Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BANGKOK5255
2006-08-28 10:01:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bangkok
Cable title:  

CABINET MEMBER DISCUSSES THAI POLITICAL SITUATION

Tags:  PGOV PREL MOPS ASEC TH 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO2576
PP RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHBK #5255/01 2401001
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 281001Z AUG 06
FM AMEMBASSY BANGKOK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1225
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS PRIORITY
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY 6006
RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON PRIORITY 1501
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHHMUNA/USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 005255 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/28/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS ASEC TH
SUBJECT: CABINET MEMBER DISCUSSES THAI POLITICAL SITUATION

REF: BANGKOK 5204 (CAR BOMB DISCOVERED)

Classified By: Political Officer David R. Greenberg, reason 1.4 (d).

SUMMARY
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 005255

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/28/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS ASEC TH
SUBJECT: CABINET MEMBER DISCUSSES THAI POLITICAL SITUATION

REF: BANGKOK 5204 (CAR BOMB DISCOVERED)

Classified By: Political Officer David R. Greenberg, reason 1.4 (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Cabinet member Suranand Vejjajiva told us on August 28
that he sought to encourage Prime Minister Thaksin to
withdraw from politics as soon as possible, but others around
Thaksin urged him to continue fighting his political
opponents. Suranand, Minister Attached to the Prime
Minister's Office and a member of the Thai Rak Thai (TRT)
Executive Board, believed TRT would need time to adjust to
Thaksin's withdrawal, but the party's image remained
sufficiently positive that faction leaders would prefer
remaining within TRT rather than defecting. Suranand
predicted with confidence that TRT, with or without Thaksin,
would win a majority in the coming election, which could take
place as late as early 2007. Admitting he did not know
whether the August 24 car bomb incident was a
government-manufactured provocation or part of a genuine
assassination attempt, Suranand characterized the military as
split, but he claimed both the military and the Palace were
dedicated to resolving the current situation through
democratic means. He urged that the USG remain on the
sidelines as a neutral observer. End Summary.

CAR BOMB
--------------


2. (C) On August 28, we called on Minister Attached to the
Prime Minister's Office Suranand Vejjajiva. Opening with
reference to the August 24 discovery of a purported car bomb
near Prime Minister Thaksin's residence (reftel),Suranand
said he did not know whether the bomb was genuine. He
declined to speculate on the matter, noting that there were
"too many rumors in Bangkok." He said national media
coverage of the incident reflected Thaksin's lack of
popularity with the Bangkok elite, and he bemoaned the
government's inability to get its message out to the
citizenry. However, Suranand promised TRT would make a
concerted public relations effort and offer a more detailed
platform than its principal rival, the Democratic Party.

DEMOCRATIC FRAMEWORK RESPECTED, FOREIGN ROLE UNWELCOME

-------------- --------------


3. (C) Suranand acknowledged that the car bomb incident --
which triggered the dismissal from the Internal Security
Operation Command (ISOC) of Major General (ret.) Panlop
Pinmanee -- had the potential to further aggravate
factionalism within the Thai military. Military officers
were as susceptible to rumor-mongering as the rest of Thai
officialdom. However, he noted the military now consisted of
professionals who would want any political change to take
place through democratic mechanisms. The Palace, too, was
committed to the democratic process. We welcomed this
assurance, noting the USG's strong support for democracy and
our neutrality in the current political wrangling. Suranand
said it was critical for the USG to remain on the sidelines,
as any perceived foreign interference would provoke a strong
backlash.

THAKSIN SHOULD DECIDE NOW
--------------


4. (C) Given the current political climate, Suranand
expressed his personal preference for Thaksin to withdraw
from politics, at least temporarily. If his successor(s)
were to mismanage the country, Suranand noted, the citizenry
might well call for Thaksin's return sometime in the future.
Whatever Thaksin's decision, he should announce it as soon as
possible, because TRT would need time to adjust. The
current, vague state of affairs would doom TRT's prospects in
Bangkok, Suranand said, predicting the party would fail to
garner even a single seat in Bangkok under status quo
conditions. If Thaksin were to take a clear stand, however,
TRT might win 10-20 of Bangkok's 36 seats. Suranand stated
with confidence that TRT's strength in the countryside would
provide the party with a majority in the House of
Representatives. However, he admitted a weak showing in
Bangkok would seriously undercut the Prime Minister's
legitimacy.


