THAILAND POLITICAL UPDATE - RESULTS, RESULTS, COME

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 002124

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/10/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM TH SNAP
SUBJECT: THAILAND POLITICAL UPDATE - RESULTS, RESULTS, COME
AND GET THEM!

Classified By: Political Counselor Susan M. Sutton reason 1.4 (b) (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: The Election Commission (EC) has not yet
released official election results, more that one week after
election day. The press have carried unofficial results for
the April 2 elections, declaring the Thai Rak Thai (TRT)
Party the winner of the party-list candidates and confirming
that 39 constituencies would hold by-elections on April 23.
Candidate registrations for this second round of elections
took place over the weekend, and TRT candidates who failed to
reach 20% support during the first go will now face opponents
from other microparties. There are at least 11
constituencies in the South in which TRT candidates will run
unopposed, making it almost impossible for the election to
have a successful outcome. Meanwhile, controversies swirl
over both the April 2 election and the April 23 repeat
voting. The Democrat Party is crying foul over the
"mis-positioning" of voting booths, the registration of new
candidates, and the subsequent "constituency-hopping" by six
microparties during candidate registration. They and the PAD
have filed complaints with the Administrative Court and some
even hope to have the elections annulled. The Administrative
Court may announce a decision on registration of additional
candidates as early as April 12. Altogether, these are
significant obstacles to the seating of a new Parliament by
early May. End Summary.


ROUND ONE
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2. (U) The Election Commission has not released official
election results from the April 2 polling. Responding to
repeated inquiries, they have said only that they are
carefully checking the results. They have already announced
the need for a complete re-vote in Samuk Sakhon, a province
close to Bangkok, where the number of ballots and the number
of voters do not match, Scattered press accounts have
alleged similar discrepancies in other places, but no firm
information is yet available.


3. (U) In the Thai system, voters cast two ballots, one for
a constituency race (400 seats),and one for the national
"party list" (100 seats). Attention is focused particularly
on the party list vote, which was seen as the closest measure
of Thai Rak Thai (TRT) and Thaksin support. The press
accounts of the results differ as to the raw numbers, as well
as showing apparent arithmetic mistakes, as some of the
numbers do not add up as presented. On April 6, the press
carried unofficial results of the party list vote, based on a
press conference given by an Election Commissioner. Until the
Election commission provides official results, these are the
best numbers we have:

PARTY LIST (millions) (Percent)
Total voters 29.16 (64.5 of total eligible
voters)

TRT Party list 16.20 (55.8)
"no-vote" votes 9.10 (31)
Spoiled ballots 1.78 ( 6)
Other small parties 1.72 ( 5)

(Note: the four elements listed do not total 29.16 million.
These are presented as reported.)


4. (U) A separate press report, not sourced directly to the
Election Commission and of unknown origin, gave the following
results for the constituency race:

CONSTITUENCY (millions) (Percent)
Total voters 28.77 (63.7 percent of total eligible)

TRT Candidates 15.4 (53.5)
"no-vote" 9.2 (31.9)
spoiled ballots 3.5 (12.2)

This source did not list a result for smaller parties, but
based on the above, we can estimate:

Other small parties (est.).67 ( 2.3)

ROUND TWO
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5. (SBU) 38 re-votes are required across 16 provinces, mostly
in the South, but including two in the Central region. In
addition to the repeat voting in Samuk Sakhon, one additional
repeat vote will be held in Nonthaburi because all of its
candidates were disqualified before the April 2 race. The
high number of spoiled ballots is widely reported to reflect
additional protest votes against the ruling TRT and the PM,
with many ballots defaced with expressions from the merely
rude to the outright obscene. Many were also reportedly left
blank, perhaps by voters confused by the redesigned ballot,
which had moved the "no vote" block to a different part of
the form. In last year's election, 2.9 percent of the party
list ballots were spoiled, and 6 percent of the constituency
-- in each case, less than half of the rate this year.


