THAKSIN'S THAI RAK THAI FACES UNCERTAIN FUTURE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 006289

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/13/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM TH
SUBJECT: THAKSIN'S THAI RAK THAI FACES UNCERTAIN FUTURE

REF: A. BANGKOK 5972 (ABHISIT ON COUP)


B. BANGKOK 1301 (SNAP ELECTION)

Classified By: Political Officer David R. Greenberg, reason 1.4 (b) and
(d).

SUMMARY
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1. (C) In the aftermath of the September 19 coup d'etat, many
leading figures have fled Thai Rak Thai (TRT),the party of
deposed caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Thaksin
himself submitted a letter of resignation from the position
of party leader -- a move that should dissolve the party's
executive board, per the party bylaws. The Constitutional
Tribunal established by the coup leaders should soon consider
a case, initiated prior to the coup, involving TRT legal
transgressions; this case could lead to TRT's dissolution and
a five-year ban from politics for top TRT figures. Many TRT
figures also face scrutiny from newly established bodies
charged with investigating corruption. The principal
beneficiaries from TRT's collapse are unclear. While TRT may
have no future as a political party, the coup leaders may
find it difficult to eliminate pro-Thaksin and pro-TRT
sentiment in the party's populous strongholds. End Summary.

FLEEING A SINKING SHIP
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2. (U) Soon after the September 19 coup d'etat, leading TRT
officials began resigning from their positions on the party
executive board; many resigned their party membership as
well. As of mid-October, a devastating number of top figures
had jumped ship, including Suriya Jungrungreangkit, the party
Secretary General; Somsak Thepsuthin, leader of the Wang Nam

SIPDIS
Yom faction (TRT's largest grouping); Pinij Jarusombat,
another prominent faction leader; Suranand Vejjajiva, the
party spokesman; and Somkid Jatusripitak, who, prior to the
coup, had been seen as the figure most likely to keep TRT
united in the event of Thaksin's withdrawal from politics.
At last count, approximately half of the members of TRT's
119-person executive board have resigned, as had over 100 who
held seats in the now-dissolved parliament (many also being
executive board members).


3. (U) Ensconsed in London, Thaksin sent a letter dated
October 2 to the TRT executive committee. In this letter,
publicized the following day, Thaksin, citing the coup, said
he had no choice but to resign immediately from his position
as party leader. He suggested that this move would allow the
party members to elect a new executive committee. It also
would provide an opportunity for those who wished to change
their political path to do so.

WHO'S IN CHARGE?
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4. (C) It remains unclear, however, whether Thaksin's
resignation letter has had legal effect. According to the
law on political parties, changes to the composition of a
party's executive committee must be submitted to the Election
Commission's registrar. As of October 12, officials at the
Election Commission told us they had received no notification
from TRT of Thaksin's resignation.


5. (U) TRT's bylaws stipulate that the party executive board
is to be dissolved upon the resignation of the party leader;
within 45 days, the party should hold a general meeting
(i.e., a party congress) in order to select a new executive
board. Until that time, the old board assumes caretaker
status, and the top deputy leader steps up to become acting
party leader.


6. (C) Sudarat Keyuraphan, TRT's top deputy leader, was
outside of Thailand when the coup took place. She returned a
few days later, saying she would take a break from politics
and cooperate with the coup leaders. After Thaksin resigned,
she publicly declined to step up as acting party leader.
Nevertheless, a TRT politician told us on October 11 that
Sudarat appears to remain the most significant link between
TRT and Thaksin.


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7. (C) The press reported on October 12 that TRT deputy
leader Chaturon Chaisaeng, had been selected as acting party
leader. However, a TRT contact denied to us that any such
selection had taken place, saying the press reports distorted
the views of TRT deputy leader Pongthep Thepkanchana (also
seen as a leading candidate to take over what remains of
TRT). It was not possible for TRT to install new leadership,
as the Council for Democratic Reform (CDR) Order No. 15
(dated September 21) prohibited political parties from
holding meetings or carrying out activities.

LEGAL CASE ADVANCING
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8. (SBU) Meanwhile, TRT faces a legal battle for its
survival; even prior to the coup, the Office of the Attorney
General had recommended that the Constitutional Court
dissolve TRT for fraudulently promoting weak competitors in
April's election. (Ref B explains TRT's motive for doing
so.) This case is proceeding under the current interim
administration. On September 30, the CDR issued Announcement
No. 27, which included provisions strengthening the penalties
for members of executive boards of dissolved political
parties. Previously, such figures could not take on key
positions in political parties for five years; under the new
guidelines, such figures lose their voting rights for five
years. (The 1997 Constitution disallowed those without
voting rights from election to parliament, and, therefore,
from cabinet positions as well. We suspect the next
constitution will also contain similar provisions.)


