Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BANGKOK1546
2006-03-14 00:01:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bangkok
Cable title:  

DELPHIC ORACLES AND BLACK MAGIC - THAILAND UPDATE

Tags:  PGOV PHUM ASEC TH TRT 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 001546 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/12/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM ASEC TH TRT
SUBJECT: DELPHIC ORACLES AND BLACK MAGIC - THAILAND UPDATE
MARCH 13

REF: A. BANGKOK 01537 (OPPOSITION SELLS)

B. BANGKOK 01445 (MORE CALLS FOR THAKSIN'S
RESIGNATION)

C. BANGKOK 01475 (THAI SNAP REGISTRATION ENDS)

D. BANGKOK 00959 (CONSTITUTIONAL COURT REJECTS
SENATORS' BID TO DISQUALIFY THAKSIN)

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Alex A. Arvizu, reason 1.4 (b) (
d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 001546

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/12/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM ASEC TH TRT
SUBJECT: DELPHIC ORACLES AND BLACK MAGIC - THAILAND UPDATE
MARCH 13

REF: A. BANGKOK 01537 (OPPOSITION SELLS)

B. BANGKOK 01445 (MORE CALLS FOR THAKSIN'S
RESIGNATION)

C. BANGKOK 01475 (THAI SNAP REGISTRATION ENDS)

D. BANGKOK 00959 (CONSTITUTIONAL COURT REJECTS
SENATORS' BID TO DISQUALIFY THAKSIN)

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Alex A. Arvizu, reason 1.4 (b) (
d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: All TV stations, at the request of the
Palace, ran film of the King's May 1992 meeting with General
Suchinda and protest leader Chamlong, in which the King
called on them to avoid confrontation and find a peaceful
solution. In the wake of the Sunday evening broadcast, there
have been renewed calls for resolution of the current
conflict through negotiations, perhaps mediated by Privy
Councillor Prem. Last Friday, Thaksin made his case to the
public in a TV interview, meeting with only moderate success.
Meanwhile, the exposure of fraudulent candidates and a
technical problem with the TRT party list demonstrate that
there may be problems seating all 500 members of the new
Parliament if elections take place. A Constitutional Court
judge told us that his court was wrong not to have taken the
Shin Corp case and reviewed the PM's involvement in the sale.
Pro-Thaksin farmers on tractors are heading for Government
House for a possible confrontation with anti-Thaksin
demonstrators; the demonstrators may head them off at the
pass by holding their protest march earlier. End summary.


THE KING SPEAKS - SORT OF
--------------


2. (C) By far the biggest recent development was the
unannounced broadcast on all TV stations Sunday evening at
8pm showing film of the iconic intervention of the King
following the 1992 pro-democracy demonstrations. A
broadcaster announced that, "As the current situation has led
to the existence of a large diversity of different
conflicting opinions, several groups in the society are
worried that this may lead to unrest in the country. The TV
Pool of Thailand deems it appropriate to present His Majesty
the King's advice given on 20 May 1992 to serve as a reminder
for consideration for all parties and individuals." There

follows the King's advice to both General Suchinda and the
protesters (led then, as they are today, by Chamlong
Srimuang) to avoid confrontation and violence. In 1992, the
King offered the Privy Council and particularly General Prem
Tinsulanonda as "senior figures ready to give advice with
neutrality." The clip was replayed on the Monday morning
news on several channels as well.


3. (C) The King's principal private secretary, Asa Sarasin,
told the Ambassador that the King himself ordered the film to
be shown in order to encourage a peaceful resolution to the
current political conflict. Although Asa says the intent of
the broadcast was not to favor either side, the initial
analysis is that it works against the Prime Minister, since
everyone knows that part of the solution in 1992 was for the
PM under siege to step down. This was the view expressed to
DCM by a military aide of Privy Councillor General Suryayud
Chulanont.


4. (C) In the wake of this broadcast, there have been
renewed calls for both sides to agree to meet and talk, as
well as calls for General Prem to act as mediator. The
latest idea circulating follows the outlines of the plan
advocated by the National Police spokesman last week.
Speaking in his personal capacity, the spokesman said that
each side should take "one step back." Under this scenario,
Thaksin would agree not to be PM in the next Parliament, no
matter how the voting went, and the opposition parties would
agree to participate in elections, which would be rescheduled
to allow them to choose candidates and register. So far,
however, there has been no sign of real progress in settling
up a meeting.


THAKSIN SPEAKS -- I AM NOT A CROOK
--------------


5. (C) Before the Palace's unexpected flashback, Thaksin's
campaign was dominating the press. On Friday, March 10, he
gave an interview in which he justified the sale of Shin Corp
and his decision to dissolve the Parliament, among other
difficult questions. The ABAC poll (considered to be as
reliable a poll as Thailand has) reported an even split among
viewers in response to several of the issues. 46 percent
thought Thaksin's explanation of the share of Shin Corp was
"very clear" as opposed to 42 percent who thought it wasn't.
About 44 percent agreed with his explanation on his
resignation, while 33 percent did not accept his arguments
and 23 percent had no view. 68 percent agreed with
Thaksin's explanation that he had set such a short term for
the new elections in order to allow time for the new
government to be set up before the King's celebration in
June. Several observers commented on how stressed the PM
appeared to be during the interview. The grilling he got from
the interviewer is further evidence of the increased openness
of the broadcast media. (Ref A)


6. (C) The PM also assembled civil servants on Friday,
apparently to remind them of their duty to be neutral and
implement the policies of the current administration until a
new government is formed. Several sources have confirmed
that Thaksin referred to reports that his enemies were using
voodoo and black magic against him, an interjection that one
attendee described as "inappropriate."

