Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BASRAH70
2006-05-07 14:00:00
CONFIDENTIAL
REO Basrah
Cable title:  

SNAPSHOT OF DHI QAR: PROVINCE AT A CROSSROADS

Tags:  PGOV PREL PREF PINR ECON EAID ELAB KDEM KISL 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO6378
OO RUEHDE RUEHIHL RUEHKUK RUEHMOS
DE RUEHBC #0070/01 1271400
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 071400Z MAY 06
FM REO BASRAH
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0331
INFO RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE
RUEHBC/REO BASRAH 0350
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BASRAH 000070 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 5/7/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF PINR ECON EAID ELAB KDEM KISL
SOCI, SMIG, IZ
SUBJECT: SNAPSHOT OF DHI QAR: PROVINCE AT A CROSSROADS

REF: A) BASRAH 55 B) BASRAH 149

BASRAH 00000070 001.2 OF 004


CLASSIFIED BY: Ken Gross, Regional Coordinator, REO Basrah,
Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)



C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BASRAH 000070

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 5/7/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF PINR ECON EAID ELAB KDEM KISL
SOCI, SMIG, IZ
SUBJECT: SNAPSHOT OF DHI QAR: PROVINCE AT A CROSSROADS

REF: A) BASRAH 55 B) BASRAH 149

BASRAH 00000070 001.2 OF 004


CLASSIFIED BY: Ken Gross, Regional Coordinator, REO Basrah,
Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)




1. (C) Summary: The province of Dhi Qar is located about 200
miles southeast of Baghdad and has an estimated population of
1.85 million. More politically moderate and secular than the
other Shia-dominated southern provinces, the influence of Shia
religious political parties has grown in past months. An
economically significant region, with rich agricultural land,
marshes, and both an oil refinery and an important electric
power plant, Dhi Qar enjoys considerable international donor
investment for key infrastructure projects. Until recently one
of the more secure and stable provinces, Dhi Qar has seen a
disturbing downward trend in both political infighting and
worsening security since the February 22 attacks on the Golden
Mosque of Samarra. An estimated 700 Shia families fleeing
sectarian violence have settled in Dhi Qar since the Samarra
attack, straining public services. Dhi Qar province is at a
crossroads-- conditions will continue to deteriorate unless
substantial efforts are made by the local and national
governments, Iraqi security forces, and international
organizations to get the province back on its previous track of
political tolerance and economic growth. End Summary.

Overview
--------------


2. (U) The province of Dhi Qar is located about 200 miles
southeast of Baghdad and has an estimated population of 1.85
million. It is landlocked and has no international borders.
Its capital, Nasiriyah, is located on the Euphrates River and

has a population of about 600,000. It is surrounded by the
provinces of Basrah, Muthanna, Maysan, Wasit and Qadisiyah,
although it is most closely affiliated politically and
economically with Basrah and Maysan. A significant portion of
the province is marshland. Principal industries are electricity
generation, oil refining, tar production for road paving, and
agriculture, including date palm farming. A number of
archaeological sites are located in Dhi Qar, including the
ancient Sumerian ruins of Ur and Eridu.


3. (U) The population of Dhi Qar province is majority Shia;
Sunnis are estimated to be less than ten percent of the
population, and Christians and Sabeans make up an estimated two
percent of the population. The population of Dhi Qar province
is increasing. Not only have many Shia returned to the province
from abroad following the fall of Saddam's regime in 2003, but
there has been rapid population growth in the province due to
internal displacement since the February 22 Samarra mosque
attacks, when Shia in the north began fleeing sectarian
violence. The annual median household income in Dhi Qar is
2,156,080 Iraqi dinars, approximately $1487. (Note: These
figures are from UNDP and the 2004 Ministry of Planning Survey
published May 2005. End Note.)

Politics
--------------


4. (C) The current local government is made up of eleven
Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) party
members, eleven Fadhila members, ten Da'wa members, two Iraqi
Communist Party (ICP) members, two 15th Shabaan Party members,
two Iraqi National Accord (INA) members, two independents, and
one Independent League for Democratic Custody member. Although
Dhi Qar is considered more politically moderate and secular than
either Basrah or Maysan, its government is dominated
nevertheless by Unified Iraqi Coalition (UIC) - 555 List -
parties.


