THAI SNAP ELECTION REGISTRATION ENDS; A PREVIEW OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 001475

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV TH SNAP TRT
SUBJECT: THAI SNAP ELECTION REGISTRATION ENDS; A PREVIEW OF
THE CONTEST

REF: BANGKOK 001301

Classified By: AMBASSADOR RALPH L. BOYCE. REASON 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary. Candidate registration for the April 2 snap
election has ended. Despite the three major opposition
parties' boycott, seventeen smaller, unknown parties joined
Prime Minister Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party in
registering. More importantly, these smaller parties have
registered candidates to run against TRT in traditional
opposition strongholds, which means that TRT candidates in
those races will not have to win 20 percent of all eligible
voters on election day--a scenario which threatens to block
formation of a new government. That said, the main
opposition parties that are boycotting the election are now
challenging the credentials of the smaller parties and their
candidates. The battle of the election lawyers begins now.
End Summary.

NOT SO-LATE REGISTRATION
--------------


2. (SBU) Registration for the April 2 snap elections ended
March 8. Eighteen parties, including Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai
(TRT) party, registered candidates (a full list follows
comment below) for the 500 member House race. Only eight
parties registered candidates for the 100 party list seats at
stake; 938 candidates registered for the other 400
constituency seats at stake. Thai Rak Thai was the only
party to register for all 100 party list and 400 constituency
seats. The Democrat, Mahachon and Chat Thai parties (the
only parties besides TRT in the just-disbanded parliament)
held to their boycott and did not register any candidates.


3. (SBU) So who are these other parties? None held seats in
the previous parliament. Only one other outfit--former
Bangkok governor Samak's Prachakorn Thai--has any real
history or reputation. The rest are personal parties for
political gadflies or fringe causes. Most are running no
more than a handful of candidates. Five parties that did not
compete in the February 2005 elections are running
candidates: Thamma Thippatai (Moral Democracy),Chiwit
Thidikwa (Better Life),Sayam (Siam),Pracha Tippatai Kaona
(Progressive Democratic),and Phoen Kasettakon Thai (Friends
of Thai Agriculture). Of these, Pracha Tippatai Kaona and
Sayam are the only two with more than a handful of
candidates, with 37 and 28 candidates, respectively.

THAI RAK THAI TRIES TO DODGE A BULLET
--------------


4. (C) As reftel noted, Thai Rak Thai's dominance in the
April 2 vote is a foregone conclusion. The key variable is
the presence of non-TRT candidates in the 38 constituencies
where TRT received less than 20 percent of the vote in the
February 2005 election. To recap: in the case of at least
two candidates running for a constituent seat, a simple
plurality wins. If a candidate runs unopposed in an
electoral district, however, he or she must win at least 20
percent of eligible voters in that district. In the 2005
election, TRT drew less than 20 percent of the vote in 38
constituencies. But with the major opposition parties
boycotting the contest, TRT will either have to beat their
results in all 38 of those districts, or get one of the minor
parties to run a candidate in those districts (thus making
the 20 percent rule inapplicable). If even one constituency
does not produce a valid winner, it would be impossible to
seat the House and form a new government. If that were the
case, a special by-election for the unfilled seats would be
held a week later, and repeated ad infinitum until the seat
is filled. (Note. In 2001, two rounds of back-to-back voting
had to be held before a government could be formed. End Note)
Throughout this process, Thaksin would remain caretaker
Prime Minister, but any delay in forming a new government
would only add to the political uncertainty.


5. (C) TRT is trying to sidestep this problem. Thai Rak Thai
candidates will run unopposed in 131 out of the 400
constituencies, but our initial analysis indicates that these
are "safe" districts, where the PM's party will easily get
more than 20 percent of eligible voters. In fact--whether
the product of TRT direction and funding or not--the small
parties participating in the snap election seem to have more
candidates in areas more difficult for Thaksin and TRT. In
the Democrat party stronghold of the South, 225 candidates
are running for 59 seats. In the central region (including
Bangkok),360 candidates are competing for 130 seats. In
Thaksin's home region in the North, however, only 115
candidates are running for 75 seats.

BUT THE ELECTION DROPOUTS CRY FOUL
--------------


6. (C) The boycott bloc is trying to derail an easy TRT
victory by challenging the small party candidates'
qualifications. Some politicians are alleging that TRT has
recruited unqualified people (either not members of their
party for 90 days prior to registration or not tied to the
province as the law requires) to run against them as
strawmen. Democrat Party executive member Pichet
Phanvichartkul delivered a letter to the Election Commission
(EC) yesterday asking for an investigation of several parties
and their candidates. EC Chairman Wassana Permlarp told
reporters that he had ordered local election officials to
conduct a thorough examination of all candidates. Septel
will detail further Democrat Party allegations of TRT and
small party collusion.

COMMENT--WHEN LAWYERS ATTACK
--------------


7. (C) TRT is trying to avoid a painful series of run-off
elections, but the boycott bloc's lawyers are pushing back.
If the Democrat Party and their cohorts can disqualify even a
handful of candidates in the South or Bangkok, they could
prolong the voting process, resulting in prolongation of the
stalemate. That said, this scenario supposes that TRT (and
the smaller parties) have indeed cut corners with their
candidates and registration documents. We can expect a
number of technical legal challenges in the ensuing days.


Parties Registered for the April 2, 2006 snap election:

Thai Rak Thai (Thais Love Thais)
100 party list, 400 constituency candidates
Kasettakon Thai (Thai Agriculture)
7 party list, 20 constituency candidates
Phalang Prachahon (Force of the People)
5 party list, 9 constituency candidates
Prachakon Thai (Thai Citizens)
27 party list, 82 constituency candidates
Phaen Din Thai (Land of Thai)
5 party list, 120 constituency candidates
Thai Chuay Thai (Thais Help Thais)
13 party list, 66 constituency candidates
Phattana Chatthai (Thai National Development)
5 party list, 30 constituency candidates
Thamma Thippatai (Moral Democracy)
5 party list, 4 constituency candidates
Kasikon Thai (Thai Farmers)
0 party list, 1 constituency candidates
Kritthai Mangkhong (Thai Solidarity Might)
0 party list, 2 constituency candidates
Chiwit Thidikwa (Better Life)
0 part list, 2 constituency candidates
Sayam (Siam)
0 party list, 28 constituency candidates
Kit Sangkhom (Social Action)
0 party list, 9 constituency candidates
Pracha Thippatai Kaona (Progressive Democracy)
0 party list, 37 constituency candidates
Khon Kho Plot Ni (Debt-Relief Seekers)
0 party list, 113 constituency candidates
Phoen Kasettakon Thai (Friends of Thai Agriculture)
0 party list, 8 constituency candidates
Phalang Tham (Force of Dharma)
0 party list, 3 constituency candidates
Rak Phaen Din Thai (Thai Land Conservation)
0 party list, 3 constituency candidates
BOYCE