THAI MFA PERMSEC CONFIDENT OF MEETING TWO WEEK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 005928

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

TREASURY PASS TO FRB SAN FRANCISCO/TERESA CURRAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/26/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM MOPS ASEC TH
SUBJECT: THAI MFA PERMSEC CONFIDENT OF MEETING TWO WEEK
DEADLINE

REF: A. BANGKOK 5908 (PREM ON TRANSITION)

B. BANGKOK 5894 (BORWORNSAK ON CONSTITUTION)

Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce, reason 1.4 (d).

SUMMARY
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1. (C) MFA Permanent Secretary Krit Garnjana-Goonchorn said
the King would sign Thailand's interim constitution on
September 29. In a September 26 meeting with the Ambassador,
Krit said this constitution would provide for the Council for
Democratic Reform (CDR) to become a new Security Council,
operating as a type of caretaker government until the
swearing-in of a civilian cabinet. The civilian Prime
Minister would be publicly known as early as the weekend of
September 30-October 1, but he and his full cabinet might not
be inaugurated until a week later. The Ambassador stressed
the importance of a transition to civilian government within
the CDR's self-imposed two week deadline. Krit said one of
the first acts of the new civilian government would be to
lift martial law. He acknowledged the legitimacy of USG
statements expressing disappointment with the coup, but hoped
the USG would take an encouraging tone to help Thailand set
itself back on a democratic path. End Summary.

TIME FRAME FOR TRANSITION
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2. (C) The Ambassador opened his September 26 call on MFA
Permanent Secretary Krit by mentioning that he had met
September 25 with Council for Democratic Reform (CDR -- the
council formerly known as CDRM) member General Winai and
stressed the importance of meeting the CDR's self-imposed two
week deadline for a transition to a civilian administration.
The Ambassador also described his phone conversation with
Privy Council President Prem Tinsulanonda on the subject (ref
A). Krit foresaw no problems meeting that deadline, saying
the CDR was "pretty confident" and had been working
diligently on transition issues. Krit noted CDR leader
General Sonthi had opened a meeting of the "phantom cabinet"
on the morning of September 26 by remarking that would be the
first and last meeting of the group.


3. (C) Krit said the King would sign the interim constitution
on Friday, September 29. At that time the CDR per se would
cease to exist. In its place would come into being a
"Security Council" (presumably composed of the CDR's members)
that would exist separate from Thailand's longstanding
National Security Council (which is under the Office of the
Prime Minister). The Security Council's activities would be
prescribed and limited by the interim constitution. During a
brief transition period, until the swearing-in of the new
cabinet (consisting of the PM plus 35 persons),the interim
constitution would provide for the Security Council to act as
a caretaker administration, although it would operate with
the very limited goal of keeping the government functioning;
the Security Council would be "even more minimal than a
caretaker government." Krit indicated it could take a week
between the promulgation of the interim constitution and the
swearing-in of the new cabinet, although he predicted that
the identity of the civilian Prime Minister would be made
public by the weekend of September 30-October 1, or, at the
latest, early in the week of October 2-6.


4. (C) One of the first acts of the new civilian Prime
Minister's administration would be to repeal marital law,
Krit said. (Note: Although the CDR has issued numerous
proclamations restricting civil liberties, it has never been
made clear exactly what "martial law" under the CDR entailed.
End Note.) Krit commented that General Sonthi had remarked
privately, "I don't know what it (martial law) is for,
anyway." After the inauguration of the new cabinet, Krit
said, the Security Council would "fade to the background,"
although still exercising certain limited functions. Krit
initially suggested waiting to see how the interim
constitution would define those functions, although when the
Ambassador shared a readout from constitution drafter
Borwornsak (ref B),Krit agreed that Borwornsak's description
(in which the CDR nominates the cabinet and retains emergency
powers to deal with a counter-coup or southern militancy)
tracked with his own understanding.

USG STATEMENTS
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5. (C) Krit acknowledged he could not take offense at
statements by USG officials who expressed disappointment over
the coup. However, he hoped for a positive tone in future
remarks. Thailand had stumbled while on the road to
democratization, he said, and now needed a helping hand to
help pull the Thais back up. (Comment: Krit did not indicate
clearly whether he viewed the coup as the stumble, or what
many considered the increasingly authoritarian methods of
Thaksin Shinawatra. End Comment.) It served no one's
interests to keep Thailand "in the diplomatic doghouse," and
Krit hoped that Thailand would be encouraged to resume its
former role as a leading country in Southeast Asia. Krit
also hoped that any announcement of a cutoff of American
assistance to Thailand would also take positive note of
actions taken by the Thais to restore civilian rule.


6. (C) Director General for American Affairs Nongnuth
Phethcaratana drew the Ambassador's attention to a September
20 statement by Senator Biden (available at www.senate.gov)
that not only criticized the coup (as a "setback for the
cause of democracy") but also made explicit references to the
King. Although Senator Biden's references were generally
positive, Nongnut believed it inappropriate to refer to the
King in such statements. Krit also suggested that the State
Department spokesman reprimand a journalist who made
insulting remarks about the King in State Department press
briefings. If a reprimand was not possible, Krit recommended
at least an explicit comment from the spokesman to the
journalist noting that the Department disapproved of his
"abusive" language.

FTAS
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7. (C) The Ambassador asked about a September 25 remark by
CDR member General Winai that the RTG would maintain its
policy on free trade agreements (septel). Krit said he
believed the reference was to the Thai-Japanese free trade
agreement, or perhaps to ongoing negotiations in an ASEAN
context -- not to the U.S.-Thailand FTA.

COMMENT
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8. (C) Krit appeared comfortable and confident that the CDR
would put Thailand back on the democratic path. However,
according to the timeline he described, he seems to believe
civilian rule begins with the promulgation of the interim
constitution, which will have transitional provisions
enabling the Security Council to act as a type of caretaker
government. The swearing-in of the new Prime Minister and
his cabinet may take place after the two-week mark.

BOYCE