MILITARY AND PRIME MINISTER FACE OFF OVER MILITARY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BANGKOK 005711

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/14/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINS PHUM MOPS ASEC TH
SUBJECT: MILITARY AND PRIME MINISTER FACE OFF OVER MILITARY
APPOINTMENTS, ALLEGED BOMB PLOT

REF: A. BANGKOK 5463

B. BANGKOK 5423

C. BANGKOK 5335

D. BANGKOK 5255

E. BANGKOK 4038

Classified By: CDA Alexander A. Arvizu, reason 1.4 (b) (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: The police have arrested more military
personnel from the controversial military Internal Security
Operation Command (ISOC) in connection with the alleged car
bomb assassination attempt against Prime Minister Thaksin
Shinawatra. Thai opinion is still very divided about whether
this was a real attempt to kill the PM, or a fabrication by
Thaksin or his supporters. Repeated and contradictory leaks
from police sources have undermined the credibility of the
investigation. One suspect in custody has apparently
confessed to a conspiracy to assassinate the PM, and said
that the group of ISOC officers was prepared to stage a coup
if the assassination attempt didn't work. However, the
confession has been greeted with skepticism, and there are
many competing theories about who is behind the car bomb.
Thaksin reportedly continues behind-the-scenes to press to
put "his" trusted men into important military positions,
presumably in response to the heightened threat to him posed
by the car bomb and the alleged military role in the
assassination attempt. High-ranking military officers are
fighting back with open criticism. The drawn-out conflict is
making some people nervous. A range of embassy military and
political contacts have taken on board our comments about the
consequences of unconstitutional action by the military; to a
person, they have reassured us that the military's patience
has not reached a breaking point. END SUMMARY.

ISOC ROLE
--------------


2. (C) Thai police have four suspects in custody in
connection with the alleged assassination attempt against the
Prime Minister; a fifth is free on bail. All the suspects
identified so far are from the Internal Security Operation
Command (ISOC). Although ISOC is staffed by military
personnel, it is not under the Defense Ministry, but rather
part of the Prime Minister's office, and the PM is its
director. ISOC's current role ostensibly is to focus on
fighting against narcotics and strengthening border security
(including in the South),but its concrete mission is
somewhat unclear. We understand that an effort to
"regularize" the status of ISOC was scrapped several years
ago, over concerns that ISOC might take on powers too broad,
reminiscent of a now-defunct agency with the same name that
fought against the Thai communists during the cold war.
ISOC's day-to-day operations were run by the Deputy Director,
General (ret.) Panlop Pinmanee. Panlop has a colorful
history: he fought in the Indochina conflict and boasts of
having been involved in RTG units that killed communists
during the 1970's. He was involved in a coup attempt against
General Prem in the 1980's. In April 2004, he was sacked from
his position coordinating the Southern strategy after
attacking the Krue Se mosque against the orders of his boss
-- one of the bloodiest incidents in the government's
anti-insurgency efforts in the South. In sum, Panlop -- who
remains popular, is a larger-than-life figure among some of
his military colleagues -- is a throwback to the old days
with his swagger, blunt pronouncements, and hard-line views.

TRUTH?
--------------


3. (C) Three of the suspects -- a major general, a colonel
and a lieutenant colonel -- have denied any knowledge of the
bombing attempt. The driver of the "bomb car" has made
confused statements which fall far short of a confession, but
do not clarify just what he was doing driving around a car
laden with explosives (ref C). One of the suspects, however,
has made a confession and a string of accusations that have
gotten extensive press coverage. Sgt-Major Chakrit -- who
goes by the nickname "Sgt. Giant" -- has reportedly said that
a group of ISOC officers (including an unnamed four-star
general, and about eight other officers) decided to "end the
Thaksin regime." If the bomb didn't work, according to press
reports, the conspirators planned to attack Thaksin with an
RPG or M79 grenade launcher. If that didn't work, then
they'd stage a coup, Chakrit reportedly told the police.
(Comment: ISOC would not appear to have the capability to
launch a coup. End comment.) Press reports of his

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statements raised expectations that there would be further
arrests of high-ranking officers soon. General Panlop
derided Chakrit as a "ding-dong" and the press have painted
him as a somewhat disreputable individual. Like many in the
military, Chakrit reportedly also works providing "security
for entertainment venues," allegedly for the notorious
General Trairong (see para 6). Senior police called a press
conference on September 11 to deny the widespread press
reports that they will shortly be making more arrests, and to
ask the press to stop publishing misleading information
(Comment: most of it apparently leaked by police sources.
End comment).


