SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF PACFLT COMMANDER ADM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 001236

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

PACFLEET FOR ADM ROUGHEAD
PACOM FOR FPA HUSO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/01/2016
TAGS: OVIP PGOV PREL MARR TH
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF PACFLT COMMANDER ADM
ROUGHEAD


Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce. Reason 1.4 (a and d)


1. (C) Gary, your trip to Bangkok will take place as Prime
Minister Thaksin faces his most serious political crisis
since taking office. Speculation about the future of his
government will likely arise during all of your meetings. We
are asking all U.S. visitors meeting with Thai officials to
urge respect for the democratic process and to stress the
importance of showing restraint and using peaceful methods.
Your visit remains a terrific opportunity to improve our
links with the Royal Thai Navy. Jonathan Greenert is here
now and the Thai are excited about the possibility of more
USN ship visits, possibly to include the USS Abraham Lincoln
Battle Group in April. Our military-to-military relationship
is strong. Nonetheless, our relationship with the Royal Thai
Navy could be improved. We hope during your stay that you
will be able to promote several issues such as our desire for
better cooperation with Thailand in maritime security as well
as flag key benefits of U.S.-Thai cooperation such as the
growing professionalism within Thai Naval Special Forces.

THE POLITICAL SITUATION


2. (C) In 2001, PM Thaksin Shinawatra became the first
democratically elected civilian Prime Minister to win an
outright majority in the Thai Parliament. He has dominated
the political scene in ways never seen before. He has used
Constitutional changes implemented in 1997 to take control of
most of the major government institutions -- including ones
initially designed to be independent. Until recently,
despite an authoritarian streak, he has deftly mixed populist
measures such as virtually free health care with a
pro-business economic policy in a fashion that allowed his
Thai Rak Thai (Thais loving Thais) political party to run the
country. In February 2005, Thai Rak Thai won 375 of the 500
seats in Parliament. Thaksin comes from a prosperous
Sino-Thai family in Thailand's second largest city, Chiang
Mai, and placed first in his class at the National Police
Academy. He spent several years studying in the United
States and considers himself a friend of the President.
After a few years with the police, he left government service
to run the family business (Shinawatra Corporation, or Shin
Corp),which he turned into Thailand's largest telecom
company, making himself a multi-billionaire.


3. (C) The Thai political system is presently working
through its biggest crisis since 1992. Tens of thousands
have participated in peaceful rallies protesting government
corruption and Thaksin's recent tax-free sale of Shin Corp to
Singapore. In an effort to work his way out of the current
predicament, Thaksin dissolved parliament and called snap
elections nominally set for April 2. The opposition has
announced it will boycott the elections, a move that could
force an impasse taking Thai politics into uncharted
Constitutional territory. At this point, we believe there is
a reasonably good chance that the Thai will work through this
problem peacefully, and in a way that will generally be
considered legitimate here. Most of our contacts express
confidence that troops will remain in the barracks.
Nonetheless, given the Thai military's history of involvement
in politics, we are monitoring the situation closely. We are
urging the police and military to use restraint against
peaceful demonstrators and not to intervene illegally in the
situation. We wish to avoid being seen as taking sides.

THE OVERALL SECURITY RELATIONSHIP


4. (C) The U.S.-Thai security relationship is based on over
50 years of close cooperation. Thai soldiers, sailors and
airmen participated in the Korean and Vietnamese Conflicts
and Thai peacekeepers served in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Thailand is the fourth largest participant in the U.S.
International Military Education and Training (IMET) program.
Thailand's willingness to allow the United States to use
Utapao Naval Air Station as the hub for our regional tsunami
assistance program was key to making Operation Unified
Assistance a success. In your meetings with Thai officials,
you will want to note the overall strength of the
relationship -- highlighting our history and underscoring the
importance of our tsunami cooperation, exercise program,
increased tempo of USN ship visits, and cooperation in the
War on Terrorism.

THE NAVAL RELATIONSHIP


5. (C) While our overall relationship with the Thai military
is good, our links with the Royal Thai Navy (RTN) are not as
strong as those with the Royal Thai Army or Air Force. The
RTN is smaller than the other services and tends to be less
willing to be open with U.S. counterparts. This has not been
the case historically, and we need to work to reverse the
trend. Recently, the Chinese have improved their ties to the
RTN as evidenced by the first PLA Navy ship visit to Phuket,
a joint SAR exercise in the Andaman Sea, and sales to
Thailand of Chinese equipment. Likewise, the RTN has been
developing a closer relationship with the Indian Navy and has
conducted some exercises with the Indians.


6. (C) In addition to supporting our annual Cooperation
Afloat Readiness and Training (CARAT) exercise with Thailand,
JUSMAGTHAI has worked closely with RTN Special Warfare units
to increase their capacity. USN SEALS have helped to provide
their Thai counterparts with some impressive capabilities.
For instance, Thai SEALS regularly conduct exercises aimed at
protecting oil and gas platforms in the Gulf of Thailand.
This NSW relationship was graphically demonstrated during the
tsunami response when USN and RTN SEALS rapidly deployed to

SIPDIS
Phuket to assist in the recovery efforts. The Prime Minister
was photographed in a recovery boat manned by the SEALS.
Despite their improved professionalism, the Thai SEALS are
not well-supported by senior RTN officials. In your meetings
with your counterparts, you may wish to discuss the
importance of the SEALS and make mention of their
capabilities.

