the tone of the meeting
between Foreign Ministers Li Zhaoxing and Taro Aso on May 23
in Doha, MFA Deputy Director of the Japan Division Lu Guijun
told poloff, while cautioning that bilateral relations remain
difficult. The decision to allow FM Li to meet his
counterpart was only made at the last moment after much
debate at State Councilor Tang's Jiaxuan's level. Lu said
China was pleased with FM Aso's "good attitude." The two
sides agreed to resume security talks, to increase the
frequency of East China Sea dispute consultations and to
discuss the establishment of a mechanism to deal with
possible incidents in the disputed area. No progress was
made on halting the Yasukuni Shrine visits and China believes
Prime Minister Koizumi will visit Yasukuni again before
leaving office. Beijing will strongly criticize Koizumi and
temporarily slow East China Sea talks but will not allow
demonstrations. A Li-Aso meeting at the July 28 ASEAN
Regional Forum in Kuala Lumpur is possible. Contacts from
other Embassies report that the PRC believes that its
hard-line on Yasukuni is working and has led FM Aso to
moderate the tone of his remarks on China. End Summary.


2. (C) MFA Asian Department Deputy Division Director for
Japan Lu Guijun told poloff on June 2 that PRC Foreign
Minister Li Zhaoxing made two main points to Japan Foreign
Minister Taro Aso during their May 23 meeting in Doha.
First, good relations with Japan are essential to China.
Second, the bilateral relationship will only develop
positively once the history issue is resolved correctly.
While there was no progress in resolving specific historical
issues or in halting the visits to the Yasukuni Shrine, China
was pleased that FM Aso had a "good attitude" during the
meeting and did not give any indication that he would visit
Yasukuni himself, according to Lu.


3. (C) Lu said FM Li and FM Aso agreed to hold security
talks this year for the first time since 2004, with Vice

Foreign Minister Wu Dawei and Deputy Foreign Minister Tsuneo
Nishida expected to lead those discussions. The two foreign
ministers agreed to hold more frequent consultations on the
East China Sea dispute and discuss establishing a
communication mechanism to deal with possible incidents in
the area. Lu said that the key points for China were that
Japan has a better understanding of Beijing's position on the
history issue and the two sides have agreed on the need for
cooperation and dialogue in a wide range of areas, despite
the ongoing tensions.

PRC: Bilateral Relations Still "Very Difficult"
-------------- --


4. (C) Lu took pains to point out that despite China's
satisfaction with the overall tone of the meeting,
Sino-Japanese relations are essentially unchanged and remain
"very difficult" because there is no resolution to the
Yasukuni Shrine issue. China believes Prime Minister
Junichiro Koizumi will visit to Yasukuni once more before
departing office. This would force China to criticize Japan
and to suspend bilateral discussions, such as on the East
China Sea, for a couple of months. However, because Koizumi
will be stepping down in September, long-term fallout from a
final visit to Yasukuni is unlikely. Lu said it is still
unclear whether Koizumi's successor will visit the Yasukuni
Shrine, leaving the current situation tense and the future
unclear. In any case, there will be no anti-Japanese
demonstrations because the Chinese government will not allow
it. "It is within the PRC government's power to control this
situation," Lu said.

PRC Delayed Approval Until Last Minute
--------------


5. (C) Lu said the decision to allow FM Li to meet with his
Japanese counterpart was not made until the very last moment
because there was debate about whether a meeting between the
two top diplomats would be beneficial to relations. The
discussion and eventual decision was made at State Councilor
Tang Jiaxuan's level. As to whether Foreign Ministers Li and
Aso meet at the July 28 ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) in Kuala
Lumpur, Lu said China will look at the situation and
conditions at that time before making a decision. He
anticipates that once again that there will be debate at the

BEIJING 00011183 002 OF 002


highest levels of the PRC Government and a decision will not
be reached until just prior to the event.

Other Embassies: PRC Believes Japan Policy is Working
-------------- --------------


6. (C) At a regular meeting of French, UK, Russian, Japanese
and U.S. political officers reporting on external issues,
French Political Counselor Fabrice Mauries said that PRC EVFM
Dai Bingguo had recently told President Chirac's Diplomatic
Advisor Maurice Gourdot-Montaigne during their May 14-16
Strategic Dialogue that Beijing believes its approach toward
Japan is working. Dai said that China has taken a tough line
toward Japan following PM Koizumi's most recent visit to the
Yasukuni Shrine, to the point of cutting off meetings at the
FM level and other regular exchanges. Acknowledging that
this angered the Japanese, Dai reportedly told
Gourdot-Montaigne that the PRC approach has led to greater
concern on the part of the Japanese business community. The
PRC has also taken a very tough line with FM Aso, complaining
strongly about his statements on Taiwan and China. Dai told
Gourdot-Montaigne that the PRC believes that Aso suffered
politically from his sustained failure to meet with his PRC
counterpart, which has led him to moderate his public
statements on China. Dai told Gourdot-Montaigne that Beijing
believed that it was now time to hold a meeting with FM Aso
in order to show Japanese politicians the benefits of taking
a more moderate approach toward China.


7. (C) Russian Embassy Political Officer Oleg Serov agreed
that the PRC believes its approach toward Japan is working.
He said that both official and academic contacts tell the
Russian Embassy that the current PRC strategy is to take a
very hard line on the Yasukuni Shrine in hopes of deterring
future visits by Prime Ministers. Serov said that a senior
Communist Party official (NFI) recently tol the Russian
Ambassador that Beijing understands that Koizumi cannot show
flexibility under pressure and that PRC tactics are
alienating many Japanese. However, the official argued that
the PRC approach has led to greater public debate about the
Shrine within Japan, as well as causing the leading
candidates to be the next PM to moderate the tone of their
remarks on both China and the Shrine.


8. (C) Japanese Embassy Political Counselor Kazuhiro Suzuki
disagreed, arguing that it is the PRC that is changing its
tone by agreeing to a meeting between the foreign ministers.
He then acknowledged that PRC officials believe that their
approach to Japan is working and complained that Beijing is
using the same tactics it has used against Taiwan by writing
off PM Koizumi while trying to reach out to business and
opposition groups to build support for its position. He said
that the PRC has avoided attacking Chief Cabinet Secretary
Shinzo Abe for his remarks on the Yasukuni Shrine and on
China, focusing instead on FM Aso's statements. Suzuki said
that Japanese Embassy contacts uniformly say that Beijing
expects Abe to replace PM Koizumi, although former Chief
Cabinet Secretary Fukuda improving poll results are drawing
considerable attention from PRC Japan experts.
RANDT