THAILAND POLITICAL UPDATE MARCH 10:

C O N F I D E N T I A L BANGKOK 001521

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM TH TRT
SUBJECT: THAILAND POLITICAL UPDATE MARCH 10:

Classified By: Political Counselor Susan M. Sutton, reason 1.4 (b) (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Suspicions fall on a rogue element of the
military or police in the case of the small explosion at a
privy councilor's house. Boycotting parties are challenging
the suspicious candidates they claim have been paid by TRT to
run. Civil servants in the tax department are
surreptitiously checking the PM's tax records looking for
transgressions to leak to the opposition. Planning for the
next round of demonstrations continues. End summary.

BOMBING AT PRIVY COUNCILOR'S HOUSE -- CUI BONO?
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2. (C) Most contacts, including those in the military, seem
to believe that rogue military or police officers were behind
the small explosion at the house of revered Privy Councilor
Prem Tinsulanonda on Thursday. The argument is that some
elements in the military who support PM Thaksin believe that
the perception of dangerous disorder would give the military
an excuse to intervene, shut down the opposition protests,
and appeal to the King to endorse the April 2 elections and
therefore support Thaksin. Several opposition politicians
told us on March 10 that the act could be an effort by some
on the government side to justify imposition of the Emergency
Decree that was adopted last year, and so far been applied
only in the South. (Comment: we still see no evidence of
planned military intervention. However, tensions are
increasing and this mysterious bombing certainly raises
everyone's level of concern. End comment.)

THAI RAK THAI WORKING HARD
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3. (C) During lunch on March 10, opposition Chart Thai (CT)
party MP (and son of Chart Thai leader Barnharn Silpa-archa)
Warawut Silpa-archa, said that there are six candidates for
his constituency seat in Suphan Buri, in contrast to his one
opponent in last year's election. Warawut complained that
these individuals were obviously ringers hired by the TRT to
furnish an opposition for its candidate, due to the national
opposition parties' boycott of the elections. (See Bangkok
1475 for an explanation of why it is so important for TRT to
have at least one opposition candidate in constituencies
where it is weakest.) Warawut said that despite the
susceptibility of these candidates to legal challenge he
expects that Thaksin will manipulate the election process
successfully and the full 500 seat Parliament will convene
within 30 days of the polls as constitutionally mandated.
(Warawut claimed that one candidate slipped and admitted to a
TV interviewer that he had backdated party membership
document. The press is full of similar colorful stories.)
Warawut also said that some of his pals in TRT are unhappy
with the PM, since he is jeopardizing the whole party for his
personal interests.

CIVIL SERVICE OUT TO GET THAKSIN?
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4. (C) A high-ranking civil servant in the Ministry of
Finance told us that the employees in the Revenue Department
were busy combing through Thaksin's tax records looking for
dirt to leak to the opposition. He also confirmed that some
civil servants were wearing black on designated days to show
their opposition to the PM. Contacts in the MFA has also
confirmed that some employees there are participating in this
action.

DEMONSTRATION ISSUES
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5. (C) A contact in the military who is also Chairman of the
Bangkok Mass Transit Authority said he was ordered to have
several thousand buses in standby mode during the upcoming
demonstrations. These are to rapidly evacuate a massive crowd
from the city center if the situation deteriorates. He told
us he had several thousand bus drivers with their buses
standing by throughout last weekend. No one had made
allowances for the overtime pay this extra effort would
require, so he paid for them out of his "Chairman's Fund" of
500,000 baht.




BOYCE