Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BANGKOK829
2006-02-10 10:41:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bangkok
Cable title:  

THAKSIN VERSUS SONDHI: MOBILIZING THE CROWDS

Tags:  PGOV PHUM TH 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

101041Z Feb 06
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 000829 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/10/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM TH
SUBJECT: THAKSIN VERSUS SONDHI: MOBILIZING THE CROWDS


Classified By: AMBASSADOR RALPH L. BOYCE FOR REASON 1.4 (B,D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 000829

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/10/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM TH
SUBJECT: THAKSIN VERSUS SONDHI: MOBILIZING THE CROWDS


Classified By: AMBASSADOR RALPH L. BOYCE FOR REASON 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary. Anti-Thaksin agitator Sondhi Limthongkul is
trying to build on the success of his February 4 rally by
expanding the movement to oust the Prime Minister. This new
"Alliance for Democracy" will rally again this Saturday,
February 11. Prime Minister Thaksin opened the week with a
flip-flop on whether Sondhi would be allowed to use the Royal
Plaza Park for his rally and the PM is trying to push back by
mobilizing groups of supporter from the provinces. Bangkok's
university students may be joining in the anti-Thaksin fight.
The PM remains firmly in control and has apparently shorn up
support in his ruling party, but the increased number of
passionate players in this drama may test the peace. End
Summary.

SONDHI: THIS ISN'T ABOUT ME, BUT GIVE ME THE MIC
-------------- ---


2. (C) Following on his large and peaceful rally against
Thaksin last Saturday (ref),media mogul Sondhi Limthongkul
held a press conference on February 8 to announce that he was
stepping aside as the sole leader of the anti-Thaksin
movement. In an apparent bid to expand support for the
anti-Thaksin movement and defuse troublesome questions about
Sondhi's role as a political reformer (given his past
friendship with the PM),the media magnate announced that a
new alliance of groups dedicated to ousting the PM would lead
future efforts, with Sondhi merely "one of many" leaders.
(Note. The exact composition of this alliance remains
unclear, though it appears to include several former Thaksin
supporters, like Sondhi. End Note.) Sondhi's effort at
fading into the background appeared only half-hearted,
however; he has challenged Thaksin to a one-on-one debate
over the "truth" in the PM's recent business dealings, and
the program for this Saturday's rally remains centered on the
latest version of Sondhi's television show.

THAKSIN WILL "FIGHT TILL I DIE"
--------------


3. (C) Thaksin remains bluntly defiant in the face of last
Saturday's rally. On Monday the PM publicly snapped that
Sondhi would not be allowed to rally in the Royal Park Plaza
anymore. After several newspapers questioned whether the PM

could really control public access to such an open, public
area, the PM's office quickly revised this statement,
explaining that Sondhi would be allowed to continue his
program if he filed the correct permits. The Prime Minister
quickly moved past this speedbump, telling an estimated 4,000
supporters at Government House on Thursday that he will
"fight till I die." Indeed, this large crowd (which appears
to have been bussed in from up-country) mirrored several,
smaller gatherings of pro-PM crowds in rural Nong Khai and
Nonthaburi. Local press has reported rumors of Interior
Ministry efforts to recruit (and pay) supporters to come to
the capital. One pro-PM group has reportedly organized in
the PM's hometown to put a curse on Sondhi.

THE SIXTH MAN COMES OFF THE BENCH
--------------


4. (C) Previous Post reporting has highlighted the lack of
significantly large, organized student participation in
either the anti or pro-Thaksin crowds. Given the historical
importance of student groups in the 1973 and 1992 political
movements that forced political change, this has been a key
absence. That may be changing. The vocal cries by some
university faculty for Thaksin to step down (which have been
going on for weeks now) may be trickling down to the student
body. On February 10, Poloff visited Thammasat University,
where approximately 1,000 students were rallying support for
a petition calling for the PM's impeachment. According to
the English-language newspaper The Nation, the head of
Thammasat's Student Union cited Thaksin's recent sale of Shin
Corp (ref B) as the basis for this protest. The Nation and
other papers also report that students from several other
Bangkok universities are beginning to organize against the PM
as well.

BUT THE ANTI-PM PROFESSIONALS REMAIN NEUTERED
--------------


5. (C) The main Opposition Democrat Party, for all intents
and purposes, has been unable to capitalize on the excitement
so far. DP leaders had hoped to use recent factional
tensions within Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party, in
particular TRT MP Sanoh Tientong's Wang Nam Yen faction, to
pass a censure motion against the PM. Meetings between
Thaksin lieutenants and the dissidents appear to have unified
TRT, however, and the DP effort is likely to fall short, once
again.

COMMENT: EVIL WILL ALWAYS TRIUMPH, BECAUSE GOOD IS DUMB
-------------- --------------


6. (C) Sondhi's effort to broaden the anti-Thaksin base is
smart and probably the only way to sustain the movement.
Whether Sondhi can live with a diminished role is an open
question. The PM remains firmly, almost defiantly in
command. The emergence and possible prominence of pro-PM
groups and anti-Thaksin students introduces uncertainty and
an element of risk to the political equation. The crowds
this weekend will probably be smaller than last weekend, when
the numbers were inflated by the rent-a-crowds bused in from
the provinces by Sondhi's supporters. And most observers
believe this weekend's rally will be relatively orderly and
peaceful. But both camps appear headed in the direction of
escalating the conflict via a show of numbers in the street -
always a risky proposition.
BOYCE