DEMOCRAT PARTY LEADERS DISCUSS POLITICAL SITUATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 000965

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/15/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON TH
SUBJECT: DEMOCRAT PARTY LEADERS DISCUSS POLITICAL SITUATION

REF: A. BANGKOK 00636 (CORRUPTION ISSUES IN THE HEADLINES)

B. BANGKOK 0538 (THAILAND'S DEAL OF THE CENTURY)

C. 05 BANGKOK 07732 (THAKSIN ALLY PAINTS GLOOMY
PICTURE OF PM'S STANDING

D. 05 BANGKOK 04367 (PARLIAMENT AMENDS CONSTITUTION
CRIMINAL INVESTIGATION OF BAGGAGE
SCANNER DEAL LAUNCHED

Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce reason 1.4 (b) (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY:Ambassador Boyce called on former Prime
Minister Chuan Leekpai, a senior figure in the Democrat
Party, on February 15. Chuan believed that opposition to PM
Thaksin was growing as a result of the scandal around the
sale of Shin Corp (ref A,B). Chuan said that Thaksin's
efforts to undermine democratic institutions over the past
five years was a more serious offense, but did not have the
power to mobilize opposition to the PM the way the Shin Corp
scandal did. Although the Democrat Party had not come out in
open support of anti-Thaksin agitator Sondhi Limthongkul,
Chuan agreed with many of his statements. Other Democrat
Party representatives in the meeting commented on two
sensitive issues: the bribery case involving the CTX baggage
scanners (ref D) and the Free Trade Agreement (FTA)
negotiations. On CTX, they urged the US to provide the
information requested under the MLAT. On the FTA, they warned
that the US risked being dragged into the middle of the tense
political standoff between Thaksin and his opponents if the
FTA negotiations continued. End Summary.

Thaksin's Troubles
--------------


2. (C) Ambassador Boyce met on February 15 with former Prime
Minister Chuan Leekpai and other leading members of the
Democrat Party, the largest opposition party in Thailand.
Former Foreign Minister Surin Pitsuwan and MP Kiat
Sittheeamorn also participated in the discussion of the
current political situation in the country. Chuan said that
the public perception of the Prime Minister was changing due
to the scandal surrounding his sale of Shin Corp (ref A, B).
Thaksin had undermined all the country's democratic
institution for the past five years, but the public was not
really aware of these problems. The Shin Corp sale, in
contrast, was getting the public's attention.


3. (C) The Ambassador noted that the 1997 Constitution set
up a range of independent institutions to provide checks and
balances to the power of the government. Under Thaksin,
however, these institutions were not working. (Ref A). Chuan
noted that these institutions had been established when he
was Prime Minister and had functioned well when the Democrats
were in power. This showed that the problem was not with the
concept, but with the current government. He recounted a
recent report about the ruling party (Thai Rak Thai - TRT)
control of the Senate, which according to the Constitution is
supposed to be non-partisan. The TRT Senate "whip" was
asked, casually, how many Senators take money from TRT. The
whip answered just as casually that about 60 were on the TRT
payroll. This highlighted the way Thaksin and his party were
subverting the checks and balances of the system.


4. (C) The Ambassador asked how the situation could be
resolved. If Thaksin called a snap election, TRT would
simply win again. Chuan agreed that TRT was still strong,
but emphasized the importance of the increasing public
awareness of Thaksin's misdeeds. The Ambassador agreed that
there was a shift beginning in the some of the mass media.
For example, "Thai Rath", the largest circulation paper in
the country, had begun to publish some articles critical of
the government. MP Kiat commented that some of the
newspapers had begun to stray from the TRT line in part
because the public was demanding more news about these issues
and the papers had to respond. Chuan referred to the rise of
anti-Thaksin agitator, Sondhi Limthongkul. Chuan said that
the Democrat party had not come out in open support of Sondhi
because it would have undermined Sondhi to be too closely
connected to opposition politicians. Chuan expressed
agreement, however, with much of what Sondhi was saying. The
Ambassador noted that even a high-ranking associate of
Thaksin had said that all Sondhi's claims were true (ref C).
Chuan believed that Thaksin had dropped his lawsuits against
Sondhi in part because he did not want to have to face his
accuser in a trial and have to answer difficult questions.
Former Foreign Minister Surin pointed out the importance of
the next rally, scheduled for Sunday, February 26. He
indicated that the demonstration would not end on Sunday, but
would keep going, turning the pressure on the PM up yet
another notch.


VOA, CTX, FTA...
--------------


5. (C) Chuan put in a strong plea to keep VOA Thai language
service on the air, noting its importance as a source of
international news for Thai listeners. The group also noted
the upcoming celebration of the centennial of Democrat Party
founder Seni Pramoj (who also led the "Free Thai" opposition
to the collaboration of the Thai government with the Japanese
during World War II). The Democrats hoped for a statement in
the Congressional Record commemorating this anniversary. MP
Kiat recalled the CTX issue (ref D) and said that they were
awaiting a response to the Thai Attorney General's MLAT
request for further information. FM Surin expressed concern
that the US had not yet been forthcoming on the request for
more information, and emphasized that the US should share
their interest in countering any corrupt business practices.
We advised him that the Department of Justice was working on
a response.


6. (C) Finally, MP Kiat raised the issue of the ongoing Free
Trade Agreement negotiations. (Note: The Democrat Party does
not oppose an FTA in principle, but has repeatedly urged the
US not to continue the negotiations because Thaksin's
government is tainted by corruption and it is not carrying
out the negotiations in a transparent manner, among other
criticisms. Opponents of Thaksin have seized on the
shortcomings in the RTG's FTA negotiating procedures as
another blunt object with which to bludgeon the PM. End
note.) Kiat warned that the US was being dragged into an
internal Thai political controversy due to the timing of the
FTA talks, just as Singapore was being put into a difficult
situation due to the purchase of Shin Corp by a Singapore
company.

Comment
--------------


7. (C) The leadership of the Democrat Party are an
impressive group, with a good record of commitment to
democratic government. Their opposition to TRT and Thaksin
is not just partisan, but reflects a genuine concern about
the PM's autocratic rule and particularly his role in
undermining the fledgling democratic institutions that they
helped to foster during Chuan's term as PM. The Democrats
have remained in the background to a surprising extent as
civil society and the firebrand Sondhi have led the
opposition to the Prime Minister; they are clearly encouraged
by the rising tide of criticism of Thaksin. We believe they
may be rather too optimistic about the effect the Shin Corp
scandal will have on the PM. Although the deal has widened
the circle of Thaksin critics, it still has not become the
huge rallying point Sondhi and other had hoped for. But
further revelations about the controversial transaction could
change public perceptions. End Comment

BOYCE