THAILAND: OCTOBER 3 SITUATION UPDATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 006058

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EAP, EAP/MLS
PACOM FOR FPA HUSO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/03/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM MARR TH
SUBJECT: THAILAND: OCTOBER 3 SITUATION UPDATE

REF: BANGKOK 5949

Classified By: Charge Alexander A. Arvizu. Reason 1.4 (a and d)


1. Summary. Thai troops are no longer visible at
checkpoints and government buildings in Bangkok and armored
vehicles are off the roads. Thai soldiers remain at some TV
stations but are reportedly leaving soon. Thai Rak Thai
Party leaders announced that former Prime Minister Thaksin
Shinawatra had resigned from the party in order to "solve the
chaos in the country." MFA sources report that former Thai
Ambassador to Washington and lead FTA negotiator Nitya
Pibulsonggram will be named Foreign Minister. Other sources
suggest that former Thaksin Education Minister and Privy
Councilor Kasem Watthanachai will be named Education Minister
and Privy Councilor Palakorn Suwannarat will be named
Interior Minister. The annual military reshuffle has been
announced. Our poll of defense attaches suggests that no
other country is imposing military sanctions on the Thai for
the coup. End Summary.

TROOPS ARE OFF THE STREETS IN BANGKOK AND LESS VISIBLE IN TV
STUDIOS


2. (C) Armed troops are no longer present at non-military
government installations in Bangkok. Military checkpoints
which had been set up at key intersections have been removed.
Armored vehicles, which had become tourist sites in recent
days, have returned to their bases. In the days after the
coup, we witnessed uniformed soldiers in or next to TV
broadcast booths at all of the Thai networks. As of today,
no military vehicles were present at Channel 3, but some
soldiers were seen in the parking lot out of uniform. No
soldiers were seen in the control or news room. At ITV, we
saw no military vehicles and our confidential sources report
no soldiers in the news facility. However soldiers remain at
the security guard post on the ITV compound. Armed military
remain at Channel 11, but are no longer sitting outside the
control booth. Some contacts at the Thai networks report
that they have been told that all soldiers will be removed
from their facilities in the coming days.

THAKSIN RESIGNS FROM THAI RAK THAI


3. (U) Thai Rak Thai (TRT) political party deputy Pongthep
Thepkarnchana announced that former Prime Minister Thaksin
Shinawatra had resigned from the Party "to solve the chaos in
the country." TRT plans to give a press briefing to explain
the decision.

NITYA AS FOREIGN MINISTER, KASEM TO EDUCATION AND PALAKORN TO
INTERIOR


4. (SBU) MFA sources report that former Thai Ambassador to
Washington Nitya Pibulsonggram will be named as Foreign
Minister in the Surayud government. Nitya, a career
diplomat, was formerly Ambassador to Washington and
Thailand's Permanent Representative to the United Nations.
Married to an American and educated at Dartmouth and Brown,
Nitya was most recently chief Thai negotiator during
Thai-U.S. FTA discussions.


5. (SBU) We also hear that Privy Councilor Kasem
Watthanachai will be named Education Minister. Kasem is a
medical doctor, graduate of the University of Chicago and
former Rector of Chiang Mai University. He ran for
Parliament in 2001 as a member of former Prime Minister
Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai Party and served as Education
Minister under Thaksin.


6. (SBU) Privy Councilor Palakorn Suwannarat is rumored to
be named Interior Minister. Palakorn has a Master's Degree
from Ohio University and is a former Governor of Pattani and
Chiang Mai. He is also a former Deputy Permanent Secretary
at the Interior Ministry.

MILITARY SANCTIONS BY OTHERS


BANGKOK 00006058 002 OF 003



7. (C) Our contacts with other Embassies in Bangkok leads
us to believe that no other country is imposing military
sanctions on the Thai yet:

--The UK DATT said that working level educational exchanges
continue and that there is no move afoot to cancel mil-mil CT
courses. He did confirm that, shortly after the coup due to
the uncertain situation, the Royal Navy had canceled a
planned ship visit scheduled to take place this week. They
have no planned future ship visit until next spring.

--The Australian DATT reports his country has no mandatory
sanctions to impose after a coup. He has received no
indication from Canberra that any military assistance will be
cut and is proceeding with ongoing programs.

