Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BANGKOK6540
2006-10-27 10:47:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bangkok
Cable title:  

DAS JOHN DISCUSSION WITH ACTIVIST KRAISAK

Tags:  PGOV PHUM TH 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 006540 

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/25/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM TH
SUBJECT: DAS JOHN DISCUSSION WITH ACTIVIST KRAISAK
CHOONHAVAN

REF: A. BANGKOK 6478


B. BANGKOK 5711

Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce, reason 1.4 (b) (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 006540

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PACOM FOR FPA HUSO
NSC FOR MORROW

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/25/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM TH
SUBJECT: DAS JOHN DISCUSSION WITH ACTIVIST KRAISAK
CHOONHAVAN

REF: A. BANGKOK 6478


B. BANGKOK 5711

Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce, reason 1.4 (b) (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: DAS John met with former Senator Kraisak
Choonhavan to discuss the Thai political situation. Kraisak
was glad that former PM Thaksin had been removed, but
disappointed in the coup makers. He was particularly critical
of the lack of progress in the corruption investigations. He
questioned whether the coup leaders might be prepared to make
a deal with Thaksin, and was concerned that some of them
might harbor their own political aspirations. Kraisak
believed that the government should lift martial law, but
also warned that Thaksin "had thugs everywhere" and was
determined to come back. Kraisak also expressed concern about
the situation in the South, where the absence of justice
continued to cause anger among the local population.
Kraisak's concerns are being echoed by a variety of sources
around Bangkok, and appear to be part of a trend, as some of
the "Bangkok elite" grow increasingly disillusioned with the
coup. End summary.


2. (C) DAS Eric John met on October 26 with former Senator
Kraisak Choonhavan, a long-time critic of former PM Thaksin.
Kraisak set out serious problems facing the interim
government and the coup council. Kraisak complained that the
authorities were not moving fast enough to freeze Thaksin's
assets and dismantle his power structure, including Thai Rak
Thai (TRT). Kraisak complained that the initial Assets
Examination Commission was set up immediately after the coup
with "six people known to be corrupt and incompetent."
Kraisak met with the Council for National Security (CNS) and
advised them on better choices, including former Senators who
had spent years investigating Thaksin administration
corruption. (Note, The CNS revamped the commission on
September 30 along the lines of Kraisak's recommendation. End
note.)


3. (C) DAS John underscored the concerns in Washington about
the coup and the timetable for returning to democratic rule.
He noted in particular concerns we would have if there were
unfair prosecutions. He warned that, if the government tried

Thaksin while martial law was still in effect, it might look
like a "kangaroo court." Ambassador Boyce noted that, at the
same time, the government was under significant pressure to
proceed with prosecutions. Kraisak said that the government
would not use a "kangaroo court." They are being careful
about how they proceed, "too careful, in my opinion." They
understand that "international capital" is involved. In any
case, the Asset Examination Commission would have to take
whatever case they make to a court for trial.


4. (C) Kraisak turned to complain more generally about the
slow pace of dismantling Thai Rak Thai. He raised the
concern that some in the CNS and government were deliberately
going easy on TRT, perhaps because they hoped to make some
kind of deal with Thaksin. In particular, he feared that
some might be willing to help Thaksin preserve his wealth in
exchange for an agreement to stay out of politics himself,
but provide covert financial support for a new political
party. "I am extremely concerned about their motivations," he
said. He hinted darkly that CNS Secretary General Winai
might have political aspirations, and pointed out that Winai
was close to Pinij Jarusombat, former TRT health minister.
Pinij was expected to form a new political party together
with one of the largest TRT factions, based in TRT's
northeastern stronghold, which included over 100 MPs.
(Comment: We don't find the accusation against Gen. Winai
very credible, but note that similiar concerns are beginning
to turn up in the Thai media. A spokesman for the Peoples
Alliance for Democracy (PAD) made a similar accusation about
Gen. Winai to the press, and other writers have speculated
that "traitors within the CNS" are responsible for the lack
of progress on assets seizure. End comment.) Kraisak warned
that, "If the coupmakers have political ambitions," there
will be problems. "Those who opposed Thaksin from the
beginning won't be happy."

BANGKOK 00006540 002 OF 002




5. (C) Kraisak said that there were divisions within the
interim leadership. Some of the military faction did not
like the election of controversial jurist Meechai Ruchupan as
head of the National Legislative Assembly (ref A). Some are
unhappy because they did not get enough of their people into
the Cabinet and National Legislative Assembly. At the same
time, there was concern that some of the new cabinet members
were too close to Thaksin. (Kraisak cited the new Interior
Minister as one example.) Kraisak gave PM Surayud a mixed
review. "He's not power hungry," Kraisak said, but he lacks
the experience to be a good PM. He thinks he has the answer
to everything, but he simplifies things too much, according
to Kraisak.


6. (C) Kraisak believed that the CNS was being too cautious
about lifting martial law. He did not believe that there was
a threat that justified this decision. However, he
acknowledged that Thaksin "has thugs everywhere" and cited
the school burnings in several districts as evidence of this.
"Thaksin plays hard ball. He's serious about coming back,"
Kraisak said. He agreed that this was the real fear leading
the government to maintain martial law. Regarding Thaksin's
own plans on September 19, Kraisak believed that Thaksin was
planning to declare a state of emergency shortly after his
return from the UN. Thaksin would have based this on the car
bomb case (ref B),which would have been blamed on several
generals in the Internal Security Operations Command (ISOC),
giving him an excuse to dismiss Gen. Sonthi as Army Commander
in Chief and then declare the emergency. Kraisak said, "The
coup solved one problem, but created more." Asked what the
government/CNS could do now to correct their initial
mistakes, Kraisak shrugged his shoulders, "It's too late."


7. (C) Kraisak also raised concerns about the situation in
the South. He underscored the importance of accountability
and giving the people due process. He raised the case of a
Muslim teacher who had been shot in the head and seriously
injured. Kraisak had some evidence that the attack was
committed by a soldier who had apparently been hired by drug
dealers. The military had advised Kraisak to take his
evidence to the police, rather than dealing with it
themselves. Kraisak pointed out that the track record for
resolving such cases was very poor, and this left many people
in the South angry.

COMMENT
--------------


8. (C) Kraisak is one of the anti-Thaksin activists who at
least accepted the coup when it happened, but are unhappy
with the way things have developed since. Although Kraisak's
name was mentioned as a potential foreign minister, he has
wound up without any position, and there may be a whiff of
sour grapes about some of his complaints. He is, however, a
sharp observer and may be a bellwether for the shift of
"elite Bangkok" opinion; they are palpably less enthusiastic
about the coup now than they were a month ago, and are
looking for explanations about why things have not gone as
expected. Kraisak has earned a deserved reputation as an
advocate for human rights, so it worth noting that his
strongest criticism was that the corruption investigations
were going too slowly and cautiously, also reflecting a
widely-held view.


9. (U) DAS John did not have the opportunity to clear this
cable.
BOYCE