4. (C) From our contacts, we have heard a wide variety of
assessments, predictions and guesses, many of them much less
partisan than we might expect. A number of high officials,
not Thaksin fans, admit to uncertainty about whether the bomb
was a serious assassination attempt. Former Cabinet Secretary
Borwornsak (ref A) and Privy Councillor General Surayud (ref
B),both very knowledgeable insiders, were agnostic. Senior
TRT member Suranand -- one of the 'doves' rumored to be on
his way out of the party -- also took the middle ground,
expressing uncertainty about the origin of the bomb attempt
(ref D). A long-time politico and former Thaksin ally, now
on the outs with the PM, told us that the officers who were
arrested were in fact plotting to kill Thaksin with a car
bomb, but the plot still had a long way to go. Thaksin's
people found out about it, however, and threw together a fake
attempt and then arrested the "plotters."


5. (C) While many Thaksin opponents continue to dismiss the
bomb out of hand as a fabrication, some have pointed out that
Thaksin did seem to be genuinely frightened by the event,
which argued for it being a real assassination attempt, or,
perhaps, a fabrication set up without his knowledge.
Spokesman for the opposition People's Alliance for Democracy,
Suriyasai Katasila, somewhat surprisingly asserted that he
thought it was a real bomb and a real attempt to kill the PM.
He suggested, however, that it was a criminal element that
was behind the attempt, noting that Thaksin had made many
enemies by championing the war on drugs and efforts to
disrupt the illegal lottery. Like almost everyone who thinks
it was a real assassination attempt, he expressed concern for
the PM's family. He thought that Thaksin's security guards
could probably protect the PM, but said, "Thaksin loves his
wife and children very much" and would be more worried about
the implied threat to them.


6. (C) One journalist contact has raised the possibility
that the evil mastermind behind the plot was the infamous
"Sae Ice," General Trairong Intharathat, an advisor to the
Defense Minister and a member of "Class 10" (the officers who
studied with Thaksin in the pre-Cadet Academy - ref C). "Sae
Ice" has been identified as one of the key figures in the
payoff to small parties to run in the April elections --
actions that have put Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party in
danger of dissolution, and which might have personal
consequences for him. He is also a notorious figure, linked
to protection rackets, gambling, and other money-making
extracurricular activities. (Comment: a number of senior
military officers are believed to profit from shady
activities, but General Trairong seems particularly tied in
to underworld activities. End comment.) It's unclear whether
there is any actual evidence against him in the car bomb
plot, or whether he just seems like a likely candidate under
the circumstances. According to this scenario, General
Trairong is paying off "Sgt. Giant" to confess and make the
bomb attempt look more plausible, thus winning sympathy for
the PM and weakening the position of the military leaders
opposing Thaksin.


7. (C) A TRT contact predicted to us last week that the
investigation would lead to the arrest of a 'four-star
general' and that "a businessman who had been disadvantaged"
financed the attack. (Comment: in Thailand, crooked police
and military are sometimes hired as thugs and hitmen. End
comment.) Shortly thereafter, prominent and controversial
businessman Prachai Leophairatana publicly denied any
involvement in the bomb. Poloff met last week with Prachai,
now secretary-general of a new political party. Prachai said
that he had issued the denial, even though he had not been
named in the press, because some media reports seemed to be
aimed at implicating him. Prachai harbors a deep grudge
against Thaksin; he had expected the government to help him
retain control of his Thai Petrochemical Industry (TPI),
which was in financial straits after the 1997 crash. For

BANGKOK 00005711 003 OF 004


good reason, he was dubbed Thailand's "most recalcitrant
debtor" and fought a long battle to retain control of the
company, which he finally lost earlier this year. He is
widely believed to be a top funder of the anti-Thaksin
People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) and other opposition
activities. We discussed this particular allegation with a
long-time expat journalist here who knew Prachai and his case
well. After initially dismissing the idea of any businessman
being behind the bomb, the journalist said, "Actually,
Prachai is the only one crazy enough to do something like
this. And if it was him, he'll keep trying."

