DISPLACED PERSONS IN SOUTHERN IRAQ INCREASE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BASRAH 000051

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/9/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL PTER EAID KISL SMIG SOCI IZ
SUBJECT: DISPLACED PERSONS IN SOUTHERN IRAQ INCREASE

REF: A) HILLAH 45, B) HILLAH 56

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CLASSIFIED BY: Ken Gross, REGIONAL COORDINATOR, REO BASRAH,
DEPARTMENT OF STATE.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)




1. (C) Summary: Significant population displacement has taken
place throughout southern Iraq since the attack on the Samarra
mosque on February 22, both of Shia families moving into the
provinces of Basrah, Dhi Qar, Muthanna, and Maysan, and of Sunni
families leaving southern provinces. Precise numbers of Shia
families moving to the south are available from the Ministry of
Displacement and Migration (MoDM) and the International
Organization for Migration (IOM). Figures of Sunnis leaving the
south are available but less comprehensive; anecdotal reporting
suggests that sizeable Sunni and Christian populations are
leaving the southern provinces. Displacement in the south is
complicated by the presence of thousands of displaced families
from the draining of the marshes that took place in the 1990's.
Despite the challenges, local authorities and humanitarian
organizations are providing adequate services to the new
families seeking assistance in Basrah, and are even looking to
extend help to Najaf. Official denial of the emigration of
minorities from the south, however, is strong. We believe
further evacuation of a significant portion of Basrah's
estimated 400,000 minority population will take place this
summer when the academic year ends. End Summary.

Current and On-Going Displacement
--------------


2. (C) Significant population displacement has taken place
throughout southern Iraq since the attack on the Samarra mosque
on February 22, both of Shia families moving into the provinces
of Basrah, Dhi Qar, Muthanna, and Maysan, and of Sunni families
leaving the south. The IOM's April 4 "Displacement Due to
Recent Violence" report provides information collected from the
MoDM and other monitoring organizations about displacement in
the southern provinces. The MoDM and other organizations report
that the number of displaced families in Muthanna is 360 and the
number of displaced families in Maysan is 320 (Note: The IOM
estimates that each family has six members. End Note). In
Basrah and Dhi Qar provinces, however, there is a discrepancy
between the numbers of displaced families reported by the MoDM
and the other monitoring organizations. In Dhi Qar, the MoDM
provided the figure of 575 while the other organizations put the
number at 440. In Basrah, the MoDM reports that there are 250
displaced families while the other organizations put the number
at 71. (Comment: The IOM report notes that the displacement in
the south is "on-going" and can result in tabulation
discrepancies among organizations. A Red Crescent contact
remarked that displaced families register with any available
organization when seeking assistance, resulting in double
counting. Another REO contact suggested that the higher MoDM
figure may be a cumulative account of displaced families, while
the other organizations monitoring displacement have only been
doing so since February 22. End Comment.)


3. (SBU) Shia families moving into Basrah register with the
MoDM as coming from Baghdad, Anbar, and Salah Al Din provinces.
Those moving into Dhi Qar come from Baghdad, Anbar, Salah Al
Din, Babylon, Tameem, and Diyala. Those moving into Muthanna
and Maysan are arriving from the Baghdad neighborhoods of Abu
Greb, Aldora, and Mahmodiya.


4. (C) The IOM report includes April 2 figures from the MoDM
that 345 Sunni families displaced from Basrah registered with
the MoDM in Anbar province, in the cities of Ramadi, Habaniya,
Khaldiya, Heet, Kubaesa, Hadetha, Ana, Rawa, Faluja, Karma, and
Amiriya. (Note: Of the 345 Sunni families registering in
Anbar, 192 of them registered in Faluja. End Note.) In
addition, seven Sunni families originally from Maysan registered
in Ana in Anbar, and eight Sunni families originally from Dhi
Qar have registered in Ramadi and Heet. Anecdotal reporting
corroborates the displacement of Sunni families from Basrah and
other southern provinces, and the number of Sunni families
displaced from the south is likely to grow as reports come in
from other provinces.


5. (C) Despite growing evidence of significant Sunni
displacement from Basrah province, local officials in Basrah
deny that such displacement is occurring. In an April 6
Humanitarian Sector Working Group meeting in Basrah organized by
the UN representative in Basrah, Basrah Provincial Council (BPC)
Member and Chair of the Humanitarian Committee Seyid Hasanein Al
Safi, a Shia imam, estimated that only about five Sunni families
had left Basrah since February 22 because of sectarian violence.
Sunni contacts, however, report that "thousands" are leaving
Basrah. Increased targeting of Sunnis and Christians in Basrah
for threats, murders, and kidnappings will be discussed in

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septel.


