Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BANGKOK2391
2006-04-25 10:14:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bangkok
Cable title:  

INCHING TOWARD A PARLIAMENT

Tags:  PGOV PHUM TH SNAP 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L BANGKOK 002391 

SIPDIS

C O R R E C T E D C O P Y - DATES CHANGED IN PARA 1 AND PARA 5

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/24/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM TH SNAP
SUBJECT: INCHING TOWARD A PARLIAMENT

Classified By: Political Counselor Susan M. Sutton 1.4 (b) (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L BANGKOK 002391

SIPDIS

C O R R E C T E D C O P Y - DATES CHANGED IN PARA 1 AND PARA 5

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/24/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM TH SNAP
SUBJECT: INCHING TOWARD A PARLIAMENT

Classified By: Political Counselor Susan M. Sutton 1.4 (b) (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: The April 23 "rerun" of the elections for
MP gave 17 more seats to the ruling Thai Rak Thai party, 9
seats to "microparties" and left 13 seats unfilled when
single candidates did not meet the 20 percent minimum. In
one constituency, voting could not be held when the election
commission refused to work (reftel); results of the delayed
vote are expected by tomorrow. The key to winning was to
have an opponent - only 5 candidates running unopposed got
more than the 20 percent minimum. The Election Commission
has announced one more round of voting on April 29, and is
permitting new candidates to register on April 26 and 27.
Depending on how many more microparty candidates come out of
the woodwork, the EC may be able to whittle down the number
of empty seats still further. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) After another grueling round of elections, there are
still 13 unfilled seats in the Parliament. (All results are
based on press reports, since the EC has not announced
official results, but the numbers are probably basically
correct). TRT picked up 17 more seats. This included two
re-runs in the central part of the country; in both of these
districts, TRT narrowly outpolled the "no" vote. In 5
constituencies where it was running unopposed, including 4 in
the South, TRT got past the twenty percent minimum (just
barely in several cases) although it did not outpoll "no
vote" plus spoiled ballots. In the other constituencies, TRT
had opponents and so was able to win, but in many cases, with
low support. In Phukhet, for example, TRT won with 8,000
votes, but there were 30,000 "no votes." In Songkhla, TRT
won one seat with 8,600 votes vs. 50,000 "no votes." The key
to winning was to have an opponent, and thus evade the 20
percent minimum.


3. (C) The new parliament will also have an opposition. 9
microparties won seats in the second round, including all the
constituencies in Krabi and one seat each in Phetchaburi and
Prachuab Khiri Khan (the most northerly southern provinces.)
The Phlang Prachachon party won 5 seats (in Krabi and Trang);
The People's Party for Debt Forgiveness won three (in
Narathiwat, Phetchaburi and Phatthalung) and Prachakon Thai
won one (in Prachuab). They will join the one non-TRT member
to win in the first round, a "Debt Forgiveness" party member
from Nakhon Si Thammarat (who got less than 4,000 votes to
beat a TRT opponent.) The other parties' platforms are not
well-known yet, but the earlier winner from the "Debt
Forgiveness" party told the press that he wanted the
government to stop funding megaprojects and use the money to
pay off rural debt instead.


4. (C) This leaves 13 unfilled seats in the southern
provinces. TRT has taken taken most of the seats in the far
south (Narathiwat, Yala and Songkhla) in almost every case by
beating a microparty opponent. Two seats in Pattani will be
contested in the next round, with the rest of the 13
scattered around the South.


5. (C) The Election Commission announced Monday evening that
it would hold a final round of votes on Saturday April 29, and
it would re-open registration for new candidates on Wednesday
and Thursday. This last stroke from the EC might enable it
to fill all or almost all the constituency seats. There will
be almost no time for challenges to these candidates before
Sunday's vote. Even if the microparty candidates are later
disqualified, as hundreds of would-be candidates have been so
far, it may not matter much. Once the vote if over and the EC
has certified the results, the parliament can be seated and
proceed with business. Even if a candidate is subsequently
disqualified, the worst likely result is a by-election,
conducted safely after the Parliament is in session. The new
parliament will still come up short, as TRT won all the party
list seats, but is one person short of the 100 required,
after one candidate joined the monkhood. The Constitutional
Court will probably still have to rule on the opening of the
truncated parliament, but the fewer the vacant seats, the
more palatable it will be to allow the Parliament to open.

ARVIZU