THAILAND'S BURMA POLICY: SUBTLE BUT IMPORTANT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 006757

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR MASS TH BM
SUBJECT: THAILAND'S BURMA POLICY: SUBTLE BUT IMPORTANT
CHANGES

REF: A. BANGKOK 06523 (JOHN MEETING WITH WINAI)

B. BANGKOK 06521 (JOHN MEETING WITH CIVIL SOCIETY
LEADERS)

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Classified By: Ambassador Ralph Boyce for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Following the appointment of Gen Surayud
Chulanont as interim PM, many observers anticipated a clear
shift in Thailand's policy toward Burma. One month into the
interim administration, it appears that, with a few
exceptions, revisions in policy will be manifest in subtle,
yet noteworthy shifts. In recent public statements, Surayud
assured that there will be no changes to ongoing policy
initiatives between Thailand and Burma, but he has made sure
to point out that previous commitments will be implemented
under "the principle of transparency." According to our
contacts in MFA, Surayud has signaled the regime that they
can no longer rely on Thailand to offer rationale and excuses
for their failure to move forward, and that Thailand will no
longer act as a buffer between the generals and the
international community. It remains unclear how any shift in
Thai policy will affect the planned construction of a series
of hydro-electric dams along the Salween River. Meanwhile,
the four billion baht line of credit extended to Burma by the
Thai Export-Import Bank continues to receive scrutiny as part
of the interim government's efforts to end what Surayud
described as "the corruption which has become a national
disease." End Summary.

Mixed Signals?
--------------


2. (C) Following the appointment of Gen. Surayud Chulanont as
interim PM, many observers anticipated a shift of Thailand's
policy toward Burma. During his tenure as Royal Thai Army
Commander (1998-2002),Surayud oversaw a tough,
confrontational policy towards the Burmese, particularly
along the border. Since that time, as with many other
aspects of the interim administration's behavior, signals
have appeared mixed. In his meeting with DAS Eric John on
October 24, Secretary-General of the Council for National
Security (CNS) Winai Phattiyakul said, "we will have a
completely different policy (on Burma) than the last
administration" (ref A). Surayud's decision to leave Burma
off the list of neighboring countries he visited immediately
after his appointment was interpreted as the beginning of
this change in Thai-Burma relations.


3. (C) Then, on October 31, following a sideline meeting with
Burmese Prime Minister Soe Win during the China-ASEAN summit
in Nanning, China, PM Surayud was quoted by the media as
saying "Any projects that have been agreed upon will be
continued transparently. There will be continuity of the
foreign policy, that includes the developing of diplomatic
relations." These comments were interpreted in several media
source to mean that relations between Thailand and Burma
would remain unchanged. Civil society contacts in Thailand
who follow Burma have expressed concern to us that these
statements are a reflection of resistance within the RTG
bureaucracy to any sudden shifts in policy toward Burma.
Some have even speculated that Chinese pressure brought to
bear on MFA is resulting in a softening of Surayud's initial
stance.

... or Subtle Hints?
--------------


4. (C) On November 7, Poloff discussed Thailand's Burma
policy with the Acting Director of Burma Affairs in MFA's
East Asian Affairs Division, Mr. Kallayana Vipattipumiprates.
Kallayana said that Surayud's message in Nanning had been
misinterpreted. He noted that specific policy initiatives

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(i.e. cooperation on labor migration, counter-narcotics
efforts, etc.) will continue. What will change, according to
Kallayana, is how the Thai government will implement these
policies. Kallayana said the message delivered to the regime
is that, though most policy initiatives will remain in place,
"transparency in policy implementation" will be the new
standard. He said that Surayud made it clear that Thailand
will strive to implement its policy toward Burma "in a way
that is beneficial to all Thai people, not just a few
individuals."


