TO BE OR NOT TO BE: THAT IS THE THAI SNAP ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 001301

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/02/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV TH SNAP
SUBJECT: TO BE OR NOT TO BE: THAT IS THE THAI SNAP ELECTION

Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce. Reason 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary. Prime Minister Thaksin led his Thai Rak Thai
party in registering for the April 2 snap election Thursday.
Only four other fringe parties have followed suit so far, as
the major opposition parties held to their boycott. The
Democrat Party canceled their planned rally at the Royal
Plaza on Saturday. Thaksin's rally Friday and the opposition
People's Alliance for Democracy rally Sunday--both at Sanam
Luang--are still on. Local press reported that Thaksin may
propose a new "social contract" in his speech on Friday;
according to this account, the PM will vow to dissolve the
to-be-elected government after 180 days. That six month
period would be used to amend the constitution. The April 2
election appears far from certain; in addition, due to the
details of the election law, the opposition boycott could
succeed in delaying a new government from forming even if
elections occur. Septel details the Ambassador's dinner with
Army Chief Sonthi Boonyaratklin. End Summary.

THE UNUSUAL SUSPECTS REGISTER FOR THE VOTE
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2. (SBU) Thaksin led his Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party-list
candidates to formally register on March 2. The PM, who
topped the 100 candidate list, reiterated his call for the
Democrat, Chat Thai and Mahachon parties to reconsider their
boycott of the election, but the opposition parties held
firm. Only four minor parties--none of which won seats in
the 2005 election--registered along with TRT: Prachakorn
Thai, Kasetakorn Thai, Phandin Thai and the Palang Prachachon
parties. Friday, March 3 will be the last chance for any
other parties to register.

A NEW OLIVE BRANCH FROM THE PM?
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3. (SBU) The PM may yet try to divide the opposition by
offering new constitutional amendments. Local press reported
that Thaksin plans to announce a new "social contract" at his
rally on Friday. According to this account, Thaksin will vow
to dissolve the new parliament 180 days after he forms a new
government. Those six months will be spent amending the
constitution. Opposition leaders dismissed this idea. PAD
leader Suriyasai Katasila told reporters that "the only way
to solve the current crisis is that Thaksin has to go."
Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjahiva refused to judge the
proposal, saying "how can we believe his words?"

PREPARING FOR ELECTION DYSFUNCTION
--------------


4. (C) The opposition parties decided to boycott the election
in the hopes that their non-participation would destroy the
legitimacy of the contest and force Thaksin to resign as PM.
But a close look at the election law suggests that their
boycott may actually prevent a new government from forming
anytime soon. The House is composed of 100 party-list seats
and 400 constituent seats. All 500 seats must be filled
before the new parliament can be seated and a new Prime
Minister and cabinet selected. Under an opposition boycott
scenario, Thai Rak Thai is likely to win the entire slate of
100 party-list seats. The constituent seats, however, may
pose more of a problem.


5. (C) In the case of at least two candidates running for a
constituent seat, a simple plurality wins. If a candidate
runs unopposed in an electoral district, however, he/she must
win at least 20 percent of eligible voters in that district.
In the 2005 election, TRT drew less than 20 percent of the
vote in 38 constituencies; the opposition easily won those
seats. But with the major opposition parties boycotting the
contest, TRT will either have to beat their results in all 38
of those districts, or get one of the minor parties to run a
candidate in those districts (thus making the 20 percent rule
inapplicable). If TRT and a combination of the minor parties
cannot win all 400 constituent seats, they could not seat the
House and form a new government. In this case, a special
by-election for the unfilled seats would be held a week
later, and repeated ad infinitum until the seat is filled.
(Note. In 2001, two rounds of back-to-back voting had to be
held before a government could be formed. End Note)
Throughout this saga, Thaksin would remain caretaker Prime
Minister, but any delay in forming a new government would
only add to the political uncertainty.


6. (C) Our contacts in both the opposition and TRT appear to
be aware of this possibility and are planning for it. For
TRT this means encouraging minor parties to run in these
tough districts. Indeed, once a candidate registers to run
for a constituency seat they cannot, by law, withdraw from
the contest. In other words, if TRT can get minor party
candidates to sign up for the race (and thus preclude TRT
from having to win more than 20 percent of eligible votes),
they need not follow through with an expensive campaign. The
pool of eligible minor party candidates is limited, however;
they must have ties to the province they are running in and
have been a member of their party for 90 consecutive days.
The opposition, meanwhile, will likely try to cut their own
deals with potential minor party candidates to keep them from
running, challenge the credentials of those who do run, and
work to keep voters at home on election day.

COMMENT
--------------

7. (C) We should have a better feel for the likelihood of a
delay in forming a new government when candidate registration
ends on March 8 and we can get a clear headcount of non-TRT
candidates. That said, the convoluted scenario above
supposes a lot; the biggest question is whether the election
happens at all. Local journalists, the elite and the
chattering classes appear increasingly convinced that the
election will not happen. But they remain unable to explain
why or how the vote will be blocked without invoking the
usual conspiracy theories. A simple, clear and likely method
for removing Thaksin remains elusive. The same could be said
for his political survival. For his part, Thaksin remains
determined to crack the opposition's unity. His speech
Friday may win back some hearts and minds, but it will be too
late in some ways; the deadline for parties to register for
the election will have passed. Still, the pomp and
circumstance of the election preparations are a temporary
sideshow. All eyes are still focused on this weekend's
rallies.
BOYCE