CONSEQUENCES
--------------


8. (C) The first consequence felt from the alleged bombing
attempt was on the 'military reshuffle,' the annual exercise
in which military officers are rotated to their new
positions, including the top jobs (ref C). Thaksin has
pressed hard to put "his" supporters (mostly from his "class
10" classmates) into key jobs, according to a wide variety of
sources. The warfare between the military and the PM over
this issue is out in the open, with play-by-play reports in
the press on the conflict. The military reshuffle has been a
source of tension in the past when Thaksin wanted to help out
certain candidates for jobs (for example, when his cousin
became Army Chief in 2004),but most contacts say that the
conflict has never before been this open and heated.


9. (C) Privy Councillor Prem Tinsulanonda, top of the Thaksin
"enemies list," has also been drawn into the fray. After the
bomb was discovered, a small group of protesters appeared
outside his house, with signs asking Prem to "save Thaksin's
life." The strange little protest seemed designed to
implicate Prem somehow in the bomb scheme, and in turn
aroused a lot of indignation among Prem's supporters.


10. (C) The military is also put into a tough position by the
continued leaks from the investigation alleging higher level
military involvement in an assassination attempt. Relations
between the police and military have not generally been very
good here. Thaksin's background as a police official has led
him to favor the police (for example, when he decided to
give them the lead in dealing with security in the South.)
Now the police are the vehicle for daily accusations against
vaguely identified military officers ("Maj. General S,"
"General P," and "Col. B" are repeatedly cited as
conspirators by the press, in addition to the suspects
already arrested). This has prompted some speculation that
the military will eventually feel like they have to "do
something" about both the reshuffle and the bomb accusations.
Normal troop movements earlier this week set off a brief
flurry of coup rumors, for example, which still resonate in
the local press. Thaksin's protracted absence has also raised
concerns. He did not return from the ASEM meeting in
Helsinki, instead visiting his daughter in London. He will
go on to the NAM in Havana, and then the UNGA. The
government spokesman yesterday indicated that Thaksin might
not return after that, but could stay abroad for longer. A
TRT source told the press that the PM's absence was to "help
deter a military coup." (Comment: although it's unclear how
his absence deters a coup, rather than facilitates one. End
comment.)

COMMENT
--------------


11. (C) Talking to military contacts and academics, we
mostly hear the same analysis about the military's options.
Despite some jittery nerves in Bangkok about the bad blood
between the military (and the Palace) on one hand, and the
police (and Thaksin) on the other, virtually everyone with
whom we have spoken does not believe the situation has gotten
even close to the point where the military would act.
Embassy officials continue to make clear to military and
political contacts that any such move by the military would
have serious consequences, and would be very
counterproductive. We are encouraged by the views expressed
by important figures like Privy Councillor Surayud, perhaps
the most respected retired senior military officer, who
expressed faith in the political process, and who clearly
opposed any kind of coup attempt by the military (ref B).
Army Commander General Sonthi has also reassured us (ref D)
and publicly denied any possibility of a military coup.


12. (C) The bomb investigation remains troubling. As the

BANGKOK 00005711 004 OF 004


collection of theories above demonstrates, the borders
between politics, military, business, and crime are not so
clearly drawn here. The police handling of the case, which
has seen multiple, often contradictory rumors from "police
sources" in the press, has raised concerns that, whatever
really happened, the case is now being manipulated for
political purposes. As the various rumors recounted above
show, no one feels very certain about what is really behind
the bomb: a warning? a fabrication? or a serious -- if
bungled and borderline comical -- assassination attempt?
Given the way the investigation is proceeding, it seems quite
possible that we will never know for sure.
ARVIZU