MAS/CONVERGENCE WIN CATALAN REGIONAL ELECTIONS; PARTIES RACE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BARCELONA 000166

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

EUR/WE FOR G. CLEMENTS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV SP
SUBJECT: MAS/CONVERGENCE WIN CATALAN REGIONAL ELECTIONS; PARTIES RACE
TO FORM NEXT REGIONAL GOVERNMENT

REF: BARCELONA 162

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1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Artur Mas led the Convergence and Union (CiU)
coalition to victory November 1 in regional autonomous
elections, but without enough seats to form the next government
alone. The Socialist Party of Catalunya (PSC) came in a distant
second followed by the Catalan Leftist Party (ERC),the Popular
Party of Catalunya (PP),and a coalition of progressive parties.
The race is now on to see if Mas can successfully form the next
government, or if the Socialist-led three party (Tripartite)
coalition can rally back into power. Nationally, the results of
these elections will be interpreted as confirmation of the
Catalan desire for greater autonomy and as pressure on the
Zapatero government to fully implement the new Catalan autonomy
statute (Estatut). Locally, this will be seen as a cold shower
for the Socialist (the big losers),but not the clear message
against the Tripartite Mas wanted. Since PM Zapatero is known
to have good relations with CiU heavyweights, a CiU-PSC is far
from out of the question. The picture will remain fuzzy as the
two main parties stake their claim for control of the
Parliament. End Summary.

Winners and Losers~


2. (SBU) Artur Mas and the Convergence and Union (CiU)
coalition were the clear winners, and the Jose Mantilla-led
Socialist Party of Catalunya (PSC) the clear losers according to
the results of the November 1 Catalunya regional elections.
With all the votes counted, the 135-seat Parliament will look
this way:

- Convergence and Union (CiU) - 31.5 percent/48 seats
- Socialist Party of Catalunya (PSC) - 26.8 percent/37seats
- Catalan Leftist Party (ERC) - 14.1 percent/21 seats
- Popular Party (PP) - 10.6 percent/14 seats
- Green Initiative for Catalunya-United Left and Alternative
(ICV-EUiA) - 9.6 percent/12 seats
- Citizens Party (C) - 3 percent/3 seats

The CiU gained two more seats since the 2003 elections while the
PSC dropped five seats; the ERC lost two seats; and as for the
small parties, the PP lost one seat, ICV-EUiA gained three
seats, and the upstart, anti-nationalist Citizens party gained
three seats. The Citizens' victory took pundits by surprise.
The result reveals the dissatisfaction of a small, but growing,
sector of Catalans whose roots lie outside the region, and thus,
put the Spanish language on the same level as Catalan.

~and Questions


3. (SBU) As expected, the results answered some questions, but
left several important ones unanswered for the time being. The
most critical one at the moment is who will be elected president
of the region after the new Parliament convenes on the last week
of November or the first week of December. Mas finds himself in
the same situation he was in after the 2003 vote where he won
the most seats, but was nevertheless outmaneuvered for control
of the Parliament and the presidency by the PSC. In this
election, however, Mas is in a better position not only because
he won handily, but because Montilla's loss was so decisive
(Note: The Socialists are now 11 seats back, in 2003 they were
only four seats behind. End Note.) Nevertheless, his chances
of cobbling together the 68 votes necessary to form a government
remain unclear. The PP, CiU's most obvious ally, did not
receive enough votes for the two parties to form a government
together (never mind that Mas declared prior to the elections
that his party would not form a pact with the PP).


4. (SBU) The PSC, for its part, has much soul searching to do.
On the one hand, the people of Catalunya fairly clearly
expressed displeasure with how it has governed over the past
three years (with a disjointed coalition and too many diverging
interests). Moreover, former Trade and Industry Minister
Montilla's campaign never really caught fire here, despite PM
Zapatero's five visits to the region to support his campaign.
Even Montilla's ability to lead the PSC in the Parliament might
be called into question. On the other hand, the PSC's natural
allies and former coalition partners, the ERC and the ICV-EUiA,
both did well enough to keep their hopes alive and possibly
return all three to power. Again, how well Montilla can
negotiate a deal, perhaps even a deal where one of the other
partners gains the presidency, will be key.

Timelines


5. (U) The final results should be certified in about two weeks
- only an estimated 300,00 absentee ballots remain to be
counted. The new Parliament will likely be seated either
November 21 or November 26 after the board of the Parliament is

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elected. Voting for the next President of the Generalitat will
begin on the day the Parliament is seated. The outgoing
President of the Parliament will propose a candidate to succeed
him. There is a maximum ten day period for the candidate
selected by the President to confirm support for his candidacy.
The candidate to the presidency will then present an outline of
his program to the Parliament. If the candidate wins a majority
of the votes in Parliament he is elected President. If he does
not win that vote he is presented again forty-eight hours later,
and only needs a plurality to be elected. The President will
then present his cabinet members. We expect to have a new
government in place by December 1 if negotiations and general
agreement are reached.


6. (SBU) Comment: Now comes the hard part for all concerned.
Mas, whose hard nosed pre-election tactics made him appear
strong, failed to win the outright majority he sought. He has
now backed himself into a corner having alienated those who
might have joined him in a coalition. How he gets out of that
corner will be interesting to see. So far, Montilla has taken a
wait and see approach, and is clearly not ruling out a return to
a Tripartite government, which he hopes he can run better than
the last one. The other parties, particularly the ERC, will see
what they are offered for their services. There are also rumors
that PM Zapatero's influence might be in play before all is said
and done - he is said to have very good relations with both Mas
and the CiU's man in Madrid Antonio Duran Lleda. If that is the
case, a CiU-PSC could square this circle quite nicely. End
Comment.
ROBINSON