6. (U) Local press coverage of displaced Shia families entering
the south is increasing as the numbers of the displaced grow.
"Al Sabah" on-line news (April 4) reported that 150 families
moved into Dhi Qar near Nassiriyah from Baghdad and were living
in mosques and schools. "Al Manarah" news (April 2) reported
that 70 families have registered with the Basrah Immigration
Office and that the number is increasing.

Local Support for Displaced Families Strong
-------------- --------------


7. (C) Displaced families have been receiving support from the
BPC, Iraqi Red Crescent, World Health Organization (WHO),World
Food Program (WFP),and the MoDM, among others. Other
assistance organizations, such as USAID, have been providing
consistent help to Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) in Iraq
for more than a decade. (Note: The Office of Foreign Disaster
Assistance has recently supported IDPs in Maysan province with
$2.9 million in water and sanitation programs, as well as
providing emergency support to this winter's flood victims in
Safwan. End Note.) The system set in place for providing
support to the displaced is well structured and operating
smoothly. The BPC functions as the coordinator of the other
assistance organizations. The Red Crescent and WFP provide
food, housing, school uniforms and supplies, and register
families for assistance. The WHO visits displaced families in
order to vaccinate children and spray the areas against
mosquitoes. The MoDM assists families in transferring Public
Distribution System ration cards from one province to another.
Representatives from the above organizations agreed during the
April 6 Humanitarian SWG meeting that the establishment of camps
for displaced families is an undesirable solution to the current
situation. Camps would attract more families than could be
managed and would be difficult to close, in addition to
requiring substantial security and maintenance investments.


8. (C) Assistance organizations identified property claims
disputes as a potential future complication during the April 6
meeting. Since many families left their homes under emergency
conditions, they did not bring with them identification
documents or legal deeds and titles to property in their
provinces of origin. Abandoned residences in other provinces
are now suspected of being inhabited by squatters, and property
claims disputes will be a problem when currently displaced
families attempt to return to their homes and reclaim their
property.


9. (C) Assistance organizations present at the April 6 meeting
indicated that they planned to provide as much assistance as
possible to Najaf province. All agreed that the situation in
Najaf was much worse than in Basrah (as per reftels A and B). A
meeting is planned to take place in Basrah on April 10 with
representatives from Najaf to organize additional assistance.

Previous Marshland Displacement
--------------


10. (C) All four southern provinces were affected by internal
displacement during the 1990s due to Saddam's policy of draining
the marshes. The IOM reports that about 17,000 families were
displaced throughout the four provinces as a result of this
policy. Most of these families left the marshes to resettle in
urban areas. Since 2003, and with the partial rehabilitation of
the marshes, some of these families have returned to the
marshes. However, a significant number of the families indicate
that they desire to remain in their new location rather than
return to a sharecropping existence in the marshes.


11. (C) Marshland displacement, unlike the current displacement
due to violence, took place for the most part within provinces.
Rather than moving from one province to another, marsh Arabs
moved from the marshlands to a nearby town within the same
province. A significant number of marsh Arabs moved into the
towns of Basrah, Nassiriyah, and Amarah.


12. (C) The same organizations providing services and assistance
to the displaced marsh Arabs of the 1990s are now tasked with
providing assistance to growing numbers of displaced families
from other provinces due to sectarian violence since February

22. One of the reasons why the assistance currently being
provided to displaced families in the southern provinces is so
well run may be because these organizations are well-established
in the area and already have a lot of practice. Long-term
assistance to resettle marsh Arabs in the current places of
residences has been identified as a significant need by these
organizations, while the current displacement due to sectarian
violence is being treated as a short-term problem.

Comment

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--------------


13. (C) It is unclear if the current displacement in the
southern provinces due to sectarian violence will be a long- or
a short-term problem. Sunni and Christian contacts report to us
that many of them plan to wait to depart Basrah until the end of
the school year in order not to disrupt their children's
education. Other minority contacts report that they are
attempting to sell their houses and property before moving away.
They list northern Iraq, Baghdad, Jordan, and Syria as
destinations. We believe that the minority families who have
already left Basrah fled quickly because they faced immediate
danger and direct threats, and were living in the most volatile
neighborhoods and areas of Basrah. Those who plan to leave in
the summer, after methodically withdrawing their children from
school and selling off property, are those who do not face
direct threats and feel safe for the moment, but who are
unwilling to risk living in Basrah much longer because of the
rising sectarian violence. This amount of planning and
forethought going into leaving Basrah indicates that many
minorities do not intend to return to the area anytime soon.
GROSS