ELECTION COMMISSION SAYS: ELECTIONS SOON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 005430

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/04/2016
TAGS: PGOV TH
SUBJECT: ELECTION COMMISSION SAYS: ELECTIONS SOON

REF: BANGKOK 5072 - THAI POL UPDATE: SCHISMS AND

UNCERTAINTIES

BANGKOK 00005430 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Political Counselor Susan M. Sutton, Reasons 1.4 (B) (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY. In a meeting with Deputy Secretary-General
Prawing and Director Bunyakiat of the Election Commission of
Thailand (ECT),they predicted that the October 15 election
will not take place until the third week of November, at the
earliest, due to the delay in new Election Commissioners (EC)
selection. The two top-ranking ECT bureaucrats did not
defend the actions of the former EC in the previous April 2
election, and admitted that the Thai people may lack
confidence in the election process. They stipulated that
though there may not be any technical problems in the
upcoming elections, factors such as whether Thaksin will
declare his intentions to be PM again and the PAD's reaction
to it will complicate the process. They revealed that while
the Constitutional Court is currently facing pressure to hand
down a decision on whether the TRT and Democrat Party would
be dissolved before the election, they do not believe this
will take place because it would cause "too big of a mess."
End summary.


ELECTION ADMINISTRATION 101
--------------


2. (SBU) PolCouns met with Deputy Secretary-General Prawing
and Director Bunyakiat of the ECT on September 5, 2006
regarding the status of the upcoming elections currently
scheduled for October 15 (Ref A). They confirmed that the
schedule for the new election would likely be changed by the
soon-to-be-selected Election Commissioners (EC). A special
Senate session to select the new EC expected for September
8-11, and a new commission could be in place by
mid-September. The two bureaucrats said that the re-election
may be delayed for at least a month in order to meet all the
administrative requirements. Prawing and Bunyakiat estimated
that the new elections will have to be postponed until the
third week of November, at the earliest. (Note:
Time-sensitive logistics such as candidate registration and
budget allocation cannot take place until the new EC is
formed. End note.)


A CRISIS OF CONFIDENCE
--------------


3. (C) While speaking about the April 2 elections and the
controversies that followed, the two bureaucrats made no
attempt to defend the actions of the old EC. They
distinguished that the EC is responsible for interpreting the
election laws and formulate policies while they, the
administrative side, only carry out the policies and "oversee
the everyday management of the elections." They admitted
that some Thai may have lost faith in the election process
because of what happened in the last election. Prawing and
Bunyakiat agreed that this is why though they would like to
see the new election held as soon as possible to address the
current political impasse. At the same time, it would
necessarily have to be delayed if it were to hold any
legitimacy in the people's eyes.


COMPLICATING FACTORS
--------------


4. (C) Prawing and Bunyakiat indicated that, although they
foresee no technical issues to become a problem, two factors
may complicate the upcoming election: the question over
whether caretaker PM Thaksin will announce his intentions to
become prime minister again, and the People's Alliance for
Democracy (PAD)'s reaction to Thaksin's decision. If Thaksin
remains coy on his future plans, the PAD may ramp up
anti-Thaksin activities leading up to the elections. When
asked about the court cases to dissolve both the
Thai-Rak-Thai (TRT) and Democrat Party for violating election
laws in the April 2 election, the two ECT officials admitted
that it would be a "major problem" if the parties were
dissolved prior to the elections. Technically, it would not
be difficult to handle, as the EC could just delay the
elections to give the homeless party members time to join
another party. (Note: Thai law demands that an individual
must be a member of a party for at least 90 days before he or
she can run on that party's ticket. End note.) However,
they both reiterated that elections should be held soon for
the sake of political and economic stability. They also
revealed that there is currently "political pressure" on the

BANGKOK 00005430 002.2 OF 002


Constitutional Court to hand down a decision on the party
dissolution cases prior to the elections, but they concluded
that this will not happen because it would create "too big of
a mess" for the EC.
BOYCE