--Canada has a small English language program for military
officials. Our source at the Canadian Embassy said that
Ottawa is considering cutting a long-term English training
course but added no final decision has been made.

--France has no significant mil-mil training program but
occasionally sends a ship to visit Thailand.

--Japan has no mil-mil programs to Thailand but participates
in Cobra Gold.

--Singapore has no plan to cut mil-mil cooperation.

MILITARY OPPORTUNITIES FOR OTHERS


8. (C) Our contacts in the Attache and diplomatic world
confirm that some countries look at our sanctions and a
possible increase in the Thai defense budget as an
opportunity:

--Chinese diplomats and military officers are rumored to want
to increase the slots for Thai military students taking part
in their military education program.

--Russian attaches appear eager to renew their campaign to
have the Thai select the SU-30 over the F-16 in any new
fighter aircraft purchase made by the Royal Thai Air Force.

--Israeli contractors are working with the Russians on the
SU-30 program and have an office up and running in Bangkok.

MILITARY RESHUFFLE


9. (C) Every October, the Thai military announces a major
reshuffle shifting officers into new positions throughout the
military. DAO is providing detailed analysis septel of the
recently announced reshuffle. A number of our key
interlocutors have moved. Among these are former National
Security Council Secretary-General and U.S. Command and
General Staff College (USCGSC) Graduate GEN Winai
Phatthayikun who was named Permanent Secretary at the
Ministry of Defense (he will continue to serve on the Council
for National Security).


10. (C) At Royal Thai Army (RTA) Headquarters, GEN Sonthi
Boonyaratglin remains CINC as expected. The new deputy CINC
is GEN Paisarn Katanyoo. We had worked closely in previous
Cobra Gold exercises and in administering tsunami relief with
former 3rd Army Corps Commander LTG Saprang Kalayanaramit.
Saprang, a vocal critic of the Thaksin administration, was
promoted to full General and named Assistant RTA CINC
together with newly promoted GEN Anupong Poajinda, a Thaksin
prep school classmate who supported the coup. The new RTA
Chief of Staff is GEN Montri Sankhasap, a UK Command and
General Staff College graduate.


11. (C) At Royal Thai Supreme Command (RTSC),West Point
graduate (class of '71) GEN Boonsrang Niampradith was named
Supreme Commander as expected. Boonsrang is also replacing
former RTSC commander GEN Ruengroj Mahasaranond on the
Council for National Security (CNS). RTSC Deputy Commander
is Sandhurst graduate GEN Phairot Phanitsamai.

BANGKOK 00006058 003 OF 003




12. (C) Former RTSC Chief of Staff and USCGSC graduate GEN
Lertrat Ratanawanich was shunted off to an inspector general
position presumably for having been too close to Thaksin.
Lertrat also has a reputation for having business practices
that are excessive even by Thai Army standards. Former RTSC
J-3 LTG Khemerat Kanchanawat was named chief of staff of
officers attached to the Supreme Commander (not to be
confused with the more prestigious position of Chief of
Staff). Former Cobra Gold chief and deputy commander to the
EU-ASEAN mission to Aceh, LTG Niphat Thonglek, remains
responsible for the Military Border Affairs Department.

NEW CNS


13. (U) The RTG announced the expansion of the CNS to
include two new members -- the previously mentioned Assistant
RTA CINCs GEN Anupong and GEN Saprang. Together with RTSC
Commander GEN Boonsrang who replaces Ruengroj, these three
officers will join the other five members of the CNS already
in place: RTA CINC General Sonthi Boonyaratglin, RTAF CINC
Air Chief Marshal Chalit Pookphasuk, RTN CINC Admiral
Satirapan Keyanon, Police General Kovit Wattana and, General
Winai Phattiyakul.

MORE SCHOOL BURNINGS


14. (C) Two schools burned down separately in the
northeastern cities of Buriram and Nakhon Ratchasima
overnight on October 1 and October 2, respectively. No one
was hurt in the fires, but they follow the five school
burnings in Kamphengphet (Reftel) last week. Although the
causes of all the fires remain undetermined, some Thai are
speculating that they may be related to people's sentiments
against the coup in that region. The northeast is
traditionally a TRT Party stronghold.
ARVIZU