Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BANGKOK1473
2006-03-09 10:16:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bangkok
Cable title:  

EAP DEPUTY ASSISTANT SECRETARY JOHN'S MEETING WITH

Tags:  PGOV PREL TH SNAP 
pdf how-to read a cable
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 001473 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL TH SNAP
SUBJECT: EAP DEPUTY ASSISTANT SECRETARY JOHN'S MEETING WITH
DEMOCRAT PARTY DEPUTY LEADER SURIN

Classified By: AMBASSADOR RALPH BOYCE. REASON 1.4(D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 001473

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL TH SNAP
SUBJECT: EAP DEPUTY ASSISTANT SECRETARY JOHN'S MEETING WITH
DEMOCRAT PARTY DEPUTY LEADER SURIN

Classified By: AMBASSADOR RALPH BOYCE. REASON 1.4(D)


1. (C) Summary: During a March 8 meeting with EAP Deputy
Assistant Secretary John and the Ambassador, Democrat Party
Deputy Leader and former Foreign Minister Surin Pitsuwan
voiced his hope that the Palace would convince Prime Minister
Thaksin to step down. He acknowledged, however, that the
King would likely be reluctant to oust a populist leader
elected by a large majority of the populace. Surin said that
the DP is mounting a series of rallies around Thailand to
encourage the electorate to check "no vote" on their ballots
in next month's elections. He claimed that Thaksin's TRT
party is busily paying individuals to oppose it under the
banner of small inconsequential parties in order to give the
appearance of a real electoral contest. End summary.


2. (C) Democrat Party Deputy Leader and former Foreign
Minister Surin Pitsuwan met with EAP DAS John on March 8,
just prior to his leaving for a series of rallies around
Thailand to encourage the electorate to check "no vote" on
their ballots in next month's elections. Surin said that DP
leaders are explaining to voters throughout Thailand their
party's rationale for refusing participation in the polls.
Surin claimed that the election would be rigged and that the
DP did not want to legitimize an essentially "dirty process."
He added that in the absence of the DP running, the TRT is
paying individuals to oppose it under the banner of small
inconsequential parties and busily forging the paperwork to
allow the ersatz candidates to meet residential, educational
and time-in-party requirements. In his district in Nakhon Si
Thammarat, said Surin, the TRT had offered 1 million baht to
a local candidate to run against it, but the potential
recruit was holding out for three million. (Note:
registration of candidates concluded on March 8 afternoon.)



3. (C) DAS John noted that the Shin Corp sale appears to
have been a tipping point, but that Thaksin has not actually
been caught out committing a blatantly illegal action -- so
why the boycott and clamor for his resignation? Surin
responded that Thaksin's "sin" has been a consistent evasion
of the law and misuse of authority. He and his regime have

undermined and manipulated all of the country's supervisory
mechanisms -- the Security and Exchange Commission, the
Constitutional Court, the Election Commission, the Tax
Department, etc. Thaksin has been "too good" at manipulating
small weaknesses in a generally good -- though in need of
some adjustment -- constitution, Surin said. Even the
nominally independent courts are suborned by Thaksin through
bribery. In addition, Thaksin controlled the electronic
media and much of the print media, Surin complained. Why
participate when the system will be manipulated against you?
Surin concluded.


4. (C) Surin acknowledged international criticism of the
DP's decision to boycott the April polls. DAS John asked how
he would address critics who say that the DP is a
"spoilsport" that, cognizant that the Prime Minister would
win in a new election, will try to bring him down by other
means. Surin responded that the political and governmental
system itself has gone bad under Thaksin -- constitutional
controls have been undermined by the Prime Minister and
electoral watchdog bodies compromised.


5. (C) The Ambassador raised the seeming divide between
Thaksin's political base in north and northeast Thailand on
the one hand and Bangkok on the other. Surin said that the
average low income worker or farmer in populous Isaan
(northeast) Thailand is "not interested" and does not want to
know about the crisis that Thaksin has created by his abuse
of power. "It is the educated in Bangkok and the elite" who
are carrying the struggle, he added.


6. (C) When DAS John asked where he thought the situation
was going, Surin said that he hoped that someone such as
Privy Council Chairman General Prem Tinsulanonda would be
able to weigh in with the Palace's authority to persuade
Thaksin to go for the sake of the country's stability. He
opined that otherwise Thaksin will not likely go without
being pushed. If Article 7 comes into play, Surin said, the
King could appoint a new Prime Minister and "fair and
transparent" elections be scheduled. (Note: Article 7
stipulates that "Whenever no provision under this
Constitution is applicable to any case, it shall be decided
in accordance with the constitutional practice in the
democratic regime of government with the King as Head of the
State.") The Ambassador asked if the DP had lines through to
the Palace towards this eventuality. Surin said he thought
not, but that the DP was "hopeful" that the Palace would
decide "enough is enough" and tell Thaksin to go. (Note: On
March 8 Privy Councillor and former Supreme Commander General
Surayut Chulanont issued a call for a dialogue between
Thaksin and his opposition.)

7. (C) Surin agreed with the Ambassador that the King would
be reluctant to oust a populist leader elected by a large
majority of the populace and still apparently enjoying great
popularity outside of Bangkok and the DP's traditional
stronghold in Thailand's south. The Palace would not want to
appear to take sides in this contest between Thaksin and his
enemies, he noted.


8. (C) Another variable in the ongoing situation is the
upcoming celebration of the King's 60th anniversary of his
accession to the throne, said Surin. He said that the
results of the flawed elections may not be resolved by then
and the Palace would be apprehensive over the celebrations
taking place amid an atmosphere of national political
uncertainty. The anti-Thaksin demonstrators under the
People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) umbrella would likely
call for a break during the celebrations. The situation is
"messy" with no "happy" options, Surin said. The Parliament
cannot even be re-seated because the decree dissolving it had
immediate effect. Thinking aloud, Surin added that Thaksin
could have saved himself and the country considerable trouble
if, rather than dissolve Parliament, he had resigned and
appointed a malleable successor.


9. (C) The Ambassador noted that the DP has some dubious
company on its side of the anti-Thaksin front -- Sondhi has a
questionable business past and Chamlong is out of date and
heads a strange cult of followers. Surin agreed and noted
that the DP is avoiding the anti-Thaksin rallies sponsored by
Sondhi and the PAD. Rather, DP representatives are
participating in academic seminars on issues such as
Thaksin's alleged stock manipulation and tax evasion.






BOYCE