BASRAH GOVERNOR ON THE ROPES?

C O N F I D E N T I A L BASRAH 000058

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/18/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: BASRAH GOVERNOR ON THE ROPES?

REF: (A) BASRAH 53; (B) BASRAH 49; (C) BASRAH 55

CLASSIFIED BY: Ken Gross, Regional Coordinator, REO Basrah,
Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)




1. (C) Summary: In an April 17 meeting with the Regional
Coordinator (RC) for the Regional Embassy Office (REO) in
Basrah, Ministry of Defense advisor Majed al-Sari confirmed the
details of a plan (Ref A) to vote Governor Muhammad out of
office. Though there is no timetable for the vote, he expects
it to occur soon. Al-Sari is sanguine that the Basrah
Provincial Council (BPC) has the two-thirds majority needed to
replace the governor with Badr Organization's Hassan al-Rashid
and that the governor will not respond with widespread violence;
however, al-Sari believes that individual council members and
other supporters of the efforts to depose the governor could be
targeted for assassination. End Summary.


2. (C) The RC for the Basrah REO met on April 17 with Majed
al-Sari, the Ministry of Defense's Basrah-based advisor to
discuss the latest permutations in the rumored plan to oust
Basrah Governor Muhammad (see Ref A). Al-Sari confirmed the
plan detailed in Ref B for the Basrah Provincial Council (BPC)
to vote the governor out of office and replace him with Hassan
al-Rashid. Majed al-Sari is particularly well positioned to be
in the know of such efforts since he also has intelligence
responsibilities, is an adversary of the governor's and is close
friends with Sayid Yusif, a personal and political enemy of the
governor.


3. (C) Al-Sari began the conversation by saying that it was a
very dangerous period for him and Sayid Yusif. He said that
both of them are under threat by Governor Muhammad's "death
squad" commanded by the governor's brother, Ismail (see Refs B
and C). However, the plan to get rid of the governor is set. A
few mosques have called for a change in government, and
according to al-Sari, the BPC has the votes necessary to replace
the governor. It is now up to the BPC members to initiate the
vote. Al Sari confirmed that Sayid Yusif is a BPC member and
said "he has been drawing a salary since April 14." Comment:
The REO has not had confirmation that Sayid Yusif is officially
a BPC member. At last week's council meeting, the question was
discussed and then deferred. End Comment.


4. (C) The RC asked al-Sari whether the Fadillah militia or JAM
might instigate a violent reaction in response to a BPC vote
against the governor. Al-Sari said that there could be
assassination attempts directed at BPC members who vote against
the governor, but did not expect JAM to take to the streets in
his support. Based upon conversations with JAM leaders and
because of public antipathy towards the governor, al-Sari said
that JAM would remain neutral. Similarly, al-Sari believes that
there could be a split in Fadillah, with some members glad if
the governor and his brother, stains upon the party, were
removed from power.


5. (C) Al-Sari commented that Hassan al-Rashid, the putative
replacement for the governor (see Ref A),would be an
improvement. Al-Sari said that al-Rashid is smart, politically
savvy, possesses some morals and is easy to work with. He
added that the BPC boycott against the British and the Danes
would end with a change in government since that "had been a
condition in the agreements to replace Muhammad with al-Hassan."
And in a twist on the connection between al-Rashid, the Badr
Organization general secretary, and Iran, al-Sari opined that
Iran hoped that Governor Muhammad remained in office since he
has permitted Iranians to flow across the border from Iran.


6. (C) Comment: Majed al-Sari's confirmation of the plan
described by Sayid Ghali in Ref (A) is no surprise - al-Sari,
with his enmity towards the governor, would be knee-deep in any
plan or conspiracy to vote the governor out of office. He was
careful to emphasize that no actions would be taken that
contravene the law. The vote will take place whenever the
council members decide, and al-Sari's only concern was that
individual members' fears of retribution by the governor could
delay the action. Nonetheless, he expects the vote to take
place soon.

GROSS