SONDHI'S LAST STAND II - THE ALLIANCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 000922

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT PASS TO USTR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/15/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM TH
SUBJECT: SONDHI'S LAST STAND II - THE ALLIANCE

REF: BANGKOK 00829

Classified By: AMBASSADOR RALPH L. BOYCE FOR REASON 1.4 (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY. On February 11, 2006 the second major
anti-Thaksin rally in as many weeks drew a crowd
conservatively estimated by the media at over 50,000. Sondhi
Limthongkul broadened his movement to oust the Prime Minister
by bringing together students, academics, opposition
Senators, and groups opposed to the US-Thai FTA under the
newly formed People's Alliance for Democracy. Though the
police endured some efforts early in the day by demonstrators
to provoke a confrontation, the rally proceeded peacefully in
the Royal Plaza. The next protest is planned for February 26
in Sanaam Luang, near the Grand Palace and a historic and
popular site for large rallies. Thaksin's offer to hold a
national referendum on amending the Constitution was rejected
by academics and other Alliance members as a hollow delaying
tactic. END SUMMARY.

ANTI-THAKSIN ALLIANCE INVADES ROYAL PLAZA


2. (U) The People's Alliance for Democracy flexed its young
muscles on Saturday, defying municipal orders prohibiting
demonstrations at the Royal Plaza. Protesters began
organizing at the nearby UN Building early in the day. At
about 14:00hrs, a group of about 500 protesters marched
arm-in-arm to the Royal Plaza and confronted a line of police
in riot gear. After a brief negotiation, the police relented
and allowed the protesters to enter the plaza. By the end of
the evening, the crowd had swelled to near the size of last
week's rally. (NOTE: Media estimates of crowd size vary
widely, with most sources vastly underestimating numbers.
POLOFF who attended both rallies noted that the February 11
crowd appeared only slightly smaller at its high point than
the one the previous week. On February 11, however, there
were far fewer people coming and going during the afternoon,
making the total number of participants in the event lower.
End note.)


3. (U) At 16:00hrs Police Commissioner General Kowit Wattana
entered the plaza apparently to inform the organizers that
they could not use the sound system that was being set up.
Gen. Kowit was quickly surrounded by protesters (and
journalists) and decided to retreat and avoid further
provocation. The General was hounded out of the plaza by the
growing crowd who surrounded his waiting van and plastered it
with anti-Thaksin bumper stickers and flyers. Under clear
orders not to respond to the provocation, the police left the
interior of the plaza. About a half an hour later, two
police trucks entered the plaza with smiling female officers
handing out plastic cups of ice-cold water. The rest of the
evening went by without further incident.

ALLIANCE SEEKS BROAD APPEAL - SONDHI KEEPS CENTER STAGE


4. (U) The Alliance was formed to help alter the growing
protest movement from a Sondhi vs Thaksin spectacle into a
coalition of anti-Thaksin organizations demanding the Prime
Minister's resignation. In the few days since its inception,
the Alliance has attracted anti-FTA groups, academics,
university students, and some Senators (like Senators
Kriangsak Choonhavan and Chirmsak Pinthong). The
participation of student groups is viewed as particularly
significant since students were the key group in democracy
demonstrations in the 1970's and 1990's, and they have been
notably absent from Sondhi's previous rallies. Speakers
representing these various groups warmed up the crowd in
anticipation of perennial headliner, Sondhi, who took the
stage at 20:00hrs. Hammering on the day's recurring themes -
the sale of Shin Corp., Thaksin's alleged tax evasion, FTA,
and corruption - Sondhi energized the crowd and shouts of
"Thaksin GET OUT" reverberated through the plaza during his
one-hour-plus speech.


5. (U) The next mass demonstration is scheduled for February
26 at Sanaam Luang - the large park near the Grand Palace. In
the interim, organizers will go out of Bangkok in an effort
to expand the movement to the countryside.


6. (C) Thaksin was uncharacteristically reserved after this
week's rally. On his Saturday weekly radio program, the
Prime Minister followed up his flip-flop on the use of the
Royal Plaza with a vague offer to call for a national
referendum to amend the Constitution. The offer was
immediately derided by academics and other Alliance members
as a hollow exercise designed to buy time and defuse the
mounting pressure on his administration.

COMMENT - THE END OF THE BEGINNING

7. (C) COMMENT: The birth of the People's Alliance for
Democracy marks a turning point in the Sondhi-led movement to
oust Thaksin. While Sondhi likely will continue to play a
prominent role, the entry of student groups, the anti-FTA
crowd and others will likely alter the character of the
movement. Many of the substantive issues remain the same,
but the tactics employed by the demonstrators - who now
include students and activists - may become more
confrontational. Beyond these groups, the rallies also seek
to draw on Bangkok's middle class. While this weekend's
demonstration did attract some protesters from other
provinces, it seemed to be a majority Bangkok crowd. If
organizers are able to maintain their alliance and draw
additional support from the countryside in a sustained
campaign of public demonstrations, heretofore reticent
opposition Members of Parliament will be under increasing
pressure to enter the debate. The police, who have shown
great restraint so far, may face more provocation, however,
as students and other potentially less docile groups join the
anti-Thaksin coalition.
BOYCE