9. (C) Some observers see the CDR's Announcement No. 27 as a
signal to the new Constitutional Tribunal -- which has taken
on the cases of the old Constitutional Court -- that the coup
leaders would welcome TRT's dissolution. Others, however,
believe that the coup leaders would not want to further
agitate Thaksin's supporters by encouraging TRT's
dissolution. It is not clear that the Tribunal's ruling will
be determined by political considerations. Even before the
coup, it appeared that the legal case against TRT was very
strong, but the courts might have been reluctant to challenge
the Prime Minister, and also to face the repercussions of
dissolving Thailand's largest party. We are not aware of the
Tribunal's timetable, if one has been set, for considering
this case.


10. (C) Dissolution of TRT, and the accompanying five-year
disenfranchisement of its top officials, represent one way to
neutralize the former TRT leadership. Also, the coup leaders
established a new National Counter Corruption Commission, as
well as a special Asset Examination Committee (AEC) to
investigate Thaksin administration projects. The AEC has
prioritized eight cases which involve numerous TRT figures,
including former Secretary General Suriya Jungrungreangkit,
Bhokin Khalakula, Newin Chidchob, and others. Additional
cases can also be revived against others; former Deputy Prime
Minister Suwat Liptapanlop, who held the number three
position on TRT's party list in 2005, has long been linked to
irregularities in a water treatment plant project. It is
unclear whether the RTG is likely to uncover evidence
implicating Thaksin directly, despite widespread charges that
his administration was both corrupt and authoritarian.

OTHER PARTIES TO BENEFIT?
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11. (C) Democrat Party (DP) leader Abhisit Vejjajiva told the
Ambassador recently that he did not foresee his party
expanding quickly into the vaccuum left by TRT, particularly
as DP was not courting the more influential faction leaders
(ref A). DP Spokesman Ong-Art Klampaiboon reiterated this
point to us; DP did not want to attract TRT figures
associated with money politics. Ong-Art said that prior to
the coup, many TRT faction leaders had established new
political parties as backup vehicles. He expected most
faction leaders to reemerge with their own parties.
Nevertheless, some longtime practitioners of backroom deals,
such as Banharn Silapa-Archa and Sanoh Tienthong (leaders of
the Chart Thai and Pracharat parties, respectively),could
well attract former TRT figures, improving their prospects in
the next election.


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12. (C) Former TRT Spokesman Suranand told us that former
Deputy PM Somkid was the key figure to watch; Somkid had the
best prospects of unifying TRT figures in a new party that
would appeal to TRT's base. Media reports have speculated
about a new party combining the popular image of Somkid with
Somsak's large northeastern Thailand base of support.
However, Suranand and other politicians have told us that
most TRT figures are in a "wait and see" mode. Not only are
political activities currently prohibited, but the framework
and rules for the next election remain undefined.

JUNTA GRABBED POWER -- BUT HEARTS AND MINDS?
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13. (C) Before the coup, TRT appeared likely to gain at least
a plurality, if not an outright majority, in elections which
had been anticipated for November 2006. Thaksin and TRT
appeared genuinely popular, having won the appreciation of
many of Thailand's less privileged voters for having
implemented populist policies. Interim Prime Minister
Surayud Chulanont has shown a desire to court TRT's base;
some believe Surayud's administration is reluctant to lift
martial law before at least calming (if not coopting) TRT
supporters. Surayud plans an October 13 trip to northeastern
Thailand, TRT's major stronghold. His administration is
retaining key TRT initiatives, such as village development
funds and major subsidies for health care -- although the
political class often derided the latter as having a
corrosive effect on the health care system, and the former as
a type of payoff to local chieftans.

COMMENT
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14. (C) TRT's leadership, already suffering from factionalism
before the coup, is now in disarray, and the party could be
formally dissolved in the coming weeks. But TRT, and
Thaksin, may remain popular with large segments of Thailand
for months if not years to come. The person or party best
able to understand and appeal to TRT's base could wield
substantial influence in the post-coup era.
BOYCE