BASRAH GOVERNOR ORGANIZES DEMONSTRATION AGAINST THE BRITISH

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BASRAH 000013

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 1/30/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER IZ
SUBJECT: BASRAH GOVERNOR ORGANIZES DEMONSTRATION AGAINST THE BRITISH
- HUNDREDS, NOT THOUSANDS SHOW UP AND IT IS PEACEFUL, NOT VIOLENT

REF: (A) BASRAH 0010 (B) BASRAH 0012

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CLASSIFIED BY: Mark Marrano, Deputy Regional Coordinator, Basrah
Regional Embassy Office, Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)





1. (S/NF) Summary: Basrah Governor Mohammed has increased his
rhetoric against the British for their arrest operations,
attempting to incite anti-British sentiment and exhorting the
local population to stage a large demonstration at the British
Consulate. However, the Governor's anger at the British for
arresting Iraqi police officers widely known in the community
for their criminal behavior, and with links to him, continues to
isolate the governor politically on the Provincial Council (See
ref A.) A series of IED attacks in which Iraqi children were
injured and killed has added to local frustration and anger with
the escalating violence. In addition, these attacks were rumored
to be the work of supporters of the men who were arrested. End
Summary.


2. (S/NF) On January 25, an IED exploded as a British military
convoy passed by a local school. The force of the blast smashed
through the outer wall of the school courtyard seriously
injuring 22 young Iraqi students. In the late morning of January
27, a bomb exploded in a market near the Al Qaballah district in
Basra. The blast killed one eight-year-old girl and wounded two
small boys. Witnesses have claimed seeing a man in an Iraqi
police uniform place a bag on the ground in the market, and
leave the scene in a police car. The bag blew up minutes later.
The Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) cleared two other devices
targeting Iraqi civilians the same day. One was placed near a
mosque and the other in a popular shopping district. It was
rumored the attacks were carried out by supporters of Major
Jassim and the other detainees in British custody. (Note:
Informed analysis supports this widely held belief. End note.)
This has further eroded the Governor's public support.


3. (S/NF) The Governor's rhetoric has continued to be more and
more inflammatory. Yesterday Al Iraqiya television and Al
Basrah radio reported on a conversation with the Governor, where
he stated he would not be responsible for any violence
perpetrated against the British after the demonstration of
January 29. He also called for the immediate withdrawal of the
British and the Americans from Basrah. However, private
conversations that the British Consul General (CG) had with some
Provincial Council (PC) members showed a continuing lack of
support for the Governor's position.


4. (S/NF) On the morning of January 29, about 250-300 people
protested in front of the main gate of the British compound -
far below the 2,000 the Governor claimed he would muster. REO
Basrah received one report that policemen on duty at the Shaibah
police station were ordered to attend the protest or be
considered absent from duty. The demonstration was peaceful
with many of the protesters carrying banners and signs calling
for the release of the detainees. A nine-person delegation of
tribal leaders, PC members and the leader of the Office of
Muqtada al Sadr (OMS) Basrah entered the compound to meet with
the British Consul General. (Note: Governor Mohammed refused to
enter, remaining outside the gate with the demonstrators. End
note.) In a subsequent conversation with the REO Deputy
Regional Coordinator (DRC),the British CG stated that after
demanding that the detainees be released, he was given a letter
from the group explaining their position. (Note: The letter was
not from the PC, but signed only by the delegates attending. End
note.) The leader of the OMS then stated that if the detainees
were not released there would be violence. The CG sensed that
this blunt outburst caused embarrassment among the other members
of the delegation.


5. (S/NF) The CG mentioned that there appears to be an attempt
at an alliance between the Iraqi National Accord and the
Fadheela Party. He believes they may intend to remove the
Governor before the provincial elections. In fact, the CG was
asked about the position of the British government if the
Governor were removed from office. The CG responded with the
British position of non-interference in the internal affairs and
legal processes of Iraq.


6. (S/NF) Comment: The next several days are crucial. Clearly
Governor Mohammed is becoming more and more isolated,
politically and in the public eye. His attempt to impose a
long-term boycott of British forces failed.(See ref A.) His
efforts to get local tribes involved were effectively countered
by UK outreach to the tribal sheiks (See ref B.) Public anger
and frustration over the recent IED attacks that injured and
killed Iraqi civilians and the less-than expected turnout for

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the demonstration both point to a local population that may
finally be fed up with their Governor. Sensing this, the PC may
remove him from office in the near future. End Comment.
MARRANO