5. (U) In response to a question about Burma policy
following his speech to the Foreign Correspondents Club of
Thailand (FCCT) on the evening of November 7, Surayud said:
"Broadly, we will carry on with commitments on bilateral
agreements," adding that his government would adhere to "the
principle of transparency" and seek "a just course for any
previous commitments."

Neither an Apologist, nor an Antagonist
--------------


6. (C) Kallayana said that when Surayud met with PM Soe Win
in China, he attempted to deliver another subtle message.
According to Kallayana (who was part of the delegation to
Nanning),Surayud told Soe Win, "We don't consider Burma to
be a threat, but we will continue to work through ASEAN to
promote democratization." The message, according to
Kallayana, was not that Thailand is opposed to discussion of
Burma in the UN Security Council, as was interpreted in some
media outlets. The message according to Kallayana was that
regardless of Thailand's assessment of the threat represented
by Burma, Thailand will work "under ASEAN" in its effort to
promote democratization in Burma. According to Kallayana the
point is that "Burma will have to work together with ASEAN."
Kallayana went on to say that Soe Win offered no reaction to
this message. He expressed concern that Soe Win may not have
fully understood the meaning of what Surayud was trying to
say.


7. (U) Surayud told the FCCT gathering that, in his
conversation with Soe Win, he noted with dry wry humor,
"Thailand and Burma, are in the same shoes now, and we must
be careful" with respect to how the international community
views their actions. Surayud went on to say, "We have a
timeline to elections. They do not." FM Nitya Pibulsongram
softened his point, adding, "Their path is their own. We
have ours and they have their own domestic path."

A Visit to Burma?
--------------


8. (U) Asked during the FCCT event whether Surayud would
visit Burma, FM Nitya responded: "We will go." He added
that they are looking a suitable date that is convenient for
both sides.


9. (C) Kallayana affirmed that at some point during his
tenure, Surayud "is likely to visit Burma". However, he said
that Surayud is "too busy" to consider making such a trip at
the present time. He noted that Surayud's upcoming trip to
Brunei and Singapore was originally planned for two days, but
had to be cut short due to the PM's packed schedule.
Kallayana further noted that he does not believe this is "the
right time" for Surayud to visit Burma.

Dam That River?
--------------


10. (SBU) It remains unclear how any shift in Thai policy
will affect the planned construction of a series of
hydro-electric dams along the Salween River. There are

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indications that the interim government is less supportive of
the dam projects. Some media outlets have reported that
interim Energy Minister Piyavasti Amranand has suggested that
the proposals should be reviewed by the cabinet, not just by
the Ministry of Energy. However, according to the NGO
Salween River Watch, some of the agreements made between
Thai, Burmese and Chinese authorities may not be easily
suspended even if there is currently political will to do so.
For example, a report issued in September by the Shan Sapawa
Organization notes that the Thai contracting company MDX has
already commenced construction of staff buildings and roads
to the proposed site of the Tasang dam in Shan State.

Rooting out Corruption
--------------


11. (U) In the days following its establishment, the Asset
Examination Committee (AEC) announced that it would
investigate the 4 billion baht line of credit extended to
Burma by the Thai Export-Import Bank. In particular, the AEC
is focusing on a 600 million baht loan to the Burmese
government for the purchase of a broadband satellite system
from Shin Satellite, a firm previously owned by Thaksin's
family. It is unclear what action the interim government
will be able to take if the AEC uncovers a conflict of
interest in the approval of this loan.


12. (C) Kallayana informed Poloff that no new loan proposals
have come forward since the coup, and he does not anticipate
any in the near-term. "It is not the right time to ask for
new loans," he observed.

Comment
--------------


13. (C) We are encouraged by the subtle, but significant
shifts we have detected in the interim government's emerging
policy toward Burma. For now, the interim Thai government
will likely continue with specific policy initiatives related
to border security, drug trafficking, migrant labor, etc.
But the emphasis on "transparency in policy implementation"
is clearly intended as a signal that at least the tenor of
bilateral relations will change.
BOYCE