REGIONAL MARITIME SECURITY


7. (C) A key U.S. objective in the region is to improve
Maritime Security. We are working closely with PACOM to
encourage Thailand and others to support the Regional
Maritime Security Initiative (RMSI). In November, during the
U.S.-Thailand Strategic Dialogue, LTG Kemarat Kanchanawat,
the Royal Thai Supreme Command (RTSC) Joint Operations
Director, discussed a "Combined Maritime Patrol" architecture
for the Strait of Malacca that would involve Indonesia,
Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand. In a January 24 meeting
with the Ambassador, RTN CINC ADM Satirapan Keyanon indicated
that the RTN was leery of this Combined Maritime Patrol
architecture, suggesting that Kemarat was trying to commit
the RTN budget to the proposal without proper authority.
During your meetings with RTN officers, you may wish to probe
for a clearer understanding of how the Thai Navy views its
responsibilities to safeguard waters in the region. On a
related topic, RTN officials are skeptical of the Malaysian
sponsored "Eyes in the Sky" program. Thailand does not plan
to actively participate for at least a year due to not having
enough aircraft to sustain long-term patrolling.

UTAPAO UPGRADES


8. (C) Utapao NAS has been designated by PACOM as the most
important Cooperative Security Location (CSL) in the Asia
Pacific Region. While we avoid using the term "CSL" with the
Thai due to their sensitivities about bases, Utapao remains
vital to our interests in the region. Thai and U.S. officials
in-country concur that Utapao is due for significant safety
upgrades in order to continue to meet our needs. Although
Utapao is a RTN facility, PACAF is the executive agent
exploring whether the United States can assist in providing
safety upgrades there. Thai military officials still await
the results of a PACAF assessment of Utapao which took place
in September. Royal Thai Navy officials recently indicated
to the Ambassador that they seek radar upgrades at Utapao in
addition to fire safety and other improvements.

THE ROLE OF CHINA AND INDIA IN THE REGION


9. (C) Southeast Asia continues to feel the rising influence
of China and India. While emphasizing the vital role of the
U.S. in the region -- and Thailand's desire to intensify U.S.
engagement -- Thai leaders also focus on developing stronger
relations with the two regional powers. The Thai view both
countries as sources of unlimited consumer demand and hope to
conclude Free Trade Agreements with both nations. Given your
close interest in those countries, it would be worthwhile for
you to exchange views on the future roles of India and China.

COUNTERTERRORISM AND SOUTHERN THAILAND


10. (C) Until recently, Prime Minister Thaksin's biggest
domestic challenge was the unsettled security situation in
the far southern part of the country. Southern Thailand, in
particular the southernmost Muslim majority provinces of
Pattani, Yala, and Narathiwat, has experienced episodic
violence since it was incorporated into the Siamese Kingdom
in 1902. However, since January 2004, we have witnessed a
dramatic increase in the level of violence. Press reports
indicate that over 1,000 persons have been killed either by
militants or by security forces during this period. Local
Muslim separatist militants have attacked symbols of Thai and
Buddhist authority, civilians, and local citizens suspected
of collaborating with the Government. There continue to be
daily incidents of violence. In March 2005, Thaksin
appointed a National Reconciliation Commission (NRC) headed
by highly respected former Prime Minister Anand Panyarachun
to look for alternative solutions to the long-running
insurgency. The NRC is expected to present its findings
sometime this month.


11. (C) The RTN does not play a role in addressing the
situation in the South. Nonetheless, Thai officials may ask
you for U.S. equipment and technology such as UAVs. We
suggest you be non-commital. There are widely circulated
rumors among ethnic Malay Muslims that the U.S. has fomented
the violence in the South in order to justify a U.S. security
presence there. This has made the RTG very sensitive about
any visible U.S. assistance aimed at the South. You should
be aware of these concerns when discussing offers of possible
U.S. assistance.

HARRIERS


12. (C) The RTN, like the other services, does not have a
long-range vision of what Thailand's maritime security needs
are, what threats Thailand might need to counter, or what
equipment it should procure. As a result, its inventory
includes a wide variety of equipment of questionable utility.
One example is its VSTOL Carrier, the Chakri Naruebet.
Thailand procured the carrier from Spain and, at the same
time, bought eight used AV-8 Harriers. These aircraft are no
longer airworthy. For several years, we have been urging the
Thai to use their carrier as a helicopter platform. A number
of RTN officers agree and have supported more training for
helo ops from the Chakri Naruebet. However, another faction
within the RTN continues to ask us for more Harriers. If you
are asked for AV-8's, you may wish to underscore that we have
no surplus Harriers due to their use elsewhere and urge the
Thai to continue to develop their carrier as a helicopter
platform.

NAVAL HAWK (MH-60S) HELICOPTER


13. (C) The RTN has expressed an interest in increasing the
size of its helicopter force. One option is to purchase four
of the new Sikorsky MH-60S Naval Hawk. With its design
emphasis on multi-mission capabilities, most particularly
logistics, SAR and light attack, coupled with the fact that
it is marinized for shipboard operations, make this aircraft
ideal for the roles and missions of the RTN. Although the
RTN wants the MH-60S, it has been experiencing sticker shock
and has had difficulty getting the funding required through
the budgetary process. You may wish to ask your
interlocutors whether the RTN is willing to push for the
funding required to purchase four aircraft as planned.

WE LOOK FORWARD TO YOUR VISIT


14. (U) Have a safe trip. I look forward to catching up and
giving you an update on the political situation.
BOYCE