GAMBIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION -- CANDIDATE PROFILES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANJUL 000548

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/05/2016
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL PHUM GA
SUBJECT: GAMBIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION -- CANDIDATE PROFILES

REF: A. BANJUL 536

B. BANJUL 529 AND PREVIOUS

C. BANJUL 488

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Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES C.P. ALSUP, REASON 1.4 (b and d)


1. (U) The Gambian Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) has
accepted the nominations of three candidates to contest the
September 22 Gambian presidential election. As expected the
ruling Alliance for Patriotic Reorientation and Construction
(APRC) has nominated incumbent president Yahya Jammeh to
stand as its candidate. Prominent attorney Ousainou Darboe
is the nominee of the alliance between the United Democratic
Party (UDP) and the National Reconciliation Party (NRP).
National Assembly Member Halifa Sallah will run as the
candidate of the National Alliance for Democracy and
Development (NADD). The three candidates filed their
nominations on August 28 (Ref A) before the Chairman of the
IEC amid great fanfare and media coverage. Many thousands of
the candidates' supporters crowded the streets around the IEC
office in impromptu rallies that included drumming and
dancing. A fourth candidate, Henry Gomez of the Gambia Party
for Democracy and Progress (GPDP),also sought to run in the
presidential race, but his candidacy was rejected because he
did not meet the residency requirements. Gomez and his party
have since aligned themselves with Darboe's UDP/NRP alliance.
Following are profiles of each of the candidates.

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THE MERCURIAL INCUMBENT, PRESIDENT YAHYA JAMMEH
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2. (U) The front-runner in the race is incumbent President
Dr. Alhaji Yahya A.J.J. Jammeh, who became head of state in
July 1994 when he led a military coup that toppled the
civilian government headed by Sir Dawda Jawara who had ruled
the Gambia since its independence in 1965. After a two-year
transition period, Jammeh, who is a Jola, the smallest ethnic
group in the country, and his colleagues retired from the
army and set up the APRC to contest the 1996 presidential
election which he won amid widespread allegations of
irregularities and fraud. In 2001, he was re-elected
President in a contest deemed by the international community
to be "free and fair, with some shortcomings." Jammeh's
supporters point to improvements in education, healthcare,
roads, and a relatively good airport as evidence of the
progress that President Jammeh has fostered in The Gambia
compared to the Jawara regime. His detractors point to human
rights abuses and the wealth that President Jammeh has
amassed while the Gambian people continue to experience
persistent problems with electricity and water supply.


3. (C) President Jammeh, now 41, a former army lieutenant
with little formal education, has become one of the
wealthiest men in The Gambia. There is widespread belief
that he came by this wealth by pilfering the public coffers.
His administration is rife with corruption and a climate of
cronyism. His personality is mercurial -- he can be
charming, as he is on the campaign trail, but he can also be
ruthless and spiteful, arresting critics from the media and
opposition politicians, and firing Ministers and other civil
servants for questioning or embarrassing him. He is prone
to hyperbole and bravado in his speeches and often makes
outlandish remarks such as saying that some coup d'etats are
good and that the Gambian people will have to wait at least
30 years before he turns over power.


4. (C) He is eager to be perceived as an African statesman,
but pursues that goal through pomp, pageantry and excess,
rather than through substantive achievements. He has no
appreciation of the concept of separation of powers and
wields his power relentlessly over most branches and agencies
of the Gambian government. He has no qualms about asking
civil servants to join the APRC and to campaign for him. He
has little regard for the Gambian constitution except when he
wants to change it to suit his needs. His unilateral removal
of the IEC Chairman last month (Ref C) was contrary to the
constitution and destroyed any semblance that the IEC is
truly "Independent."


5. (C) Under President Jammeh the government of The Gambia
has been a strong defender of religious freedom and moderate
Islam, condemning Muslim extremists and terrorism and holding
itself out as model for the world on religious tolerance.
The GOTG has been very cooperative with the U.S. on
counterterrorism. The GOTG's human rights record is mixed,
however. Since the March 2006 coup attempt, the Gambia's
human rights record has deteriorated signficantly.
Journalists have been arrested and tortured and media outlets
have been shuttered. Alleged coup plotters have disappeared.
Many people have been arrested and held for weeks beyond the
statutory 72-hour limit that a person can be held without

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charges.