5. (C) In the December 15 elections, the UIC - 555 List - won
eleven of Dhi Qar's twelve seats in the National Assembly, with
the remaining seat going to the INA - 731 List - coalition.
UIC expected to have a strong showing in Dhi Qar due to its
large Shia population, but its overwhelming success was a
surprise.


6. (C) The Iraqi Communist Party has maintained its national
headquarters in Nasiriyah since 1938 and sustains an active
political presence in Dhi Qar. The ICP developed a reputation
as an anti-Ba'athist party; its members are mostly educated Shia
and Kurdish who were specifically targeted by Saddam's regime.
In Dhi Qar province, the ICP draws its support mainly from the
educated and secular Shia population. Now, the ICP is
considered to be one of the secular opposition parties to the
UIC - 555 List - and does not actively promote a communist
economic platform. With religious Shia parties in control of

BASRAH 00000070 002.2 OF 004


Dhi Qar's local government, the ICP maintains its identity as a
resistance and opposition party by pitting its secular values
over religious government. Ironically, this makes members of
the Communist Party open and interested in maintaining contact
with Western coalition forces, while at the same time drawing
the ire of religious Shia parties that also developed, as did
the ICP, in opposition to Saddam's regime.


7. (C) The Dhi Qar provincial council had a reputation of
efficiency and political tolerance until the period following
the February 22 Samarra mosque attack. Since then, open
hostility between Fadhila and SCIRI party members has broken
out. Members of these two political parties reportedly refuse
to speak or work together in council meetings. The trigger of
the hostility between Fadhila and SCIRI allegedly was fighting
over the use of a public building. The building in question had
been used by the Fadhila party for religious education; SCIRI
party members took over the building during the Ashura religious
holidays in March, when the classes were suspended and the
building was empty. The issue sparked heated discussions that
devolved into council members' taking sides with Fadhila or
SCIRI, not just on the issue of the building, but on all local
government matters. As a result, the Dhi Qar provincial council
has not been able to deal effectively with governance issues and
has not been able to take steps to counter the growing security
concerns in the province.

Economics
--------------


8. (U) Reconstruction and development issues take precedence in
Dhi Qar, along with the security issues related to protecting
infrastructure and development projects. Marshland restoration,
in particular, is a topic of primary concern for many Dhi Qar
residents, as a good portion of the province is made up of
marshlands. Tar (used in making road asphalt),oil, and
electricity are main sources of income for Dhi Qar province.
Agricultural products include livestock and marshland crops such
as cane and papyrus. USAID has spent over $680,000 in
agricultural development programs in Dhi Qar, specifically
aiming to rejuvenate the critical date palm industry in the
area. Dhi Qar province has an estimated unemployment rate of 27
percent.


9. (SBU) Over $413 million in Iraqi Reconstruction and Relief
Funds (IRRF) were allocated for projects in Dhi Qar province.
Among the most notable of these projects are: a $48.8 million
state-of-the-art prison that will house 1,200 prisoners in
conditions that meet human rights expectations; a $9 million
maternity and children's hospital that will provide prenatal,
natal, and pediatric care to Nasiriyah's population; and a $244
million water treatment facility that will provide clean
drinking water and carry away waste water for the 250,000 homes
and businesses in Nasiriyah. Dhi Qar has more school renovation
projects than any other province in Iraq: 137 renovated schools
at a cost of $7 million. All of these projects are managed by
the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and are slated for completion
by 2007.


10. (SBU) The largest power plant in the south is located in
Nasiriyah. The surrounding provinces of Basrah, Muthanna, and
Maysan all receive a substantial amount of electricity from this
power plant, a major contributer to the national grid. Power
shortages still occur in Dhi Qar due to the need for repairs and
maintenance of the plant as well as high demand for power during
the hot summer months. Residents of Dhi Qar still enjoy,
however, a slightly higher number of hours of electricity than
most of the rest of Iraq.

Security
--------------


11. (C) Until recently, security in Dhi Qar province had not
been a significant concern. The October 15, 2005 constitutional
referendum took place in an atmosphere of calm with no
significant security incidents. The December 15, 2005
parliamentarian election saw slightly more activity. ALthough
intimidation campaigns in Basrah and Maysan provinces against
the 731 Coalition occurred during the lead-up to the election
(Ref A),Dhi Qar saw almost no intimidation of non-religious
parties. However, an Al Jazeera media report that made
allegedly derogatory remarks against Ayatollah Sistani and the
Shia faith sparked an attack on the ICP and the INA headquarters
in Nasiriyah on December 14, 2005 (Ref A).