THE MONK SPEAKS - I AM NOT A CANDIDATE
--------------


7. (C) The Thai constitution and electoral law were meant
for genuine multi-party contests. The current election is
not quite a one horse race -- more like one horse and seven
gerbils. Thai Rak Thai's goal is to avoid various landmines
in the law that might leave some seats unfilled and, for all
practical purposes, unfillable. It is generally assumed that
all 500 seats must be filled before the new Parliament can
sit and elect a new government. Various technical problems
now cropping up are introducing additional speculation and
intrigue (Ref C).


8. (C) Number 93 on the Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party list of 100
has resigned from the party and entered the monastery. The
(former) candidate told the press that he had done this to
"unlock the political gridlock and cause the April 2 election
to be canceled, so that everyone would negotiate." Dr.
Premsak, now Phra (Monk) Premsak, intends to achieve this by
leaving TRT with only 99 people on its "party list." TRT is
widely expected to win all 100 seats awarded on the basis of
the party list vote; the other parties running cannot be
expected to get the required 5 percent of the vote
nationwide, even under the current circumstances, and thus
would not get any of the 100 party list seats. Therefore,
according to Monk Premsak and some other analysts, there will
be an unavoidable deadlock if elections take place, as TRT
will not have 100 bodies to fill its 100 seats.


9. (C) Comment: We're not certain that Monk Premsak's
analysis is correct. Since the Electoral Commission (EC)
does not finish its vetting of candidates until Wednesday, we
are not certain that TRT wouldn't get a last chance to
replace the disqualified candidate under these circumstances.
The Electoral Commission is also hinting that it might need
to find some way to resolve the various "incomplete
Parliament" scenarios. However, this very public defection
by yet another TRT member is more sobering news for PM
Thaksin. End Comment.


10. (SBU) There are also numerous press reports of
fraudulent candidates in the constituency races. Three of
these candidates came forward over the weekend and admitted
that they had been paid 30,000 baht each to claim to be
members of the Democratic Progressive Party and run in the
contest in the mid-South province of Trang. They said that
they did not know the party affiliation of the person who
paid them to run. They reportedly came forward when they
became concerned that they might be breaking the law.

THE JUDGE SPEAKS -- COURT WHIFFED ON SHIN CORP
-------------- -


11. (C) We spoke to one of the Constitutional Court judges
who voted against Thaksin in the case submitted by 28
senators requesting review the legality of the Shin Corp sale
(ref D). Judge Apai said that the six judges who voted to
accept the petition against the PM felt strongly that the
Court should have taken the case and used its authority to
investigate the allegations that Thaksin had maintained
improper control over Shin Corp and was involved in its sale.
The judge denied, however, that any of the justices on the
court had been bribed or otherwise subject to undue
influence. The judge said that this case came under the
jurisdiction of the Constitutional Court and no other court
would be able to accept this case. (Note: we believe that
this restriction applies primarily to the issue he mentioned
-- whether Thaksin controlled the Shin Corp shares sold,
which would have violated Article 209 of the Constitution.
Other aspects of the sale could conceivably be examined by
other courts. However, the Constitutional Court's decision
to take a pass on the case was the final straw for many of
the protesters, who decided that there was no legal recourse
possible to hold the PM accountable to the law. End note.)
MEANWHILE, ON SANAM LUANG
--------------


12. (C) Press reports say that at least several hundred
farmers from TRT strongholds in northeast Thailand are riding
on their tractors to Bangkok, planning to surround Government
House and confront the anti-Thaksin demonstrators. The
protesters on Sanam Luang planned to march on Government
House at 7:00 Tuesday morning. The protesters are
considering moving up the time of their march and going this
evening, in order to complete the protest there before the
tractors arrive. Thaksin has already announced he won't be
at Government House Tuesday morning for the Cabinet meeting
-- he'll be traveling in the northeast and will
teleconference with the cabinet.

COMMENT
--------------


13. (C) The Palace's tentative intervention is being widely
viewed mainly as a call for negotiations and moderation.
Thaksin supporters can claim that the message is aimed
primarily at protest leader Chamlong, whereas others
interpret the broadcast as a call for Thaksin to step down
(i.e., the "whisper in the ear.") The broadcast message is
very much the King's preferred style, vague enough to be
interpreted in different ways by different audiences. Many
observers see recent developments such as this ratcheting up
the pressure on Thaksin to be more forthcoming in trying to
negotiate a way out the impasse. He believes he's doing
plenty, but it doesn't seem to be enough. End comment.



BOYCE