6. (C) President Jammeh is fickle with his loyalties,
changing them depending on who is providing the most
assistance. He has a penchant for states that provide aid
money with few or no strings attached. Taiwan has been
extremely generous to The Gambia and The Gambia has in turn
been a staunch proponent for recognition of Taiwan in
international organizations including the UN and the World
Health Organization. The U.S., on the other hand, is in
Jammeh's bad graces now because of the suspension of the
Gambia's MCA eligibility. That suspension seems to have
pushed Jammeh towards countries who are not friends of the
U.S., e.g. Iran (Ref B) and Venezuela.


7. (C) COMMENT. President Jammeh wants to win the September
election by a wide margin -- he has said he wants more than
70 percent of the vote so that he can say he won with a
larger majority than any other elected African leader and so
that no one can question that he has a clear mandate from the
people. Accordingly, we expect him to use every means at his
disposal as the incumbent to ensure a big win. On September
3, on the third day of his "Dialogue with the People tour" of
the nation, he warned that his government will only develop
areas that vote for him in the upcoming election. END
COMMENT.

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THE PERENNIAL CANDIDATE, LAWYER OUSAINOU DARBOE
-------------- --


7. (U) The second most well-known candidate is 56-year old
lawyer Ousainou Darboe, the candidate of the UDP/NRP
alliance. Darboe's running mate is Hamat Bah, the vocal
former National Assembly Member and leader of the NRP. This
will be Darboe's third attempt at the presidency. In the two
previous contests (1996 and 2001),he led a group of
opposition parties in a coalition which later accused the
government of electoral fraud. The soft-spoken "Lawyer
Darboe," as he is popularly called, comes from the largest
ethnic group in The Gambia, the Mandinkas. Darboe receives
financial support for his campaign from some local businesses
as well as from Gambians living overseas.


8. (C) Darboe seems to be relying on tribal loyalties to
secure victory at the polls on September 22. His alliance
with Hamat Bah appears to be calculated to win the votes of
Bah's tribal group, the Fulas, the second largest in the
country. Darboe and Bah were members of NADD but withdrew
from NADD when the alliance failed to agree on a single
candidate to challenge President Jammeh. Darboe has stated
that it his destiny to become President and believes that
Jammeh's poor governance and human rights record will
motivate Gambians to vote en masse for anyone other than the
incumbent.


9. (C) COMMENT. It is unclear how a Darboe administration
would differ from the present administration, except perhaps
the likely cessation of blatant human rights abuses. Darboe
has not, in this contest, or any previous contests, presented
a clear outline of his vision for progress and development in
the country. He sometimes gives the impression that he wants
the presidency not for what he can do for The Gambia but for
what being president of The Gambia can do for him. While he
has not hesitated to come to the Embassy to complain about
President Jammeh or the APRC, it is not clear whether he
would be a reliable ally for the U.S. END COMMENT.

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THE INTELLECTUAL CANDIDATE, PARLIAMENTARIAN HALIFA SALLAH
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10. (U) U.S.-trained sociologist and National Assembly Member
Halifa Sallah, aged 53, is the candidate for the three
remaining parties that comprise the NADD alliance. Sallah is
also a member of the Pan-African parliament. He is an astute
intellectual and one of the country's most vocal critics of
the current administration. He is known and respected
throughout the country and abroad for his constant
admonishment of President Jammeh's government for its failure
to adhere to the country's constitution and the principles of
democracy. Sallah receives considerable financial support
from Gambians living in the U.S. and Europe.


11. (U) Sallah was arrested in November 2005 along with two
other members of the NADD Executive Committee based on
accusations by President Jammeh that the trio was trying to
incite trouble between The Gambia and its larger and more
powerful neighbor, Senegal. The verbal accusations, later
transformed into formal charges of sedition, were eventually
dropped following the intervention of President Obasanjo of
Nigeria.

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12. (C) As editor of his party's newspaper, Foroyaa
(Freedom),Sallah has a captive platform for delivering his
message of development and growth through education and
anti-corruption efforts. But Sallah's intellectualism,
apparent in everything that Sallah says or writes, may be his
downfall. He talks over the heads of ordinary Gambians,
often using complex evaluations and explanations to make even
the most mundane point. Even other intellectuals sometimes
find it difficult to follow his arguments. As a result,
NADD's support base is mainly limited to the more affluent,
educated Gambians and to the urban areas. To expand its
base, NADD has indicated that it plans to make a serious
effort to target younger Gambian voters.


13. (C) COMMENT. A win by Halifa Sallah would almost
certainly usher in a new era in Gambian government and
politics. Sallah's ideas are consistent with democratic
principles and we would expect a Sallah administration to be
a reliable friend of the U.S. END COMMENT.
ALSUP