12. (C) The approximately 2,000 Italian troops located in Camp
Mittica conduct security patrols and police training programs,
in cooperation with other coalition partners, and have
established excellent rapport with local government and
community leaders in Dhi Qar. There had been no significant

BASRAH 00000070 003.2 OF 004


attacks on coalition forces for over a year, until an April 27
IED attack killed one Romanian and three Italian soldiers. In
the month prior to this attack, the security situation in Dhi
Qar had degraded noticeably, with numerous IED finds and the
detention of several private security teams by
militia-infiltrated Iraqi police. For the first time in several
years, areas of Dhi Qar became "out of bounds," most notably the
rough town of Suk As Shuyk, located 20 miles southeast of
Nasiriyah, as well as city roads in Nasiriyah itself. The
problem of militias infiltrating the local police plagues Dhi
Qar as it does all the other southernmost provinces (Ref B).
Until recently, however, militias in Dhi Qar did not have a
pattern of directing lethal attacks against multi-national
forces.


13. (C) Security in the marshlands, with the difficulty of
navigation and the lack of necessary equipment and boats to
police the area, is also an issue of primary concern for Dhi
Qar's security forces. Dhi Qar province enjoys one of the
largest amounts of reconstruction and development investments by
international donors in the country, and securing reconstruction
sites challenges both donor organizations and Iraqi security
forces. Threats to reconstruction sites in Dhi Qar range from
personal security convoys en route to monitor sites being
attacked with rocks to IEDs specifically designed to disable
monitoring teams. These threats hamper progress on
reconstruction projects, and therefore on economic development,
in the province.

Shia Displacement to Dhi Qar
--------------


14. (C) Following the February 22 attack on the Golden Mosque
of Samarra, Dhi Qar province became the destination of Shia
families fleeing increased sectarian violence in Baghdad and
surrounding areas. Current Ministry of Displacement and
Migration (MODM) figures estimate that between 400 and 700
families have moved into Dhi Qar province, settling in Suk As
Shuyk and Ashatra. A camp has been set up for displaced
families in Al Fajr, about 100 miles north of Nasiriyah near the
provincial border with Wassit. (Note: These figures are from an
April 15 Dhi Qar Humanitarian Sector Working Group meeting. End
Note.) Many displaced families have moved in with relatives,
occupied abandoned buildings, or are living in informal camps in
rural areas. Major necessities are food items, as families are
not able to collect Public Distribution System (PDS) items
outside their normal places of residence. Displaced families
are receiving assistance in the form of tents, food, electric
generators and portable toilets from the Iraqi Red Crescent
Society (ICRS),Shia religious parties, and the Italian forces
at Camp Mittica. The displaced families in Dhi Qar are
straining the ability of local government to meet their needs
for public services, such as health, PDS, and education for
children, but so far there is no indication that the situation
is unmanageable. The local government views displaced families
as a short-term problem, since most of the families in Dhi Qar
have indicated that they do not wish to settle in the area and
seek to return to their own homes when the violence dies down.

Comment
--------------


15. (C) Long assumed to be on the path to economic development
and political stability, Dhi Qar province has demonstrated that
underlying tensions within the Shia coalition parties and
militia infiltration into the police have the potential to
provoke a crisis on short notice. In the space of two months,
the province has gone from being a place where security patrols
and reconstruction monitoring teams could travel with relative
ease, to a place where most of Nasiriyah and its surrounding
area are out of bounds. In the same period of time, the
provincial council went from being one of the most diverse,
politically tolerant, and efficient, to one mired in political
infighting. Dhi Qar province is at a crossroads, and the next
few months will be critical in determining if its stakeholders
will be able to pull things back on track. End comment.

