Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BANGKOK1519
2006-03-10 09:37:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bangkok
Cable title:  

EAP DAS JOHN MEETING WITH ACTIVIST GOTHOM AREEYA

Tags:  PGOV PREL TH BURMA SNAP 
pdf how-to read a cable
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 001519 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EAP, EAP/MLS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/08/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL TH BURMA SNAP
SUBJECT: EAP DAS JOHN MEETING WITH ACTIVIST GOTHOM AREEYA

Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce. Reason 1.4 (b)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 001519

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EAP, EAP/MLS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/08/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL TH BURMA SNAP
SUBJECT: EAP DAS JOHN MEETING WITH ACTIVIST GOTHOM AREEYA

Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce. Reason 1.4 (b)


1. (C) SUMMARY: EAP DAS Eric John met with academic and
democracy activist Gothom Areeya on March 8 to discuss the
current political situation in Burma. Gothom, a member of
the human rights NGO Forum Asia and the National
Reconciliation Commission (NRC),outlined a compromise
solution to the current impasse -- which Prime Minister
Thaksin is unlikely to accept. Thaksin, thinking of business
considerations only, had underestimated the political impact
of the sale of Shin Corp. Gothom warned that the political
crisis could negatively affect Thai society because Thaksin
did in fact enjoy majority support which the minority
opposition refused to accept. The impasse might not be
resolved in time for the 60th anniversary of the King's
accession to the throne in June. END SUMMARY


2. (C) On March 8 DAS Eric John and Ambassador Boyce met
with noted academic and human rights activist Gothom Areeya
to discuss the current political situation in Thailand.
Gothom is an engineering professor at Chulalongkorn
University. He was a leader during both the 1973 student
protests and the 1991-1992 pro-democracy demonstrations. He
currently serves as Secretary General of the human rights NGO
Forum Asia and was appointed to serve as a member of the
National Reconciliation Commission (NRC) which is seeking a
solution to the conflict in far southern Thailand.

A NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENT NEEDED, BUT...
--------------


3. (C) Gothom said there was still room for a negotiated
settlement to the current political impasse. He suggested a
scenario where Thaksin would step down as prime minister --
even if he receives more than 50 percent of the vote -- but
would remain leader of Thai Rak Thai. This would give
Thaksin the face-saving ability to claim he was still in
charge while providing the political space for both sides to
discuss constitutional reform. A new election could be held
in a year's time. "We need to create space to allow a
dialogue to take place."


4. (C) Gothom agreed his scenario was more hopeful than
practical because Thaksin was unlikely to choose

accommodation. Gothom opined that Thaksin was not satisfied
with merely winning but felt a need to dominate politics. He
had repeatedly shown that he was not content with majority
rule, but wanted full power. The confrontation was likely to
continue for some time.


5. (C) Gothom speculated that the election would proceed as
scheduled on April 2 but turnout would be low because voters
had little motivation to participate in an election without
real choice. Gothom predicted that that the situation would
not be resolved in time for the King's 60th anniversary in
June. He said a scenario could evolve where the contending
sides agreed to a pause in the crisis to allow the
anniversary celebration, and then the confrontation would
resume in July.

THAKSIN WAS THINKING ABOUT BUSINESS, NOT POLITICS
-------------- --------------


6. (C) Gothom said the poorly timed sale of Shin Corp. to
Singapore's Temasek was simply a business decision, and that
Thaksin had not thought through the political consequences.
Thaksin actually believed that the sale would not affect the
ongoing opposition protests, which he had largely ignored up
to that point. The deal had been under negotiation for a
year. The change in the foreign ownership provision for
telecom companies had given Thaksin a window of opportunity
to sell, and he did so.

"WHAT KIND OF DEMOCRACY IS THAILAND GOING TO HAVE?"
-------------- --------------


7. (C) Gothom acknowledged that the Prime Minister still
enjoyed considerable popular support. While Thaksin rules
with the consent of the majority of Thais, the dissenting
minority is so obstinately opposed to him that they would not
allow him to remain in office. This was a crucial time in
Thai history. "We have to figure out what kind of democracy
we are going to have."


8. (C) Gothom noted that the poor and rural voters were
willing to accept Thaksin's corruption because his populist
programs were actually producing tangible results. But the
Thai middle class refused to accept the inherent unfairness
of Thaksin's actions, and the elite are unwilling to accept
him personally. Gothom warned that the situation could have
a deep impact on Thai society. If the majority of Thais --
mostly rural poor -- feel that an elite minority has thrown
out the person they elected, there could be a strong
reaction.

WHAT HAPPENS TO THE NRC?
--------------


9. (C) Turning to the National Reconciliation Commission,
Gothom said that the Commission would complete its
recommendations on how to address the root causes of southern
violence by March 27. However, the NRC would wait to release
the report until after the political situation had stabilized.

COMMENT
--------------


10. (C) Gothom makes an interesting observation that the
impasse might not be resolved prior to the June 12-13
celebration of the King's 60th year on the throne. Most
analysts have predicted that the King's anniversary
celebration -- which will bring heads of state and media from
around the world -- would create a deadline for Thaksin and
the opposition to reach a resolution. However, a "pause" in
the crisis would not be unprecedented in Thailand. During
the 1992 democracy crisis, both sides made a tacit agreement
to pause the confrontation for the Miss Universe pageant to
take place in Bangkok. The prospect of a protracted
political stalemate should not be ruled out. END COMMENT


11. (U) DAS John did not have the opportunity to clear this
message.
BOYCE