THAILAND POLITICAL UPDATE: ANTI-THAKSIN FORCES TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 001408

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/07/2016
TAGS: PGOV TH TRT SNAP
SUBJECT: THAILAND POLITICAL UPDATE: ANTI-THAKSIN FORCES TO
MOUNT FURTHER PRESSURE TO OUST THAKSIN

REF: BANGKOK 1376 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR SUSAN M. SUTTON. REASON: 1.4 (D)


1. (C) Summary: At a March 6 rally at Sanam Luang Park,
People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) leaders called for a
large scale march on Government House next week to coincide
with the meeting of the caretaker cabinet. The organizers
also plan a "rehearsal" demonstration at Sanam Luang on March
13, the night before the cabinet march. An umbrella group of
state enterprise employees has called for a general assembly
on March 10 to discuss possible labor actions. Thaksin
remains defiant of his critics, insisting that he will not be
intimidated and has the support of millions. An academic
leader within the anti-Thaksin movement told us that further
measures to pressure Thaksin are planned and that he feared
clashes between demonstrators and police (and possibly
Thaksin partisans) could break out. End summary.

LATEST RALLY CALLS FOR MASSIVE MARCH ON CABINET MEET


2. (C) At a March 6 rally attended by an estimated 30,000
anti-Thaksin protesters at Sanam Luang Park, People's
Alliance for Democracy (PAD) leaders called for a large scale
march on Government House next week to coincide with the
meeting of the caretaker cabinet. The marchers will
reportedly try to hand a petition to Thaksin calling for him
to resign. PAD core member Pibhop Dhongchai told the crowd
that the morning procession on March 14 could be challenged
by the Prime Minister. PAD has called for continuing
demonstrations at Sanam Luang every evening until March 13,
when a large "warm up" demonstration will be held on the eve
of the cabinet march.

ACADEMICS PROMISE MORE ACTION; SAYS CLASHES PROBABLE


3. (C) Chulalongkorn University lecturer Dr. Surat
Horachaikul, a leader of the Academic Network for Democracy
(AND - a part of the anti-Thaksin coalition) told poloff on
March 7 that the movement plans to mount boycotts of Thaksin
family-owned companies AIS (cell phones) and ITV
(television). AND will also stage protests outside the
Singapore Embassy in the near future and postpone scheduled
academic cooperation programs because of alleged Singapore
support for Thaksin through the Temasek Corporation. Dr.
Surat said that the movement was keeping things on a "low
boil" this week, but that next Tuesday's march to petition
Thaksin at his cabinet meeting would signal a new push to get
him out of office.


4. (C) Surat said that he believes Thaksin wants to exit
gracefully but will not do so until he is sure his assets are
safe. Surat said that, regretfully, some academics had
called for Thaksin to be stripped of his (presumably
ill-gotten) assets. This, said Surat, leaves Thaksin little
choice but to fight it out. Dr. Surat told poloff he
believes that in the end Thaksin will be forced out and that
the King will eventually and reluctantly intervene under
constitution article 7. He could not give poloff any game
plan by Thaksin's opponents save that Thaksin's resignation
must be followed by free and transparent polls under a strong
Election Commission. He cautioned however that he expects
the spiraling level of anti-Thaksin demonstrations will lead
to a clash between demonstrators and police (and possibly
pro-Thaksin partisans). Dr. Surat vowed to prevent Thaksin
from claiming legitimacy through what he predicts will be
rigged polls next month.


5. (C) Another academic from Thammasat University told
poloff in a separate meeting on March 7 that students plan to
launch a "Vote No Vote" campaign as soon as exams conclude at
the end of this week. The campaign would focus on convincing
voters to go to the polls on April 2 and mark the space for
"No Vote" on their ballots.

AND LABOR GROUPS CONSIDER ACTION


6. (C) Press articles on March 7 report plans by personnel
of a number of state firms -- the Electricity Generating
Authority of Thailand (EGAT),the Metropolitan Electricity
Authority (MEA),the Provincial Electricity Authority (PEA),
the Metropolitan Waterworks Authority (MWWA) and the
Provincial Waterworks Authority (PWA),to conduct a work
stoppage from next Monday to pressure Thaksin to step down.
However, Embassy labor contacts tell us that these threats
were not likely to be carried out. Some in the movement fear
a public backlash if services are disrupted, while others
question the relevancy of the anti-Thaksin movement to their
union members, saying that anti-Thaksin leaders such as
Sondhi and Chamlong have agendas that do not include labor
issues. The State Enterprise Relations Confederation (SERC)
has notified the Labor Ministry that it would like to hold a
general meeting on March 10 and may call for state enterprise
workers to ask for personal leave on March 14 to join the
anti-Thaksin march.
AND EVEN TROUBLE IN THE MALL FOR THAKSIN


7. (C) According to a senior editor of an opposition
newspaper, Thaksin's wife and children were confronted by
shoppers at an upscale Bangkok mall several days ago.
Wanchai said that they were booed by many of the shoppers and
assailed with the anti-Thaksin movement's slogan "Thaksin Get
Out!" "Thaksin Get Out!" Finally, security guards rushed to
the scene to escort them out of the shopping mall.
BOYCE