Bionotes on Key Individuals in Dhi Qar
-------------- --------------


16. (C) Governor Azeez Kahdum Alwan al-Ogheli - The governor
was elected on May 23, 2005. He is a SCIRI party member and a
former Badr colonel. He was not elected to the Dhi Qar
Provincial Council. He has a reputation as a charismatic leader
who maintains a political balance between Badr Organization and
the Jaysh Al Madi militia in Dhi Qar. He is open and positive
to working with multi-national forces. He attended Baghdad
University and graduated with a B.A. in Education in 1987. He
also attended military college and received an officer's degree
in 1982. During the Saddam regime, he fled to the northern

BASRAH 00000070 004.2 OF 004


region of Kurdistan, where he worked with Iraqi president Jalal
al-Talabani. He was present during the 1990 chemical attack on
Halabja and still suffers from a lung infection as a result.
Following the attack, he moved to the Koot marshes near Aumara
and Nasiriyah. From 1996 to 2000, he worked with the current
governor of Muthanna. In 2003, he moved to Baghdad and started
working as a teacher. He was born in 1954 and is married with
four children.


17. (C) Chief of Police General Abdul Hussein Hassan Thamir -
The CoP was elected on August 18, 2005 and is linked to the
Da'wa Party. He attended the Baghdad military college and
obtained the rank of colonel in the former Iraqi army. His
position and party affiliation enable the governor to maintain a
balance within Shia political parties for positions of power.
He is the former Chief of the IPS Operations Department.


18. (C) Provincial Council Chairman Ashan Talab Salah - He is a
Fadhila party member, although until 2005 he was a member of the
Da'wa party. He has an M.A. in Arabic and a degree in computer
technology. He has a background in press and media, and has
published several articles on current Iraqi politics. He speaks
some English. He has a reputation as a weak and "absentee"
leader who travels frequently, neglecting work at home.


19. (C) Chairman of the Reconstruction Committee Engineer
Thajeel Kareem Ubeed - A political independent, Engineer Thajeel
has been a member of the Dhi Qar Provincial Council and Chairman
of the Reconstruction Committee since May 2005. He is
politically engaged and vocal about the need for reconstruction
of Dhi Qar's infrastructure. He enjoys a close working
relationship with the Italians at Camp Mittica. He obtained a
B.S. in Civil Engineering from the former Soviet Union and a
M.S. in Civil Engineering from Denmark. He speaks English,
Danish, and Russian. He was born in March 1950 and is married
with five children.


20. (C) Former Governor Sheikh Sabri Hamid al Rumaidh - A
political independent, Sheikh Sabri leads one of the largest,
most well-known and influential tribes in Dhi Qar (the other
influential tribe is the Al Gazi tribe). Sheikh Sabri is still
politically active, although his support base is primarily
tribal. He is in opposition to the Jaysh Al Mahdi militia. His
father, Hamid Bader al Rumaidh, now deceased, was also a very
prominent tribal figure. During the first Gulf War, Sheikh
Sabri fled to Kuwait. He graduated from the Political Science
and Law college. He maintains open and friendly relations with
the multi-national forces.


21. (C) Sheikh Ali Mohammed Al Manshed al Gazi - Leader of the
Al Gazi tribe in Dhi Qar, which inhabits the area between
Nasiriyah and Batha and is located closest to most of the
multi-national forces' bases in Dhi Qar. Although not
politically successful in Nasiriyah, the tribe wields
considerable influence over the city council of Batha. Sheikh
Ali has maintained open and friendly relations with
multi-national forces since 2003. During the Saddam regime, he
was arrested and tortured and subsequently fled the country.
His brothers were active in fighting against Saddam. He
maintains many interests outside of Iraq: one of his brothers
works in the Iraqi Embassy in Cairo, and Sheikh Ali maintains
business interests in Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. He
speaks English well.


22. (C) Imam and Cleric Sayed Mohammed Bakr al Nasiri - As the
imam of the Al Beit Mosque and leader of the Da'wa party in Dhi
Qar, Sayed Mohammed is the most influential religious leader in
Nasiriyah. Because of his age, Mohammed Bakr is often
represented by his son, Sheikh Mohammed Mahdi Bakr al Nassiri.
In 1995, Mohammed Bakr sought political asylum in Great Britain.
He returned to Iraq in 2003. He was elected the leader of the
Jamaat Ulemma in 1982 in Iran, against Muhammed Bakr al-Hakim.
His rivalry with al-Hakim led Mohammed Bakr to leave SCIRI. He
maintains open and friendly relations with multi-national
forces. His brother is Abbas al-Nasiri, the Deputy Governor.
Mohammed Bakr controls a very large charitable foundation for
the poor.
GROSS