Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BANGKOK6325
2006-10-16 12:06:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bangkok
Cable title:  

THAILAND UPDATE: OCTOBER 16

Tags:  PGOV PHUM KDEM TH 
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FM AMEMBASSY BANGKOK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2332
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 6185
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 2237
RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON 1550
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHFJSCC/COMMARFORPAC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L BANGKOK 006325 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/16/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM TH
SUBJECT: THAILAND UPDATE: OCTOBER 16


Classified By: Political Officer David R. Greenberg, reason 1.4 (b) and
(d).

SUMMARY
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L BANGKOK 006325

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/16/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM TH
SUBJECT: THAILAND UPDATE: OCTOBER 16


Classified By: Political Officer David R. Greenberg, reason 1.4 (b) and
(d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (SBU) The Cabinet will discuss martial law on October 17
but appears unlikely to rescind it; a top military official
said publicly martial law should be lifted within two months.
The Crown Prince, rather than the King, is scheduled to
preside over the National Legislative Assembly (NLA) opening
ceremony. NGO figures have pressed publicly against the
potential selection of a conservative legal expert as NLA
President. Deposted caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin
Shinawatra has expressed interest in returning to Thailand
but has been told the time is not yet right. End Summary.

CNS DEPUTY: MARTIAL LAW COULD LAST UP TO TWO MORE MONTHS
-------------- --------------


2. (SBU) Thai daily "The Nation" quoted Air Force Commander
Chalit Pookphasuk (also the deputy leader of the Council for
National Security - CNS) as saying on October 15 that
"martial law should be lifted within one to two months."
Meanwhile, interim Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont has said
that the cabinet would further discuss martial law on October

17. However, Surayud did not sound optimistic that martial
law would be lifted imminently: "After that, we will inform
local and foreign media about how we can accommodate their
calls for public rights and liberties," he told the press.
Septel reports on Ambassador's discussion with General Sonthi
on this issue.

CROWN PRINCE TO PRESIDE AT PARLIAMENTARY CEREMONY
-------------- --------------


3. (C) Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn will preside over the
opening ceremony of the National Legislative Assembly (NLA)
on October 20, according to press reports. This will be the
first time that the King has not presided over the Parliament
opening, according to the press. (Comment: It is unclear
whether the King's failure to appear might be interpreted as
a signal that he lacks enthusiasm for the new government. We
believe the most likely reason the King will not preside is
because of his poor health. We also note there has been a
concerted effort by the Palace to raise the Crown Prince's
public profile recently, most likely in order to improve his
image in anticipation of his eventual accession to the
throne. End Comment.)

EYEING THE ASSEMBLY'S PRESIDENCY
--------------


4. (C) The media has given prominent coverage to criticism by
NGO figures of the potential selection of legal expert
Meechai Ruchuphan as President of the National Legislative
Assembly. Meechai, a former Senate Speaker, is widely seen
as highly conservative; he was one of the key drafters of the
interim constitution, and he also worked on behalf of the
clique that conducted Thailand's 1991 coup d'etat. Although
the interim constitution provides for a CNS role in
appointing the NLA President, CNS Chairman Sonthi
Boonyaratglin has stated publicly he will leave the selection
of the NLA President to the Assembly members. (Comment:
Given that the CNS appointed the Assembly members, almost
one-third of whom are current or retired military or police
officials, we believe that the Assembly's selection will not
run counter to the will of the CNS. End Comment.)

THAKSIN INQUIRES ABOUT RETURN
--------------


5. (SBU) The media has also given prominent coverage to
reports that deposed caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin
Shinawatra requested in a phone conversation with interim PM
Surayud that he be allowed to return to Thailand. Surayud
said Thaksin must wait: "(T)he timing must be right, and we
have to discuss the details." Separately, Defense Minister
Boonrawd Somthas said Thaksin should wait to return until
after martial law is lifted.
BOYCE