BGEN ALLEN'S MEETING WITH NSC SECRETARY GENERAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 000351

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

OSD/ISA FOR ALLEN/POWERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/16/2016
TAGS: PREL PREF PINR PTER PGOV TH BURMA GPOI DPRK
SUBJECT: BGEN ALLEN'S MEETING WITH NSC SECRETARY GENERAL
WINAI

Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES ALEX A. ARVIZU FOR REASONS 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) In his meeting with visiting OSD/ISA Principal
Director for Asian and Pacific Affairs BGen John Allen, Thai
National Security Council Secretary General Winai Phattiyakul
outlined the RTG's strategic threat outlook, Thailand and
ASEAN's frustration with the suprise move of the Burmese
capital, RTG thinking on refugees, and recent RTG progress in
reducing violence in the South. Winai responded to Gen.
Allen's briefing on recent USG efforts to improve military
relations with China, saying, "that is really a relief for us
smaller countries in the region." End Summary.

STRATEGIC THREAT PICTURE
--------------


2. (C) On January 16, visiting Department of Defense OSD/ISA
Principal Director for Asian and Pacific Affairs Brigadier
General John R. Allen, accompanied by the DCM, met with Thai
National Security Council Secretary General Winai
Phattiyakul. Following BGen Allen's briefing on an upcoming
Royal Thai Armed Forces trip to the Joint Forces Command in
March, Winai explained that, in dealing with the Thai
military, it was useful to understand Thai political leaders'
strategic threat framework. Terrorism remains the primary
threat, followed by transnational crime and low-intensity
conflict (LIC). LIC "is what we have to deal with in the
next century," whether participating in UN or ally-led peace
keeping operations, or dealing with a host of other security
concerns in Southeast Asia. For example, Thailand has not
settled its borders with its neighbors, and this may yet lead
to tension. Moreover, the nature of Thailand's
neighbors--poorer and less politically stable--could
challenge Thailand's security as well. In order to meet
these challenges, the Thai military must restructure its
forces into a "smaller, smarter, more mobile" model.

BURMA
--------------


3. (C) When asked about the Burmese government's recent
suprise decision to relocate their capital, Winai confirmed
that the RTG had been surprised by the move as well. This
opaque decision on the part of the junta in Rangoon had
caused consternation within the recent ASEAN leaders meeting
in Kuala Lumpur. Winai explained that the military
leadership in Rangoon had four possible reasons for the move:
fear of a U.S. military strike on the capital (though Winai
noted that the move doesn't mean much given U.S. military
capabilities),a desire for increased control over the
country from a more central location, superstition (the
generals give much consideration to astrology and numerology)
and, finally, a desire by senior General Than Shwe to develop
his hometown, where the new capital will be located.
According to Winai, the Burmese leadership may use the
upcoming Armed Forces Day in March to show the new capital to
some foreign Ambassadors and Defense Attaches.

BURMESE, NORTH KOREAN AND HMONG REFUGEES
--------------


4. (C) Winai denied that the move of the Burmese capital has
resulted in increased numbers of Burmese refugees on the Thai
border. The population in the border camps remains stable.
Good RTG-USG-UNHCR cooperation aside, Winai remains saddened
by the reality of life for these refugees. The younger
generations have never lived outside of the camps. "These
people have no future." According to Winai, the RTG is
considering expanded educational assistance to these
refugees, with the hope that, in 20-30 years, these refugees
can serve as a key group in a newly revitalized Burma.


5. (C) Winai expressed frustration with the host of other
refugee issues that Thailand faces. The RTG is "not happy"
with the trickle of North Korean refugees that cross over
from Laos and RTG provincial officials have been instructed
to find and arrest them. Hmong refugees from Laos are even
bigger problem, with at least 5,000 having crossed over into
Petchaboon province in the last year, apparently hoping that
a new U.S. resettlement program would be in the offing.
According to Winai, the RTG may have to repatriate them
little-by-little to send the message that Thailand cannot
take them. "We hope that our friends will understand when we
have to take strong action."

SOUTH
--------------


6. (C) Winai expressed appreciation for USG understanding
that the Thai South is a domestic issue. The situation there
is "a little better." Incidents of violence were down in
December--only 30 in that month compared to an average of
about 150 in October and November. Part of this downturn may
be due to the serious flooding in the area, however.
According to Winai, the RTG is increasingly successful in its
efforts to understand the separatist movement, arrest the
right people and disrupt the violence. Local citizens are
providing much more information to authorities, which has led
to the arrest of several bomb makers and "commandos." Some
people are "happy to be arrested," because it allows them to
cease working for the separatist cause without fear of
reprisal from the insurgents.


7. (C) Based on the success of civil affairs programs and
this shift in local thinking, the RTG is considering drafting
a special "plea-bargaining" law that would provide increased
incentives to those people who turn themselves in. Though
short of an actual amnesty program, Winai suggested that the
latter may be under consideration as well. When asked why
the local population was cooperating with the government now,
Winai explained that more and more southerners are starting
to understand that the violence was not improving their
lives. On a side note, Winai commented that cooperation with
Malaysia continues to improve, in part because Malay
officials now understand that the flight of 131 Thai Muslims
to Malaysia last year was not a legitimate refugee issue, but
a plot concocted by separatist leaders to generate attention
to the situation in the South.

GPOI, CHINA
--------------


8. (C) Gen Allen briefed Winai on the Global Peacekeeping
Operations Initiative (GPOI) and USG efforts to improve
relations with China, including our expanded defense
relations which, in the short term will emphasize military
education. Winai expressed strong interest in this issue
saying "that is really a relief for us smaller countries in
the region."


9. (U) BGen Allen has cleared this message.
ARVIZU