THAILAND UPDATE: SEPTEMBER 27

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 005949

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

TREASURY PASS TO FRB SAN FRANCISCO/TERESA CURRAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/26/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM TH
SUBJECT: THAILAND UPDATE: SEPTEMBER 27

Classified By: DCM Alexander A. Arvizu, reason 1.4 (b) (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: The Council on Democratic Reform (CDR) says
it will announce the interim prime minister on Sunday. Privy
Councillor and retired General Surayud Chulanond appears to
be the lead candidate again, and many contacts anticipate he
will be chosen. The CDR announced the establishment of four
advisory councils composed of many respected civil society
leaders, perhaps in an effort to co-opt potential critics. If
so, the effort did not work; "members" were not consulted in
advance and several declined to participate. Several noted
jurists who helped draft the interim Constitution have
withdrawn from any further role assisting the CDR -- at
least, officially -- in response to public criticism of their
previous service in the Thaksin government. Former Defense
Minister Thamarak appears to "under the control" of the CDR,
although staying in his own home. END SUMMARY.

INTERIM PRIME MINISTER - GENERAL SURAYUD?
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2. (C) Speculation has turned back to Privy Councillor and
retired General Surayud Chulanont as the leading candidate to
be the interim Prime Minister. Surayud's name has come up
repeatedly during the prolonged political crisis of the past
year as a possible replacement for Thaksin, particularly when
the opposition was pushing for the King to name a prime
minister by invoking Article 7 of the Constitution. On the
positive side, Surayud is very widely respected across the
economic and geographic lines dividing the country. He is
unlikely to be viewed as seeking power for himself. The
negatives are just as obvious: as a retired General, he is
technically civilian, but choosing a retired military officer
will not be well-received by the international community.
Also, Surayud, as a privy councillor, is also identified with
the King, which could complicate efforts by the CDR and other
Thai officials to dispel the rumors that the King was behind
the coup. Nonetheless, for today, at least, Surayud seems to
be the front-runner. The CDR says that they will announce
the new PM on Sunday.


3. (C) According to a local academic, the CDR tried, and
failed, to get Privy Council President Prem Tinsulanonda to
give advice on the PM candidates. According to the
professor, Prem would not indicate a preference, but only
said that the interim PM should be "brave, honest, and
loyal." The professor also opined that Surayud was the most
likely candidate, dismissing UNCTAD deputy head Supachai and
other candidates as lacking the stature needed to do the job.



CDR FORMS ADVISORY BODIES, FAILS TO CONSULT ADVISORS
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4. (C) The media reported that the CDR on September 26 formed
four advisory committees, covering economic affairs; foreign
affairs; reconciliation and social justice; and ethics,
governance, and the prevention of corruption and abuse of
power. It appears from both press reports and private
conversations with contacts that the CDR did not consult most
members before including them on these committees. Academics
have substantial representation on the committees, as no less
than 32 of the 66 members are professors, assistant
professors, or associate professors. Bank of Thailand
Governor Pridiyathorn Devakula, rumored as a potential Prime
Minister, heads the advisory committee on economic affairs,
while MFA Permanent Secretary Krit Garnjana-Goonchorn sits on
the advisory committee on foreign affairs. (Comment: Given
the plan for a transition in coming days to a new regime
under an interim constitution, with the formation of a new
cabinet reportedly imminent, it is unclear why the CDR needs
to establish these bodies, particularly as some cover
subjects reportedly outside of the realm of the CDR,s
planned successor body, the Security Council. One possible
explanation: the formation of these committees may be
intended to co-opt potential critics of the military coup --
or to publicly signal short-listed candidates for the next
cabinet. If so, it hasn't worked very well, since several
have indignantly refused to serve on the committees. End
Comment.)

BANGKOK 00005949 002 OF 002



MFA RUMORS
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5. (C) A regular MFA contact said that Senator Kraisak
Choonhavan, rumored as a longshop candidate for Foreign
Minister, is not well regarded among the MFA rank and file.
He suggested that most of his colleagues are hoping that
either Vitthaya Vejjajiva or Tej Bunnag will be named interim
Foreign Minister. Tej, former Thai Ambassador to Washington,
Beijing and Paris is regarded by many Thai diplomats as being
a serious bureaucrat capable of managing relations with both
the United States and China. Both Tej and Vitthaya were
placed on the foreign affairs advisory committee (see para
5); Kraisak was not.


6. (C) Our source also speculated that several senior
diplomats will be hurt by Thaksin's departure. Four who may
be affected include AMB Jullapong Nonsrichai, presently the
Thai AMB in Beijing, who was supposed to go to London as
Ambassador where he was expected to keep an eye on Thaksin's
interests; London DCM Bansarn Bunnag, former chief of staff
to Surakiart, who was slated to be the next AMB to Burma
(Note: He's in trouble for links to Thaksin and for picking
Thaksin up in London last week at the airport in a Thai
Embassy limo flying the Thai flag); Information Section DDG
Maris Sangiampol who had been seconded to Thaksin's staff for
some time and who was slated to become an Ambassador without
portfolio, and; Piraya Khempol who is former deputy Prime
Minister Surakiart Sathirathai's Chief of Staff and who was
also supposed to become a Minister without portfolio.

THANKS, AND HERE'S YOUR HAT
--------------


7. (U) Several well-known jurists who worked on the draft
interim constitution have officially withdrawn from any
advisory role for the CDR. Borwornsak Uwanno and his cousin
Wissanu Krea-Ngam are both highly respected for their legal
acumen, but have been strongly criticized for serving in the
Thaksin government. Both resigned in recent months, but
apparently not soon enough to salvage their reputations
completely. We understand that they will continue to assist
with legal advice, behind the scenes. Meechai Ruchuphan, who
helped draft previous post-coup constitutions, has also
withdrawn from any formal role, in response to public
criticism. The draft constitution is already being reviewed
by other leading academics, in any case.

THREE SCHOOLS BURNED
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8. (U) Three schools were burned in Kamphengphet province
(northwest of Bangkok) on the night of September 26.
Although the press speculates that this was some kind of
protest against the coup, our police contacts in the province
say they are still investigating the causes. (Comment:
Kamphengphet is not a hotbed of pro-Thaksin feeling, and
burning schools does not seem like the most obvious way to
show displeasure with the coup. The press reaction does
demonstrate, again, that fear of some kind of counter-coup is
quite widespread, despite the complete lack of opposition to
the coup so far. End comment.)

WHERE ARE THEY NOW?
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9. (C) Several sources confirm that former Defense Minister
Thamarak is "under the control of the CDR." According to an
MOD source, Thamarak is at his own home, and has been asked
to stay there.
BOYCE