Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BANGKOK6616
2006-11-01 11:01:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bangkok
Cable title:
THAILAND UPDATE NOVEMBER 1
how-toVZCZCXRO6154 OO RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM DE RUEHBK #6616/01 3051101 ZNY CCCCC ZZH O 011101Z NOV 06 FM AMEMBASSY BANGKOK TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2676 INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 3162 RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 6244 RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 2293 RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI RHFJSCC/COMMARFORPAC RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 006616
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PACOM FOR FPA HUSO
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E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM TH
SUBJECT: THAILAND UPDATE NOVEMBER 1
REF: BANGKOK 6540
Classified By: Political Counselor Susan M. Sutton, reason 1.4 (b) and
(d).
STRANGE BEDFELLOWS
--------------------
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 006616
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PACOM FOR FPA HUSO
NSC FOR MORROW
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM TH
SUBJECT: THAILAND UPDATE NOVEMBER 1
REF: BANGKOK 6540
Classified By: Political Counselor Susan M. Sutton, reason 1.4 (b) and
(d).
STRANGE BEDFELLOWS
--------------
1. (C) Former Prime Minister Thaksin's wife called on Privy
Councillor Prem Tinsulanonda on October 26. The brief
meeting has engendered a storm of protest. Critics complained
that the meeting undermined confidence in the interim
government, raising fears that leading figures might be
looking for a way to compromise with the former PM, rather
than prosecute him and root out his pernicious influence from
Thai politics. Second-hand reports of the meeting indicate
that Pojaman consulted Prem about facilitating her husband's
return to Thailand, and Prem answered that she would have to
talk to the government, as he had no authority in the issue.
The general feeling here is that Pojaman came out ahead on
this round, creating a sympathetic impression as a dutiful
wife and contributing to general unease about the
government's lack of fervour in going after Thaksin and his
assets.
2. (C) In the current atmosphere of distrust, even sporting
events have political undertones. The Defense Ministry's
friendly soccer match with the Senior Football Players'
Association turned into a political football when Council for
National Security chair Gen. Sonthi was pictured side-by-side
with a smiling Somsak Thepsuban, former Labor minister and
head of the largest faction formerly in Thai Rak Thai. CNS
Secretary-General Winai has also been criticized for an
SIPDIS
alleged meeting with former TRT leaders, giving rise to
speculation that he might be seeking a political party to be
a vehicle for a political career after the return to elected
government (reftel). Gen. Winai publicly denied this week
that any of the CNS members had political aspirations, as did
Gen. Sonthi.
3. (C) Comment: Many of the coup supporters in Bangkok are
deeply disappointed that the government/CNS have not yet
"gotten" Thaksin on one of the many charges of corruption
under investigation. While the investigators point to the
complexity of the cases, critics fret that Thaksin's enormous
wealth may be at work, undermining the investigations and
seducing the current leadership into cutting some kind of
deal with the former PM. Fears that the coup leaders might
try to stay in power do not appear to be widespread, but the
example of the 1991-91 crisis is in the back of many minds.
Then, coup leader General Suchinda went back on his promise
that he would not return as Prime Minister, and thereby
provoked the demonstrations that ended in bloodshed. We do
not see evidence that the current CNS plans to repeat that
mistake, but concerns about this are likely to persist
throughout the transition period. End comment.
PROMOTIONS, DEMOTIONS
--------------
4. (SBU) The government named Pranai Suwannarat to be the
chairman of the reconstituted Southern Border Provinces
Administrative Center (SBPAC). Pranai is the brother of
Privy Councillor Palakorn, who formerly served as head of the
SBPAC. Thaksin's 2001 decision to disband the civilian-led
agency is generally viewed as a contributing factor to the
rise in the violence in the region. The government hopes that
reestablishing the Center will help to quell the violence, in
part by improving coordination between the many
government/security elements working in the South. However,
everyone recognizes that it may take a very long time for any
policy changes to have an effect in the troubled region.
5. (C) The Interior Ministry announced a reshuffle of
high-ranking officials, which saw the reassignment of 11
governors to less-sensitive positions. According to press
reports, these eleven were believed to have links to Thaksin.
