THAI POLITICAL UPDATE: DUELING DEMOS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 001376

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/05/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM ASEC TH SNAP TRT
SUBJECT: THAI POLITICAL UPDATE: DUELING DEMOS

REF: A. BANGKOK 1180

B. BANGKOK 0538

Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce, reason 1.4 (b) (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Thaksin's ruling Thai Rak Thai had the
bigger demonstration, but the opposition rally on Sunday had
more spirit. Thaksin promised more of everything: political
reform, transparency and, by the way, a pay raise for civil
servants. The opposition scored by turning out a bigger
crowd this week than previously, and by marching on the
Democracy Monument and on Government House without incident.
Police behaved correctly throughout the Sunday protest,
however, the concern remains that discipline could break on
one side or the other, resulting in a situation that will
bring problems to a head. More groups have joined the
anti-Thaksin campaign; the latest is a group of "academics
and royal relatives" who have petitioned the King to
intervene and appoint an short-term interim government to
oversee some constitutional changes and new elections.

IN THIS CORNER...
--------------


2. (C) Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai party (TRT) led off the
weekend's events with a very large rally on Sanam Luang field
on the evening of Friday, March 3. By the time Poloffs
arrived at Sanam Luang at 8pm, there was already a large
crowd of around 200,000 people gathered to listen to PM
Thaksin's speech; some estimates put the crowd at over
300,000. Most of the audience appeared to be from the
countryside, with a number of middle-aged men and women. The
streets were almost devoid of taxi and tuk-tuk drivers as
many attended the rally; most of these drivers are from the
countryside themselves, and they make up a big part of
Thaksin's urban support base. Although the turnout was quite
impressive, the crowd was noticeably unenthused and seemed
removed from what was happening on stage, especially when
compared to the anti-Thaksin rallies. Some walked around
with cardboard posters on wooden sticks, but many were like
one 50-something woman who lugged her banner backwards over
her shoulders with a cigarette in the other hand as she
circled the crowd sluggishly. As large as the crowd was, the
people quickly disbanded and left as soon as Thaksin finished
his speech and left; the field emptied out within 20 minutes.


3. (U) In Thaksin's speech, he defended his actions related
to the controversial Shin Corp sale (ref B). He also made a
number of promises. First, he pledged that he would not
accept the PM position after the election if TRT received
less than 50 percent of the total votes cast -- meaning more
than the total of their opponents and the "no vote" ballots.
He said that the new Parliament would focus on amending the
constitution and would call for a second snap election in
nine to 15 months, after political reform is completed. He
said he would have a media representative sit in on all
procurement committees for projects over 100 million baht.
He also promised to raise civil servant salaries in 2007.
The Democrat Party asked the Electoral Commission to check
the speech for violations of campaign law, arguing that his
promises of a pay raise to civil servants could be construed
as vote-buying.

AND, WEIGHING IN AT 150,000...
-------------- ---


4. (C) The People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD)
demonstration on March 5 was a very different affair. The
crowd was perhaps half the size of Thaksin's, but it was
considerably larger than the previous anti-Thaksin
demonstrations had been (ref A). If last week's PAD
demonstration was approximately 120,000, we would put this
one at about 150,000. The crowd was also far more fired up
than we had seen at any previous demonstration. There were
more students and younger people; participants of all ages
did not just sit and listen, but responded whole-heartedly to
the speakers and musicians. In part, this was because the
speeches were a small part of the evening. Demonstrators
visited the "booths" set up by FTAWatch and various
anti-Thaksin groups, each distributing flyers, posters,
selling T-shirts, hats and buttons, and displaying a
remarkable number of caricatures of Thaksin as Hitler or the
devil. The Thammasat University Chinese Opera debuted their
latest production, full of satirical references to Thaksin's
troubles. At 9:00, the demonstrators began to form up for
the march on the Democracy Monument, less than a kilometer
away down a main street. Most of the crowd on the field
joined the march, singing and chanting "Thaksin -- get out;"
the march was led by hundreds of the eerily-silent "Dharma
Army", adherents of a strict Buddhist sect, many of whom
marched barefoot (ref A). Unlike previous demonstrations,
members of the crowd made a point of approaching Poloff
observers to shout their slogans in English. The crowd was
disciplined and very well organized -- hundreds of banners
and protest placards, tens of thousands of small Thai flags
waiving, large yellow and blue flags leading the way. The
police behaved correctly throughout, although they appeared
more worried than they had at the Feb. 26 demonstration. We
noted the absence of female police officers, who had helped
screen the demonstrators last week.


5. (C) After some speeches at the Democracy Monument, the
word spread that the crowd would march on Government House.
Poloff, who arrived at Government House ahead of the
demonstrators, spoke to the sound crew who arrived to set up
the lights and loudspeakers. According to them, the PAD had
considered marching on the PM's house, but had been warned
off that move by police during consultations before the demo
began. Government House was an acceptable alternative to
both sides. Police along the route stopped the demonstrators
at several points to delay their arrival at Government House
while more police were moved into position, but they did not
try to prevent the marchers from proceeding. The Dharma Army
had an impromptu kitchen set up on the sidewalk near
Government House with hot soup ready for their marchers by
the time the crowd turned up; clearly, the police were
expecting their visitors. Here again, the crowd was very
disciplined, with designated staff linking arms to prevent
the crowd surging forward, using megaphones and loudspeakers
to keep the march under control. We understand that PAD had
supporters along the march route armed with video cameras, to
document any provocations (and prove their own innocence).
Estimates of the number of demonstrators who arrived at
Government House at about 11:30 pm ranged from 20,000 to
50,000. The crowd disbursed from Government House around 2
am, according to press reports; Dharma Army members returned
to Sanam Luang to camp out and participate in the next round:
the PAD says that the demonstration will continue this
evening and every evening until Thaksin resigns. They are
expected to march on Government House again tonight, and some
will sleep there and stay to protest during the Cabinet
meeting on Tuesday.

THE KING -- AGAIN
--------------


6. (SBU) Adding to Thaksin's woes, the independent press
highlighted the latest group to take a public, anti-Thaksin
stand. A group of over 100 "academics and royal relatives"
petitioned the King on March 3 to remove Thaksin as PM and
appoint a short-term interim government to oversee
constitutional changes and new elections. The petition says
that Thaksin "lost legitimacy because he unjustly dissolved
Parliament and worsened the situation." The signatories
include a number of well-known Thaksin critics, among them
current and former university rectors, anti-corruption
officials, former ambassadors and other members of the "A"
list.

COMMENT
--------------


7. (C) The threat that the crowd would march out of Sanam
Luang on March 5 had inspired many predictions of chaos,
violence and provocations. In the end, both police and
protestors showed discipline and restraint. The march was
impressive, but not enough, by itself, to make Thaksin
reconsider his refusal to step down. Although both sides
have pledged to maintain this kind of discipline, the concern
remains that one side or the other will get too tired and
frustrated with the continuing standoff, possibly leading to
a provocation or a miscalculation


8. (C) Thaksin's offer of a short-lived Parliament to
consider constitutional reform is a clever move. It may take
some of the steam out of his less-committed opponents, who
might reconcile themselves to the prospect of another year of
Thaksin followed by a more serious chance to unseat him in
elections. The civil service pay hikes are not a bad idea
either. Thaksin's popularity in the countryside is largely
based on his populist measures like the village development
funds, which make low-interest loans for villagers. It's
time for him to bolster his support in the capital with
measures to spread the wealth to the urban-dwellers as well.
The election -- if it happens -- is less than a month away.



BOYCE