PLEASE DON'T RUN...
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6. (C) Candidate registrations over the weekend for the
by-elections closed with 94 candidates running in 39
constituencies. As of April 11, there are at least 11
constituencies in the South having a sole TRT candidate
running again on April 23. (Comment: The number of sole TRT
candidate constituencies may increase as the week progresses
as the EC checks each candidate his or her qualifications.
End Comment.) Would-be microparty candidates in the southern
provinces of Songkhla and Phuket were greeted by hoards of
people outside the local election offices - some kneeling and
"kowtow-ing" - pleading for them abstain from registering for
the elections. While the crowd reportedly succeeded in
keeping new candidates from registering in four of the
constituencies in Songkhla, other candidates who did register
were sent off with verbal abuse from the crowd.

BRING IN THE REFEREES:
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7. (C) There has been remarkably little concern in the
public about the long delay in the release of official
election results. This may be, in part, due to the many
challenges to the vote and attempts to have the entire
process either blocked or annulled. Below are a selection
of the growing number of cases being brought to the courts
regarding the election.

RIGHT TO SECRECY


8. (U) The Democrat Party (DP) has filed a complaint against
the EC with the Administrative Court for violating Section
105 of the Constitution, which guarantees a person the right
to direct suffrage and secret balloting. The DP maintains
that the EC "mis-positioned" the voting booths, enabling the
election officials to see how a person voted while at the
booth. (The booths were positioned so that the voter's back
was to the polling station, rather than having his back to
the wall.) One Democrat speculated that the Administrative
Court might annul the elections over this issue. (Comment:
This seems unlikely, but it is getting hard to rule out
anything in this unprecedented situation. End Comment.) The
EC announced yesterday that it will revert to back to the
previous arrangement for the April 19 Senate elections.
Although none of our observers saw anyone monitoring voters,
the position of the booth clearly permitted such monitoring
in some places, including a few where even we could see the
ballot papers being marked. International poll monitoring
organization ANFREL circulated a video in which the cameras
clearly recorded the votes of several prominent figures,
including the PM's wife (no surprise -- she voted for TRT.)
The People's Alliance for Democracy reportedly is also
petitioning the Administrative Court calling for the
elections to be annulled, based on the same shortcomings.

RIGHT TO REGISTER NEW CANDIDATES


9. (U) The DP also filed an objection to the Administrative
Court over the EC's decision to register new candidates for
the rerun election on April 23. The DP maintains that this
decision must be implemented by a royal decree, and not
simply a order by the EC. They also claim that the EC cannot
prepare the re-voting in constituencies before it has even
announced the results of the initial polling, since it is not
yet "official" that the revote is needed. The EC claims it
has the right to order such adjustments in procedure in order
to have a successful outcome to the polling.

CONSTITUENCY-HOPPING


10. (U) The DP found that six of the microparties in twelve
constituencies "hopped" from their original registered
constituency on April 2 to another during the candidate
registrations for the April 23 round. They claim that the
candidates "hopped" to constituencies where the TRT party
candidate would otherwise run unopposed, thus showing that
they are not real candidates, but are only running to help
TRT evade the 20 percent rule. There does not seem to be any
legal obstacle to this practice, however.

COMMENT
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11. (C) The troubles faced by this election are not over
yet. The long delay in announcing results is a source of
concern, but many may see the results as moot, given
Thaksin's political "break" and the unclear path forward to
seating a Parliament resulting from this vote. Despite the
opposition suspicions of the EC, it has made a number of
decisions that ran counter to TRT interests, most importantly
the disqualification of microparty candidates in many places.
However, the EC's efforts to finish the election process,
one way or another, tend to be seen as benefiting TRT. The
Administrative Court is one of the few independent bodies
that still has any reputation for impartiality, and its
decisions could have a big impact. The ruling on permitting
the registration of new candidates may come as soon as April


12. Although we do not believe that the voting booths were
positioned with the intent to intimidate voters, this simple
mistake may be one of the shortcomings of the election which
is easiest to prove and litigate, and therefore most
damaging. End comment.

BOYCE