Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BANJUL574
2006-09-16 10:33:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Banjul
Cable title:  

THE GAMBIA: UPDATE ON TIES WITH SENEGAL

Tags:  PREL PGOV PREF MOPS PINS SG GA 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO5165
RR RUEHPA
DE RUEHJL #0574/01 2591033
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 161033Z SEP 06
FM AMEMBASSY BANJUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6967
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANJUL 000574 

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DAKAR PLS PASS DAO, ODC,AND RAO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PREF MOPS PINS SG GA
SUBJECT: THE GAMBIA: UPDATE ON TIES WITH SENEGAL

REF: A. DAKAR 1789


B. BANJUL 451

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOSEPH STAFFORD, REASON 1.4 (B AND D)

SUMMARY
--------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANJUL 000574

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SIPDIS

DAKAR PLS PASS DAO, ODC,AND RAO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PREF MOPS PINS SG GA
SUBJECT: THE GAMBIA: UPDATE ON TIES WITH SENEGAL

REF: A. DAKAR 1789


B. BANJUL 451

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOSEPH STAFFORD, REASON 1.4 (B AND D)

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) In September 15 discussion, Senegalese Ambassador Fall
cited the improved tenor in Senegalese/Gambian ties in recent
months, expressed certainty that Gambian President Jammeh
would win re-election September 22 by a comfortable margin,
and knocked down rumors of close ties between Senegalese
President Wade and Gambian oppositionists. Fall turned
downbeat in discussing the Casamance, asserting that, inter
alia, the GOTG was permitting dissident MFDC figure Sadio and
his forces to move freely in The Gambia. Fall mentioned his
consultations with the GOTG on the influx of refugees here
resulting from fighting in the Casamance. He thought that the
"next few months" would witness progress on two currently
stalled Senegalese/Gambian projects -- construction of the
Gambia River bridge and establishment of the Joint Permanent
Secretariat. The improved tenor in bilateral ties may prove

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to be short-lived in view of the GOTG's reported
mischief-making in the Casamance. END SUMMARY.

IMPROVED TENOR IN BILATERAL TIES
--------------


2. (C) In September 15 conversation with Ambassador,
Senegalese Ambassador Mamadou Fall said the improved tenor in
Senegalese/Gambian ties in recent months was continuing (Refs
A and B). He asserted that both Senegalese President Wade and
Gambian counterpart Jammeh were careful to keep thorny issues
submerged -- e.g., presence of radical Gambian dissidents in
Senegal and Gambian meddling in the Casamance. Fall
expressed satisfaction that, in the three months since taking
up his posting to Banjul, he had established good contacts
among senior GOTG officials.

GAMBIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
--------------


3. (C) Asked for his take on the upcoming Presidential
election here September 22, Fall expressed certainty that

Jammeh would win re-election by a comfortable margin, citing
divisions within the opposition as a key factor. (NOTE: We
concur in Fall's assessment, as do our contacts generally.
END NOTE) Fall agreed that while Jammeh's Jolla tribe was
small, he could count on its total support in the ballotting.
Fall thought there was some validity to opposition
allegations that the governing APRC party had fraudulently
arranged for Senegalese -- including Jollas in the Casamance
-- to be registered as Gambian voters so as to pad the vote
for Jammeh. Fall added, however, that he had no idea how
many Senegalese had been fraudently issued voter cards and
that, in any event, Jammeh's greater support among Gambian
voters relative to the opposition candidates was such that he
was assured victory regardless of the irregularities in the
voter registration process. (COMMENT: The number of
fraudulent voters registered in recent months is estimated in
the tens of thousands; their impact on the election's outcome
remains to be seen. END COMMENT)

WADE'S RUMORED TIES TO GAMBIAN OPPOSITIONISTS
-------------- -


4. (C) Ambassador noted rumors that Senegalese President
Wade retained close ties with Gambian opposition politicians,
e.g., former parliamentarian and current Vice Presidential
candidate Hamat Bah. Fall replied that President Jammeh
himself had raised the matter with him, but that he (Fall)
had flatly denied any such contacts. (NOTE: Other sources
insist that Wade, while in the opposition, became acquainted
with Bah and that the pair remain in contact. END NOTE)

CASAMANCE
--------------


5. (C) Fall registered concern over the GOTG's posture amidst
the recent resurgence of violence in the Casamance, sparked
by dissident MFDC leader Salif Sadio. Fall claimed that the
GOTG was permitting Sadio and his forces to move freely on
Gambian territory, instead of working with the GOS to ferret
out and capture them. Fall also lamented the GOTG's ongoing
detention of MFDC military leader Magne Dieme, portraying him
as committed to the Casamance peace process and supportive of
GOS efforts against Sadio's forces. Fall said the GOTG had
so far rebuffed, for unknown reasons, GOS requests to release
Dieme. Fall confided that Dakar wanted to ratchet up the
pressure on Banjul for greater cooperation in ending the

BANJUL 00000574 002 OF 002


Casamance violence and capturing Sadio, but that he (Fall)
had convinced the GOS leadership to hold off on any such move
until after the Presidential contest here, given Jammeh's
total focus at present on his re-election. (NOTE: During TDY
RSO's September 15 visit to Gambian border areas near the
Casamance, residents told him that MFDC fighters were present
in these areas, but did not indicate whether they were
aligned with Sadio. END NOTE)


6. (C) In response to query, Fall said he suspected, but
could not confirm, that Sadio's forces were being supplied
with weapons from The Gambia; he did not know whether the
GOTG itself was involved in any such weapons flow. (NOTE: A
reliable journalistic source claimed to us that the GOTG is
"likely" providing weapons to Sadio's forces. END NOTE)


7. (C) Fall indicated that he was in touch with senior GOTG
officials regarding the influx of refugees into The Gambia
resulting from the recent clashes in the Casamance between
GOS forces and Sadio's fighters. He recounted that, at a
September 8 meeting, the Gambian Interior Minister estimated
that due to the clashes, the Casamance refugee community in
The Gambia had risen to 5,300. (NOTE: The GOTG's estimate is
likely based on that of UNHCR, whose current figure is 5,000.
END NOTE)

BRIDGE PROJECT, PERMANENT SECRETARIAT
--------------


8. (C) Ambassador asked about the status of two key bilateral
projects -- construction of a bridge across the Gambia river
that would facilitate travel between Northern Senegal and the
Casamance region and restoration of the Joint Permanent
Secretariat to manage bilateral issues. (NOTE: The Joint

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Permanent Secretariat existed prior to the two countries'
experiment with confederation in the 1980's. END NOTE) Fall
responded that progress on both dossiers had come to a halt
following the failed coup plot here in March, but that the
two sides remained keen to implement them. He thought that
"the next few months" would witness a joint
Senegalese/Gambian approach to potential donors for support
on the bridge project and the establishment of the Joint
Permanent Secretariat -- headed by a Senegalese and located
in Banjul.

COMMENT
--------------


9. (C) The improved tenor of Senegalese/Gambian ties may
prove to be short-lived, in view of Fall's claims -- which we
regard as credible -- of the GOTG's mischief-making in the
Casamance. Jammeh may well view such mischief-making as
retaliation for Dakar's suspected complicity in the coup plot
thwarted here in March and its suspected harboring of the
plot's ringleader, former Chief of Defense Staff Col Ndure
Cham. Given the prospect of heightened bilateral strains over
the Casamance, Fall's prediction of early movement on the
Gambia River bridge project and the Joint Permanent
Secretariat seems overly optimistic. END COMMENT.

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STAFFORD