Governors in TRT strongholds Chiang Mai, Chiang Rai and Khon
BANGKOK 00006616 002 OF 002
Kaen were among those transferred. These transfers may help
assuage the government/CNS fears of pro-TRT 'undercurrents'
in the countryside, the main justification for maintaining
martial law.
WHERE ARE THEY NOW?
--------------
6. (SBU) According to a Chinese journalist contact, Thaksin
is expected to land in the PRC today, traveling on business.
BOYCE
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
PACOM FOR FPA HUSO
NSC FOR MORROW
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM TH
SUBJECT: THAILAND UPDATE NOVEMBER 1
REF: BANGKOK 6540
Classified By: Political Counselor Susan M. Sutton, reason 1.4 (b) and
(d).
STRANGE BEDFELLOWS
--------------
1. (C) Former Prime Minister Thaksin's wife called on Privy
Councillor Prem Tinsulanonda on October 26. The brief
meeting has engendered a storm of protest. Critics complained
that the meeting undermined confidence in the interim
government, raising fears that leading figures might be
looking for a way to compromise with the former PM, rather
than prosecute him and root out his pernicious influence from
Thai politics. Second-hand reports of the meeting indicate
that Pojaman consulted Prem about facilitating her husband's
return to Thailand, and Prem answered that she would have to
talk to the government, as he had no authority in the issue.
The general feeling here is that Pojaman came out ahead on
this round, creating a sympathetic impression as a dutiful
wife and contributing to general unease about the
government's lack of fervour in going after Thaksin and his
assets.
2. (C) In the current atmosphere of distrust, even sporting
events have political undertones. The Defense Ministry's
friendly soccer match with the Senior Football Players'
Association turned into a political football when Council for
National Security chair Gen. Sonthi was pictured side-by-side
with a smiling Somsak Thepsuban, former Labor minister and
head of the largest faction formerly in Thai Rak Thai. CNS
Secretary-General Winai has also been criticized for an
SIPDIS
alleged meeting with former TRT leaders, giving rise to
speculation that he might be seeking a political party to be
a vehicle for a political career after the return to elected
government (reftel). Gen. Winai publicly denied this week
that any of the CNS members had political aspirations, as did
Gen. Sonthi.
3. (C) Comment: Many of the coup supporters in Bangkok are
deeply disappointed that the government/CNS have not yet
"gotten" Thaksin on one of the many charges of corruption
under investigation. While the investigators point to the
complexity of the cases, critics fret that Thaksin's enormous
wealth may be at work, undermining the investigations and
seducing the current leadership into cutting some kind of
deal with the former PM. Fears that the coup leaders might
try to stay in power do not appear to be widespread, but the
example of the 1991-91 crisis is in the back of many minds.
Then, coup leader General Suchinda went back on his promise
that he would not return as Prime Minister, and thereby
provoked the demonstrations that ended in bloodshed. We do
not see evidence that the current CNS plans to repeat that
mistake, but concerns about this are likely to persist
throughout the transition period. End comment.
PROMOTIONS, DEMOTIONS
--------------
4. (SBU) The government named Pranai Suwannarat to be the
chairman of the reconstituted Southern Border Provinces
Administrative Center (SBPAC). Pranai is the brother of
Privy Councillor Palakorn, who formerly served as head of the
SBPAC. Thaksin's 2001 decision to disband the civilian-led
agency is generally viewed as a contributing factor to the
rise in the violence in the region. The government hopes that
reestablishing the Center will help to quell the violence, in
part by improving coordination between the many
government/security elements working in the South. However,
everyone recognizes that it may take a very long time for any
policy changes to have an effect in the troubled region.
5. (C) The Interior Ministry announced a reshuffle of
high-ranking officials, which saw the reassignment of 11
governors to less-sensitive positions. According to press
reports, these eleven were believed to have links to Thaksin.
Governors in TRT strongholds Chiang Mai, Chiang Rai and Khon
BANGKOK 00006616 002 OF 002
Kaen were among those transferred. These transfers may help
assuage the government/CNS fears of pro-TRT 'undercurrents'
in the countryside, the main justification for maintaining
martial law.
WHERE ARE THEY NOW?
--------------
6. (SBU) According to a Chinese journalist contact, Thaksin
is expected to land in the PRC today, traveling on business.
BOYCE