5. (C) We asked whether, holding a majority in the House and
facing continuing criticism from his opponents, Thaksin would

BANGKOK 00005255 002 OF 002


easily forsake the advantages associated with formal
political power. Suranand acknowledged that the choice was
difficult for Thaksin, but he (Suranand) felt that holding
the premiership would not affect the eventual court rulings,
and Thaksin should conduct this struggle as a private
citizen. When we asked whether any person or institution
might be able to persuade Thaksin's opponents to moderate
their rhetorical and legal efforts against him in exchange
for his voluntary withdrawal from politics, Suranand said he
had been trying to convince Thaksin to pursue this type of
deal. However, others around Thaksin (NFI) were pushing him
to take a more confrontational approach and to intimidate his
opponents.

EFFECT OF THAKSIN'S HYPOTHETICAL WITHDRAWAL
--------------


6. (C) TRT could survive despite losing Thaksin as its formal
leader, Suranand said. The party had built a popular brand
that did not rely wholly on Thaksin's image, and a majority
of Thais found TRT's policies appealing. Faced with a
choice, most TRT faction leaders would understand they would
be more successful standing for election as TRT candidates
rather than as members of a new, unknown party. Suranand
specifically dismissed as unimportant the recent defection of
former TRT faction leader Sanoh Thianthong. Nevertheless, it
would take time and effort for faction leaders to reach a
consensus in favor of the next party leader. Suranand
declined to specify whom faction leaders might coalesce
around, but he noted that the faction leaders' candidate
would likely not be the same person Thaksin would be inclined
to select as his successor. (Comment: Suranand's comment was
consistent with a reasonably widespread perception that
Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak is best positioned
to hold TRT together in the event of Thaksin's withdrawal;
TRT Deputy Spokesman Pimuk Simaroj recently told us that,
absent Thaksin, only Somkid could keep the party together,
but Thaksin reportedly resents Somkid's ambition. End
Comment.)


7. (C) When asked to comment on TRT relations with Chart Thai
party leader Banharn Silapa-Archa, Suranand characterized
Banharn as an unprincipled opportunist trying to gain
influence by wielding a swing vote. Suranand dismissed
popular speculation that Thaksin might support Banharn as the
next Prime Minister, noting Thaksin would look first to large
faction leaders within TRT. Thaksin's backing Banharn for
the position would deal a serious blow to TRT. In an acerbic
aside, however, Suranand quipped that Banharn nevertheless
had a better chance at winning the premiership than
Suranand's cousin, Democratic Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva.
Abhisit "still has a lot to learn" about Thai politics,
Suranand said.

ELECTION TIMING
--------------


8. (C) Suranand hoped aloud that the next national
legislative election could take place on October 15,
consistent with the current schedule. However, he
acknowledged the election would likely be delayed, saying it
might even slip to early 2007. (Comment: A delay in the
election date is generally seen as favoring the opposition,
as legal cases against Thaksin will move forward in coming
months. However, Democratic Party Secretary General Suthep
Thaugsuban recently told us he worried that his party lacked
the funds for a prolonged campaign. End Comment.)

COMMENT
--------------


9. (C) Suranand appeared sincere in his assessment of the
current situation and troubled by the absence of a scenario
offering Thaksin an easy exit from politics and escape from
the current turmoil. As TRT's founder and leader, Thaksin
plays a key role in keeping the party united; but he also
threatens to drag TRT down with him, as political attacks
focused on the Prime Minister continue. Suranand represents
the "dove" faction, which is encouraging Thaksin to take a
break, even if it results in fewer seats in the next
parliament for TRT. However, all signs point to the hawks,
telling Thaksin to stay and fight, as being close to the
Prime Minister now.
BOYCE